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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Posted by Jay Caruso on September 08, 2015 27 Comments
The 2016 Presidential candidates from both parties are giving only sporadic attention to the refugee crisis currently gripping most of Europe. Hillary Clinton has been relatively quiet, aside from comments stipulating a need for the "entire world" to play a part. Democrat hopeful Martin O'Malley has been a bit more vocal, asking for the United States to take in 65,000 refugees:
"I support the call from humanitarian and refugee organizations for the United States to accept at least 65,000 Syrian refugees next year," he said in a statement Friday. "If Germany -- a country with one-fourth our population -- can accept 800,000 refugees this year, certainly we -- the nation of immigrants and refugees -- can do more."
On the Republican side, Carly Fiorina has been out front on the issue. She was asked about the subject on Face The Nation and didn't hold back: https://youtu.be/ee6wE04-gtU?t=3m45s

Posted by Amy Miller on September 08, 2015 18 Comments
Remember when winning an election meant actually talking to voters about the various candidates' records and achievements? No? Me neither. Okay, that's a stretch; but so far this cycle, even with our very crowded and very deep bench, we've seen a lot of talk, and not a lot of action when it comes to actually explaining to those elusive primary voters why X or Y candidate is the most qualified to sit in the Oval Office. Jeb Bush's latest TV campaign manages to toe the line between touting his record as Florida governor, and hitting back at fellow GOP presidential hopefuls who (and I'll put this gently) have allowed rhetoric define their candidacies. Watch:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on September 06, 2015 129 Comments
As political pundits struggle to find an explanation for Trump's indisputable success in the GOP 2016 presidential primary contest, Josh Barro wonders if Trump is the candidate reform conservatives are seeking.  He writes:

For the last few years, a small but prominent group of conservative writers and thinkers has urged the Republican party to rethink its economic agenda with a greater focus on the needs of the middle class. The so-called reform conservatives have criticized the G.O.P.’s economic prescription of cutting entitlement programs and tax rates (especially on high earners) as unresponsive to the concerns of workers earning stagnant wages.

“Reform conservatism is based on a recognition that the American economy has not served middle-income people well, not just since the crisis of 2008 but at least since the year 2000,” said David Frum, the prominent Canadian-American conservative journalist and former speechwriter for George W. Bush who serves as a senior editor at The Atlantic.

Posted by Mike LaChance on September 06, 2015 48 Comments
Early in the 2016 cycle, the Republican establishment pushed Marco Rubio aside in Florida and put its money and support behind Jeb Bush. That decision has created a scenario which could rob both candidates of the state's highly coveted delegates. Jim Newell of Slate reported:
Has the Republican Establishment Created a Monster? Last fall, when Jeb Bush was still mulling a bid for the presidency, Bloomberg Politics reported on what was considered then—and is still considered now—Bush’s greatest advantage as a presidential candidate: His ability to separate wealthy donors from vast sums of money quickly. “Unlike his competitors,” the thinking went, “Bush could lure donors off the fence in a hurry, without undergoing a hazing trial to test skill and stability.” That is precisely what happened. Instants after announcing over the winter that he was “seriously considering the possibility of running for president,” Bush and his team set up the Right to Rise PAC and super PAC to serve as cash receptacles for eager GOP establishment donors. The money rolled in, and by July the super PAC announced that it had met its goal of raising more than $100 million in the first six months of the year.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 06, 2015 3 Comments
This week top presidential contenders from both parties journeyed to Puerto Rico to talk economics, health care, and the future of the commonwealth's place in American politics. Puerto Ricans won't vote in the presidential election, but their 23 delegates could mean the difference between life and campaign death in a field as crowded as the GOP's is, and the Democratic Party's is likely to become; and both Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio appeared determined to stake their claim. Their events were only miles apart, but represented stark differences in the way the two candidates are courting voters. Marco Rubio played to a packed neighborhood bar, and made his speech (mostly in Spanish) while unabashedly wiping the sweat from his face. He made a point to jab at Clinton, referencing the scandal surrounding her private server, and predicting that her vision for Puerto Rico would be limited to the same policies that have contributed to the country's current fiscal crisis. From the AP:
Rubio said the island faces multiple challenges, but remained firm that allowing its municipalities and agencies to declare bankruptcy is not the answer. "I don't believe Chapter 9 would solve Puerto Rico's problems," he said, adding that the island has spent more money than it had available. "Ultimately, if there is no other option left, Chapter 9 is a viable option at that point."

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 05, 2015 34 Comments
Joining Lou Dobbs earlier this week, Former Texas Governor Rick Perry was asked to explain his stance on illegal immigration and border security. "I think we need to flesh everyone out from the stand point of of just the rhetoric. When somebody says, "let's build a wall," then I think it's appropriate to say, it's good to have this conversation, it's good that we are having this conversation that now for thirty years, this border has not been secured. We've known it's been a problem," said Perry. Dobbs interjected that he doesn't believe a single candidate talking about immigration issues because, "we've heard it all before."

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 04, 2015 247 Comments
Thursday, Hugh Hewitt interviewed Donald Trump. Among other things, Hewitt asked Trump a handful of foreign policy questions. "Are you familiar with General Soleimani?" asked Hewitt. "Yessss. Go ahead, give me a little. Go ahead, tell me," responded Trump. Hewitt explained that Soleimani runs the Quds forces, which Trump confused with the Kurds, though Trump eventually remembered who Soleimani was. Hewitt was then complementary and reminisced of the time Trump "schooled the Senate" on real-estate, and then went on to explain that he's looking for a Commander in Chief that knows who the players in the vast battlefield of Islamic terrorism. "Do you know who the players are without a score card, Donald Trump?" Hewitt asked. "I think by the time we get to office they'll all be changed, they'll be all gone, I knew you were gonna asks me things like this and there's no reason because number one, I will hopefully find General Douglas McArthur in the PAC, I will find whoever it is that I'll find, but they're all changing, those are like history questions, do you know this one, do you know that one." "I don't believe in gotcha questions, I'm not trying to quiz you," retorted Hewitt. "Well that is a gotcha question," Trump accused. And then a media controversy was birthed.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 04, 2015 3 Comments
On Thursday night, September 3, 2015, I was a guest on the Todd Herman Show on KTTH 770 AM in Seattle. Todd is a frequent reader of Legal Insurrection, and I appreciated his many compliments. We talked Scott Walker, the John Doe investigations, and Walker's struggling presidential campaign.
"In this case, their entire theory of probable cause was legally invalid, and it was so held by the Wisconsin Supreme Court.... They were trying to find a crime.... [T]he chief of the KGB under Stalin had a very famous quote: Find me the man, and I will find you the crime. And that's what this was. They wanted to get Scott Walker, and they spent four years looking for a crime, and that's not what's supposed to happen in this country.... This was meant to get Scott Walker. They couldn't have cared less what some conservative activist was doing unless they could pin it on Walker."
* * *
"I'm a fan of his, because he just quietly went about his business and completely eviscerated the public sector union movement.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 03, 2015 41 Comments
Today, Donald Trump took a major step toward dispelling fears that his dedication to the GOP may be fleeting. After a meeting with RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, Trump held a public press conference and signed a loyalty pledge to the party. Under the pledge, he promised to support the Republican party's eventual nominee, and not run as a third party candidate. Watch:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 03, 2015 10 Comments
Thursday, a pro-Scott Walker SuperPAC announced the release of its first television ad of the campaign cycle. "Fight & Win," hits Iowa airwaves Tuesday. As the name suggests, the ad highlights Walker's experience successfully fighting unions. Unintimidated PAC announced in early August that, $7 million in television time in Iowa from September 8 through February 1, 2016 (the day of the Iowa Caucus)."

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 02, 2015 168 Comments
In Kentucky, a county clerk refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses despite the Supreme Court's recent ruling has made her way into national headlines. Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis claims her religious beliefs have created an issue of conscience which prohibits her from participating in or condoning gay marriage. Citing God's authority, Davis has stopped issuing all marriage licenses. The whole affair turned into one horrid media circus:
ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 01, 2015 90 Comments
Donald Trump thumped Jeb Bush the other day with an Instagram ad that has received a lot of attention, and a lot of free TV air time. It was Willie Horton Part 2: It was, of course, "unfair" in the sense that Bush's comment about Act of Love related to illegal immigration in general, not those crimes. But it was brilliant political theater. Trump has been relentless in going after, prodding, and yes, emasculating the person who he viewed as his lead competition. Allahpundit describes the approach:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 01, 2015 11 Comments
Late Tuesday afternoon CNN announced an amendment to the rules for its debate scheduled for September 16. CNN's original rules included time-specific polling data that did not accurately mirror current GOP primary field standings. In particular, Carly Fiorina's rapid rise in the polls. Last week, a spokeswoman from CNN said the network would not yield to candidate complaints, saying:
“Our criteria are totally appropriate and we have been absolutely transparent about them throughout. If the Fiorina campaign had an issue with them they could have raised it when we published them in May. They did not,” the spokeswoman said. “Revising the criteria on the eve of the debate at the demand of and solely for the benefit of one particular candidate is not something we have done in the past, and we will not do it now.”
Mounting pressure from news outlets, public figures, and Carly Fiorina's campaign seems to have caused CNN to reconsider. The network explained that a lack of national polling data was to blame. With a significantly greater number of national polls taken during the same timeframe in previous election cycles, CNN claims they had no reason to believe this cycle would have rendered a polling deficiency. Rather than look to national polling averages in data collected from July to September, CNN has amended the debate qualification criteria so that rankings will be decided based on polling data released from August 7 to September 10.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 01, 2015 61 Comments
During the first Republican presidential debate earlier this month, all hell broke loose after an exchange on the "war on women" between debate moderator Megyn Kelly and contender Donald Trump. The furor over Kelly's snark, and Trump's audacity, boiled over into a weeks-long debate between those convinced that Kelly had wrongfully attacked Trump, and those who felt like Kelly's question about Trump's tone toward women was fair. So, who won? I'm not ready to call this for either side yet (there's still plenty of time for either party to reload) but polling data suggests that as of right now, Donald Trump has come out on top over Fox News. From Public Policy Polling [emphasis mine]:
Trump is winning his fight with Megyn Kelly. When we last polled her in December of 2013 her favorability with Republicans nationally was 44/9. Her favorability is in a similar place now at 42% but her negatives have shot up to 20%, largely because she's at 20/43 with Trump's supporters.
Trumps supporters are angry about the way the debate exchange went down, and it shows.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on August 31, 2015 12 Comments
Though the media vultures circle, Governor Rick Perry's campaign is not dead. Saturday, Perry joined Fox News to discuss among other things, the state of his presidential campaign. Shannon Bream asked, "Let's talk about where you go from here. There've been chatter about staffers leaving, payroll not being met. Where do you stand right now, how do you plan to move forward in key places like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina?" "Well I tell people I've been broke before, whether it's in my personal life or whether it's as the Governor of Texas. We had a $10 billion budget shortfall in 2003. You cut back, you make the reductions that you need to make and you move ahead and that's what we're doing," said Perry.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on August 31, 2015 59 Comments
Donald Trump has surged to the top of the Republican field based not only on outsider status, but immigration. Specifically, frustration and anger regarding illegal alien criminals. Early in his surge I wrote:
But something happened on the way to the denunciations and purges [of Trump]. Kate Steinle was murdered in San Francisco, a sanctuary city. Steinle was killed in broad daylight on a popular pedestrian pier in a business and tourist district, by an illegal immigrant with a long criminal record who had been deported five times and recently was released from custody…. In the wake of the murder of Kate Steinle, many Republican candidates have denounced the sanctuary-cities agenda. There is talk of withholding funding from cities that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities. But who among the Republican candidates has stood side by side with the families who have lost loved ones to illegal-immigrant criminals? Trump did….”
Now Trump is thumping his favorite target, Jeb Bush, with the issue in a brutal new Instagram Ad:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on August 31, 2015 14 Comments
Scott Walker joined Chuck Todd on Meet the Press Sunday. The Wisconsin Governor answered questions ranging from foreign policy to securing the border. Following the interview, numerous headlines suggested Scott Walker was gung-ho about making our northern border a little more pronounced. An Associated Press wire story written by Kevin Freking reported, "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is putting a new twist on the topic of securing the border, a staple among the GOP candidates running for president, by pointing north." Written to imply Walker introduced the idea of a Canadian border wall as part of a discussion on immigration enforcement, that's simply not the case. Chuck Todd introduced the idea and asked Walker if he'd build a northern wall. "Why are we always talking about the southern border and building a fence there, we don't talk about our northern border," said Chuck Todd. "If this is about securing the border from Mus-- securing the border from potentially terrorists coming over, do you want to build a wall north of the border too?"

Posted by William A. Jacobson on August 30, 2015 70 Comments
In an electorate demanding a dismantling of the status quo, Scott Walker should be a natural favorite. There is no candidate in the Republican field who has delivered the institutional-level blow to the left-wing that Walker did by passing collective bargaining reform in Wisconsin. It wasn't an easy fight, and it would have been easy just to compromise to get the howling crowds to go away. It was what I called Wisconsin’s long, strange trip:
Police insurrections.  Palace guards.  Catch a Senator contests.  Doctors behaving badly.  Massive national solidarity protests which weren’t.  Identity theft as political theater.  Shark jumping.  Legislators who run away to other states.  Bus bang bangs.  Protesters locking their heads to metal railings and pretending to walk like Egyptians.  Beer attacks.  Canoe flotillas.  (alleged) Judicial chokeholds.  Tears falling on Che Guevara t-shirts at midnight.  Endless recalls.  And recounts.  Communications Directors making threats.   Judges who think they are legislators (well, I’ll grant you that one is common).  V-K Day.  Hole-y warriors.  Cities named Speculation and Conjecture.
But in a quiet way, he just kept on keeping on. And the result, including surviving a recall election, dealt a body-blow to Democrats unlike anything any other Republican presidential candidate can claim. Walker also had other, though less obvious, conservative reforms. And he did all this as the conservative movement in Wisconsin was under full-blown assault by the John Doe prosecutors, seeking to isolate Walker and bring him up on charges. After several years of investigation and ruined lives, they never got nothing on Walker.
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