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Polling Tag

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 28, 2015 11 Comments
Still ten months away from New Hampshire's primary, and with only one official candidate, this election season is sure to be a horse race. A poll released by Suffolk University Thursday shows Jeb Bush and Scott Walker taking early leads among likely voters. Conducted between March 21-24, Jeb Bush is the early favorite of 19%, with Walker trailing just behind at 14%. According to Suffolk University:
Rand Paul (7 percent), and businessman Donald Trump, who was testing the waters in New Hampshire last week, (6 percent). Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who on Sunday night tweeted his intention to run for president, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were tied at 5 percent each, while Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson tied with 3 percent. Ten other candidates received less than 2 percent, and 24 percent were undecided.
An incredibly crowded field, splintered special interest groups, PACs galore, and a primary race starting 20 months before the election, the 2016 election cycle is sure to be a fun one. Patrick O'Connor explains what this means for candidates joining the race:
The candidate field looks unusually crowded, with more than a dozen contenders appealing to different slices of the GOP. The rise of super PACs allows candidates to stay in the race longer than before. And nominating rules meant to compress the process may complicate a front-runner’s ability to amass the delegates necessary to win.

Posted by Amy Miller on February 19, 2015 69 Comments
Even though the all-out battle to "raise the wage" has fizzled, Americans still have workers' rights on their minds---and polling data shows that they may be more sympathetic to higher wages and more lenient workplace conditions that we previously thought. A new poll of adult Americans (not just "likely voters") shows that more than half the country supports raising the minimum wage, as well as worker-friendly changes to laws governing paid sick leave and parental leave. Via the AP:
Proposals to increase the federal minimum wage, as well as to require employers to give paid leave to their employees, find few objections among Americans as a whole. Six in 10 Americans favor raising the minimum wage, including nearly half who are strongly in favor, the AP-GfK Poll shows, while only 2 in 10 are opposed. Six in 10 also favor requiring all employers to give paid time off to employees when they are sick, while two-thirds favor requiring all employers to give time off to employees after the birth of a child. Among Republicans, about half support requiring employers to give paid sick leave and 55 percent support a requirement for paid parental leave. But the minimum wage divides Republicans more closely, with only 4 in 10 in favor, 31 percent opposed and 27 percent not leaning either way. Half of moderate-to-liberal Republicans, but just a third of conservative Republicans, favor a minimum wage increase. About 8 in 10 Democrats and a majority of independents favor each of these workplace proposals.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 27, 2014 7 Comments
Candidates have been criss-crossing their respective districts for well over a year now, laying out their platforms and making promises about how they'll bring change to the offices they hope to hold. But judging by Gallup's latest poll, Americans aren't necessarily buying what their potential representatives are selling. With just days to go before the election, the Congressional approval rating is still hovering just above its all-time low. Via Gallup:
Congressional job approval in October matches the 14% average found so far in 2014. The current approval figure is the lowest found in October of a midterm election year since Gallup began tracking this measure in 1974. Gallup has found that low congressional approval ratings before midterm elections are linked to higher seat turnover, especially for members of the president's party. For example, congressional job approval in October was 21% in 2010, and 23% in 1994, two years when the president's party lost a large number of seats.

Posted by Mike LaChance on October 18, 2014 11 Comments
Let's face it, Alison Grimes hasn't been helped by any of her recent missteps regarding whether she voted for Obama. She repeated the refusal to answer the question on local TV again:
U.S. Senate Candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes continues to refuse to say who she voted for in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. On Friday, Grimes sat down with WYMT’s Steve Hensley for a taping of an episode of “Issues & Answers: The Mountain Edition.” Here is an excerpt from the interview: Steve Hensley: “You've also said in the past that you voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 presidential primary so what's the difference?” Secretary Grimes: “In 2008 I was not Secretary of State and what happened at that convention is all on record so nothing that wasn't already fully disclosed was offered up. It's a matter of principle as I told Bill Goodman, I'm the chief elections official. It is a constitutional right provided in Kentucky's constitution for all Kentuckians to cast their ballot in privacy.” Hensley: “If President Obama offered to campaign for you in Kentucky, would you accept?” Grimes: “Well, I've said I speak for myself, Senator McConnell doesn't understand that. He and his henchmen have spent about 50 million dollars trying to put Barack Obama on the ballot this year. He's not, I am.”

Posted by Amy Miller on October 14, 2014 5 Comments
Any reasonable person keeping up with the news cycle knows that Democratic leadership doesn't inspire much confidence in the American people. Legislation dies in the Senate at the hands of a petulant majority leader; both the IRS and the DOJ have come under fire for targeting Americans based on political affiliation; our President golfs while the Middle East burns. In fact, one might say the only thing Democrats are really good at is riling up the base over token "hot button" issues that never go anywhere in Congress, but make for good primetime talkathon fodder. A new poll released by Gallup yesterday has quantified the skepticism of the American people, and shows empirical proof that the games Democrats play have serious consequences when it comes to the level of trust voters have in their ability to lead on the major issues. In late September, Gallup asked registered voters to rate the importance of 13 preselected issues, and then to identify which party they believed would do a better job handling those issues. The results looked like this: h7fjmcrciu6d7y5yx_-zjq

Posted by Amy Miller on October 06, 2014 5 Comments
According to a recent Gallup poll, voters will be sending a message to President Obama---and it may not bode well for Democrats. Out of the just over 1000 registered voters surveyed, 32% of respondents said that their vote in the midterms would serve as a message of opposition to Obama; in contrast, 20% of those surveyed said that their vote would serve as a message of support. Gallup's writeup of the poll explains why this is significant in terms of Republicans' chances in November:
Gallup first asked this question in 1998, the year Republicans were moving toward impeaching President Bill Clinton for lying about his affair with a White House intern. That year, when Clinton's approval rating was 63%, more voters said their choice of candidate in the fall election would be made to show support rather than opposition to Clinton. Democrats had a strong showing in that fall's elections, gaining seats in the House of Representatives, bucking the historical pattern by which the president's party loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. In the next midterm election, voters by an even larger margin said their vote would be made to support rather than oppose President George W. Bush, who had a 66% approval rating at the time of the elections. These attitudes were consistent with the eventual outcome, as Republicans increased their majority in the House and gained majority control of the Senate.
Gallup Registered Voters Message 2014 Election October That's the shot; now here's the chaser: out of registered voters polled, 58% Republicans said that their vote would act as a message of opposition to Obama, while only 38% of Democrats polled said their vote would act as a message of support.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 17, 2014 17 Comments
A new poll by Gallup shows that overall trust in the mass media has bottomed out at its previous all-time low of 40%. Via Gallup:
Prior to 2004, Americans placed more trust in mass media than they do now, with slim majorities saying they had a "great deal" or "fair amount" of trust. But over the course of former President George W. Bush's re-election season, the level of trust fell significantly, from 54% in 2003 to 44% in 2004. Although trust levels rebounded to 50% in 2005, they have failed to reach a full majority since. Americans' trust in the media in recent years has dropped slightly in election years, including 2008, 2010, 2012, and again this year -- only to edge its way back up again in the following odd-numbered years. Although the differences between the drops and the recoveries are not large, they suggest that something about national elections triggers skepticism about the accuracy of the news media's reporting.
The fact that trust in the MSM dips in election years isn't a surprise, and it says a lot about the media's place in America's electoral process. If only 40% of Americans trust what the media is saying, does the media play as big a role in swaying votes left as it once did? The midterms should be a good indicator of this, although I think "trust" has less to do with overall effect than does the constant bombardment (and and hero worship, in some cases) of one name over another.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 12, 2014 17 Comments
Rasmussen Reports has released new data showing that just 63% of likely U.S. voters know which political party controls the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Twenty percent (20%) mistakenly believe Democrats control the House, while 17% are not sure. Similarly, 18% think the GOP is in charge in the Senate, but 19% are not sure. ... This is even less awareness than voters expressed in March of last year. Remember, too, that these are respondents who are the likeliest to vote this November and so presumably are more politically aware than most other Americans.
Less than sixty days out from the midterms, and 47% of our most well-informed voters have no idea what this election is about. No wonder the media gets away with murder every time they report on Congress. I've written before about the dangers of pulling away and limiting conservative outreach to voters we're reasonably sure are comfortable with our platform. Polling data like this should only serve to reenforce that idea; unless we are reaching outside of the bubble, we're leaving valuable votes on the table:
Women and those under 40 are less aware of who’s in charge of both congressional chambers than men and older voters are. Republicans are more aware than Democrats and unaffiliated voters, but a sizable number of GOP voters don’t know which party controls which house of Congress.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 04, 2014 11 Comments
Rasmussen released a poll this week revealing that only 25% of likely voters believe that America is heading in the right direction. Just one year ago, this viewpoint was expressed by 30% of likely voters. Via Rasmussen:
This is up two points from the week before which tied the lowest level of confidence since last October during the temporary government shutdown. The number who say the country is heading in the right direction has been below 30% for most of this year. Early last October during the shutdown, confidence in the country’s course fell to 13%, the lowest finding in five years. Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters now think the country is headed down the wrong track. This finding is down three points from 69% a week ago, the highest negative finding since last November. Eighty percent (80%) felt the country was on the wrong track in early October 2013.
Notably, 70% of likely voters not affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic Party believe that the country is on the wrong track---which exceeds the average by 4 points. This latest poll comes at a time when President Obama's approval rating is hovering above his all-time low of 38%. With just 41% of Americans willing to admit they approve of the way the President is doing his job (down 2 points since August 24,) Republicans are finding themselves with a key strategic advantage as we move into the last 60 days before the November elections. gallup approval sept 3

Posted by Amy Miller on July 03, 2014 20 Comments
A Quinnipiac University National Poll released today confirms what conservatives across the country have known since 2008: that Barack Obama is a dreadful president. Via Quinnipiac University:
President Barack Obama is the worst president since World War II, 33 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. Another 28 percent pick President George W. Bush. Ronald Reagan is the best president since WWII, 35 percent of voters say, with 18 percent for Bill Clinton, 15 percent for John F. Kennedy and 8 percent for Obama, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Among Democrats, 34 percent say Clinton is the best president, with 18 percent each for Obama and Kennedy.
Meanwhile, just under half of voters polled believe that America would be better off with Mitt Romney at the helm:
America would be better off if Republican Mitt Romney had won the 2012 presidential election, 45 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say the country would be worse off.
There are two takeaways from this poll, and only one of them has to do with the fact that the majority of Americans are experiencing some serious buyer's remorse over all the "hope and change" happening down on the border/in Benghazi/at our VA hospitals.

Posted by Casey Breznick on June 19, 2014 1 Comment
A poll released this week suggests that a majority of Cuban-Americans living in Miami favor ending the Cuban trade embargo. A finer reading calls those results into question. The poll, conducted by Florida International University (FIU) professors Guillermo J. Grenier and Hugh Gladwin for the Cuban Research Initiative, finds that 52% of all Cuban-Americans and 51% of Cuban-Americans registered to vote favor ending the 54-year long embargo that restricts all imports of Cuban goods and most exports to the communist island. 2014 FIU Cuba Polll Favor Embargo section Though, since the study has a margin of error of 3.12 points, a 52-to-48 spread is a virtual tie. Professors Grenier and Gladwin have conducted the FIU Cuba Poll every year since 1991. Its respondents are 1,000 randomly selected Cuban-Americans above age 18 living throughout Miami-Dade County.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 28, 2014 17 Comments
At this point, I'm used to support for the Tea Party being mischaracterized in news coverage of polling.  The negative always is the focus, and actual analysis of the persistency of support hovering between 1-in-4 and 1-in-5 Americans is ignored: With the release of the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, the strength of the Tea Party has been ignored in favor of focus on rifts in the Republican Party and the generic congressional ballot looking better for Republicans.  Those other topics are important and worthy of coverage, but why isn't the surge in Tea Party favorability since the partial government "shutdown" getting coverage? Wait, what?!  Favorability of the Tea Party has surged since the partial shut down of some of the government?  Isn't the narrative supposed to be that the Tea Party is toast? Here are the internals for the NYT/CBS poll.  Favorability has risen from 14% in late October to 21% currently! Surge! Unfavorability has dropped by 5% too. Overall favorability actually has returned to its historical norm, but that in itself is a story. An overwhelming majority do not have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party, with almost half undecided or not having heard enough.  Most of the unfavorability comes from Democrats: CBS-NYT Poll February 2014 Q 70 Tea Party Favorability You could slice and dice this into great headlines reflecting well on the Tea Party in America.  But you won't see those headlines. Why the surge in favorablity and decline in unfavorability? Perhaps it's because the massive media attack on the Tea Party after the "shutdown" was overblown, and the Tea Party was proven correct on so many things, particularly Obamacare. As to whether the Tea Party has too much influence, the numbers also are postive although not dramatic:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 06, 2013 29 Comments
At which Democrats should start freaking out. The polling just keeps getting worse and worse.  A couple of months ago the generic congressional election polling was having Democrats and Establishment Republicans (yes, there is such a thing) ready to wrap the death of the Republican Party around the necks of Ted Cruz and Mike Lee. Good times, good times, for Democrats. It was a false prognosis, because Cruz and Lee were trying to stop the disaster known as Obamacare. The legacy will be Democrats going to the mat to protect and preserve Obamacare. If Democrats owned Obamacare before, as a result of the efforts of Cruz, Lee and others, Democrats swallowed Obamacare whole in September. Now everything has changed because Obamacare and Democrats are one and the same. Via Hot Air, this chart which caused Charlie Cook to declare Holy Sh-t! (my paraphrase), should make Democrats want to regurgitate their Obamacare feast:
The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.
Congressional Generic Polling Data Chart 12-6-2013 While many Democrats are desperate for relief from Obamacare, those who are to tied to the law's passage, like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana Purchase fame, are choosing to double down:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 04, 2013 16 Comments
Havard's Institute of Politics just released a devastating study showing a massive drop in support among Millennials for Obama and Obamacare. Bottom line is that Millennials don't like Republicans, but for the first time they don't like Obama and Democrats almost as much. Here is the key finding in the Executive Summary (at pp. 5-6):
Additionally, we found that a majority (52%) of 18- to 29- year olds would choose to recall all members of Congress if it were possible, 45 percent would recall their member of Congress (45% would not) and approximately the same number indicate that they would recall President Obama (47% recall, 46% not recall).

Harvard Survey Fall 2013 Millenial Support Recalls

The trends lines are horrible for Democrats particularly among college age students, where the gap between Republicans and Democrats has narrowed significantly:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 19, 2013 19 Comments
We have addressed many times recently the misleading claim that support for the Tea Party Movement was at historic lows or reflected the near-end of the movement: The ABC News - Washington Post poll released just after midnight has generated headlines for the sharp decline in Obama's favorability ratings by just about every measure, and the growing unpopularity of Obamacare. But there is a hidden gem in the poll that is not receiving much attention.  Support for the Tea Party movement is at 38% for all registered voters, not far below the 41% approval rating and 46% favorability rating for Obama.  Moreover, 46% think the Tea Party has too little/just about right influence versus 43% who think it has too much influence.  49% think the Tea Party political views are about right or too liberal, versus only 40% who think too conservative. It's clear that support for Tea Party political views exceeds support for the movement, likely the result of years of demonization, culiminating in the recent Democratic Party eliminationist rhetoric directed at the Tea Party. In the serious of screen shots below, you can see some interesting details, including that Tea Party support comes from the more educated, and even has substantial support among non-whites, although lower than among whites.
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