Opposition to Tea Party drops to near-record low
![Gallup Tea Party Support Chart 9-26-2013](https://c3.legalinsurrection.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Gallup-Tea-Party-Support-Chart-9-26-2013.png)
I'll have to defer to pollsters as to whether this is consistent with professional polling protocol. PPP has admitted that it deliberately did not release a poll showing that Colorado State Senator Angela Giron was likely to lose the recall election by a wide margin: We did...
Politico creates the narrative it wants from unhelpful numbers...
Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena. Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths. This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the...
I have received a good reaction to my post, If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?, in which I call non-statistical BS to Nate Silvermania. Dan McLaughlin, On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed examines Nate Silvermania, and links to me for a non-numbers...
Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize. I don't know if it's right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for...
The polling this year is insane. Same state, same time period, wildly different results from poll to poll. Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Wisconsin; Marquette has Obama up 8. The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) has Scott Brown up 2; Suffolk has Elizabeth Warren up...
I have no implicit pro- or anti-Nate Silver bias. He was a journolist and in 2008 got some secret help with his predictions from the Obama campaign, but since joining The NY Times I think he has raised his game. I find the whole focus on Silver and...
Noted University of California - Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong has figured out why Mitt Romney is so far ahead in the Gallup tracking poll of likely voters. His theory is that Obama supporters like him are only now figuring out where to vote, so they do not...
It seems that all anyone is talking about is polling showing Obama pulling ahead. Some of the polling says a little, some says a lot at least in certain swing states, particularly Ohio. I understand and have listened to all of the explanation as to why...
The ancient "heathen proverb," often applied to those who attempt to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, seems appropriate to Republican presidential candidates and Pennsylvania. New GOP-commissioned poll puts Romney 1 percentage point behind in Pa. In contrast to other recent surveys, a new Pennsylvania poll commissioned by the...
Defeatism is so last weekend. Via WaPo: Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy. The survey shows that the...
PPP finds Todd Akin still leads Claire McCaskill, and that the numbers have not changed much since the controversy broke: Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the...
Paul Rahe (via Instapundit) compares the polling punditry to those who could not see the collapse of the Soviet Union coming because they were too focused on minutiae: When I read Nate Silver, Sean Trende, Charlie Cook, Jay Cost, and the others who make a profession...
Jay Cost doesn't see malevolent intent, just a history of oversampling Democrats consistently across a variety of polling organizations: The clear answer is: they skew Democratic. In fact, every recent registered voter poll with party spreads I could identify had a Democratic advantage that exceeded the...
I posted last night about how Obama's support among a core constituency, Jews in New York, has cracked. Support for Obama also is cracking among blacks in North Carolina: President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the...
What is your political mood right now? 1-10, worst-to-best. Poll open until 10 a.m. Eastern, Thursday, March 1, 2012. What is your political mood right now? (1-10, worst-best)...
From Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg (h/t @ChuckTodd): The President and the Democrats are indeed doing very well at the outset of 2012, and the Republicans are doing pitifully. They are not unrelated. Republicans in Congress and in the primary battles are driving independents into the Democrats’...
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