Polling | Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion - Part 13
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Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 08, 2016 103 Comments
Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

Idaho · 32 delegates

Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

Posted by New Neo on January 10, 2016 25 Comments
I realize that at this point polls don't matter too much, if at all. But they still interest me, because they're the best evidence we've got about public opinion. They can also tell us something about trends, and the trend for Hillary right now appears to be down. The newest national poll is from Fox, based on phone interviews that were conducted from Jan 4-7 and featuring 1006 registered voters, the vast majority of whom said they intend to vote. For Republican respondents the margin of error was 5%, which is rather large. For the entire survey, the margin of error was 3%, which is more typical but still worthy of note when the figures are close. It's very interesting to see what's happening with the projected head-to-head battles of some of the Republican leaders against Hillary Clinton. Mostly the results seem to preserve the patterns each candidate has already established for quite some time, with Rubio doing the best of all (a +9 lead, more than he's had before). Cruz is next with a +7 lead (also bigger than he had before), and Trump has a +3 lead.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on December 23, 2015 11 Comments
Whether it's an Overton Window effect, an example of Boyd's “OODA Loop," or something else, Ted Cruz is enjoying a surge in both state and national polls. According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Cruz is now only four points behind the current Republican front-runner, Donald Trump. CNN reports:
Donald Trump's lead over Ted Cruz has shrunk to just 4 percentage points in the second national poll after last week's Republican debate. Trump wins 28% support in a Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday, with Cruz nipping at his heels with 24%. Following that pair is Marco Rubio with 12% support, Ben Carson with 10%, Chris Christie with 6% and Jeb Bush with 4%. The survey was in the field entirely after CNN's debate in Las Vegas on Dec. 15. Cruz has been steadily climbing and overtaking Trump in Iowa, and there is some evidence that the Texas senator is managing to perform similarly nationally.

Posted by Mike LaChance on December 20, 2015 55 Comments
Despite acting a bit more aggressive in the last Republican debate, Jeb Bush has been unable to move his poll numbers up and break away from the pack. Dana Blanton reports at FOX News:
Fox News Poll: Trump jumps, Cruz climbs, Carson sinks in GOP race Donald Trump, a candidate even Republicans once considered a side show, increases his lead yet again in the nomination race, according to the latest Fox News national poll. The poll also finds Ted Cruz ticking up, Marco Rubio slipping, and Ben Carson dropping. Trump hits a high of 39 percent among Republican primary voters, up from 28 percent a month ago. The increase comes mainly from men, white evangelical Christians, and voters without a college degree -- and at the expense of Carson...

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on November 24, 2015 17 Comments
The Obama's Administration's whitewashing of language might have played well with the social justice warrior brigade, but voters aren't buying it. A survey released by Rasmussen found 60% of likely voters believe America is at war with Radical Islam. Rasmussen reported:
President Obama, Hillary Clinton and other senior Democrats refuse to say America is at war with “radical Islamic terrorism” for fear of insulting all Muslims, but voters beg to disagree. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism. Just 24% share the president’s position and disagree. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided.
Pouring salt in the social justice wound, a whopping 56% of self-identifying Democrats also believe radical Islamist terrorists are our foe compared to 70% of those identifying as Republican. And the data just gets more interesting:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on November 22, 2015 6 Comments
In light of the terror attack in Paris and (presumably) Obama's weak performance against ISIS and bizarrely petulant performance in Turkey, terrorism now rivals the economy as the single most important issue to American voters. ABCNews reports:
Terrorism suddenly rivals the economy as the single most important issue to Americans in the 2016 presidential election -- and a year out, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds more people paying close attention to the contest than at this point in any race back to 1988. After years of dominating the political landscape, the economy now has company. Given the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris, 28 percent of Americans now call terrorism the top issue in their choice for president, compared with 33 percent who cite the economy. Nothing else comes close. Attention, moreover, is focused as never before. Three-quarters of Americans say they are closely following the 2016 race, including three in 10 who are following it very closely. That’s the highest level of attention at this point in a presidential race in polls back nearly 30 years.
According to this report:  "Partisan divisions are 33-23-36 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents."

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on October 12, 2015 2 Comments
According to a Rasmussen poll released Monday morning, more voters than ever believe terrorists have an advantage over the United States and her allies. who is winning the war on terror rasmussen Conducted from October 4-5, the poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters, asking two questions: 1) Who is winning the War on Terrorism—the United States and its allies or the terrorists? 2) Is the United States too involved in the Middle East, not involved enough, or is the involvement about right?

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on October 04, 2015 71 Comments
A poll released by Investor's Business Daily Friday shows Dr. Ben Carson sailing past Donald Trump. While Trump's numbers are steadily declining, he remains one of three contenders pulling in doubly digits in IBD's poll, the third being Senator Rubio. WEBprez100515_345.gif.cms IBD writes:
The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump. Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided. The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 03, 2015 8 Comments
A new Pew poll dropped on Friday and told us what we already know about this election cycle: American voters are ready for something different. We could have told you that months ago, citing the popularity of candidates like Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina as a prime example of been-there-done-that fatigue. The latest polling data (1,502 adults were surveyed, including 1,136 registered voters) serves to validate those candidates' rising stars More from Pew:
Since March, the share of all registered voters who say it is more important for a presidential candidate to have “new ideas and a different approach” has surged – with virtually all of the increase coming among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Today, by more than two-to-one (65% to 29%), Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say it is more important that a candidate have new ideas than “experience and a proven record.” Just five months ago, GOP voters valued experience and a proven record over new ideas, 57% to 36%.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 30, 2015 17 Comments
Republican Presidential candidates wanting a podium on the debate main stage will have to first qualify. CNBC set a 3% polling floor for the upcoming October 28th presidential debate. There will be an undercard debate, but that too has a polling floor. To qualify for the kiddie table, candidates must have received at least 1% in any one national poll -- no averages here.

Posted by Mike LaChance on September 24, 2015 44 Comments
If anyone is wondering what's behind the high poll numbers for political outsiders in this election, a new poll from FOX News has possible answers. A startling number of Republican primary voters feel betrayed by the party. Dana Blanton has the details:
Fox News Poll: Outsiders rule 2016 GOP field, support for Biden nearly doubles Most Republicans feel betrayed by their party -- and show their displeasure by supporting outsiders over establishment candidates in the GOP presidential race. Real-estate mogul Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are the favorites in the Republican race in the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election. Neither has held elected office before and yet the two of them -- together with businesswoman Carly Fiorina -- capture the support of more than half of GOP primary voters...

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on September 20, 2015 34 Comments
Following her outstanding performance in the CNN GOP debate, Carly Fiorina has overtaken Ben Carson for second place in the GOP field.  According to a CNN poll released today, both Trump and Ben Carson have lost some support, while Carly has surged from 3% early this month to 15%.

Carly Fiorina shot into second place in the Republican presidential field on the heels of another strong debate performance, and Donald Trump has lost some support, a new national CNN/ORC poll shows.

The survey, conducted in the three days after 23 million people tuned in to Wednesday night's GOP debate on CNN, shows that Trump is still the party's front-runner with 24% support. That, though, is an 8 percentage point decrease from earlier in the month when a similar poll had him at 32%.

Fiorina ranks second with 15% support -- up from 3% in early September. She's just ahead of Ben Carson's 14%, though Carson's support has also declined from 19% in the previous poll.

Driving Trump's drop and Fiorina's rise: a debate in which 31% of Republicans who watched said Trump was the loser, and 52% identified Fiorina as the winner.

Another candidate whose numbers have risen since the debate is Marco Rubio.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on September 18, 2015 17 Comments
For everything that might be wrong with large media outlets, there's no escaping the control they wield over election cycles. They possess the power to crush White House dreams or make them a reality. Which is part of why headlines like this are hilarious: media influence elections politico headline donald trump decline scott walker Yesterday, we discussed a report released by the Media Research Center that revealed CNN devoted a whopping 78% of its GOP primary coverage to Donald Trump. The skewed timeshare was reflected in the network's GOP debate held Wednesday, the first 45 minutes of which were questions about their favorite subject -- Donald Trump. The end game? Ratings. And it worked for CNN. The cycle is relatively simple: how the media churns and burns through candidates

Posted by Amy Miller on August 27, 2015 2 Comments
Quinnipiac University released a new poll today showing a slight shift in the way Democrats perceive their potential field of candidates. The numbers also indicate that those surveyed on the Republican end still crave candidates who by their nature are separated from "business as usual" in Washington. More from Quinnipiac:
Vice President Joseph Biden runs slightly better than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton against leading Republican contenders in the 2016 presidential sweepstakes, and has the best favorability rating among top Republican and Democratic candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. Donald Trump leads the crowded Republican pack with 28 percent, up from 20 percent in a July 30 national survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is the highest tally and widest margin for any Republican so far in this election. Ben Carson has 12 percent, with 7 percent each for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. No other Republican tops 6 percent and 11 percent are undecided. Trump also tops the "no way" list as 26 percent of Republican voters say they would definitely not support him. Bush is next with 18 percent. Clinton leads the Democratic field with 45 percent, down from 55 percent July 30, with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 22 percent and Biden at 18 percent. No other candidate tops 1 percent with 11 percent undecided. This is Sanders' highest tally and closest margin. Clinton tops the Democrats' "no way" list with 11 percent.
Biden rising, Clinton down, and a whole lot of love/hate for Trump. Sounds like business as usual. The people at Quinnipiac must have sensed that, because the second chunk of their data has proven a source of endless entertainment. Pollsters asked their sample to evaluate the field based on the first word that came to mind when they thought of a particular candidate. The three most common words used to describe Clinton? "Liar," "dishonest," and "untrustworthy." Also making appearances were "criminal," "crook," and the B-word: Poll Word Cloud Association Hillary Quinnipiac 8-27-2015

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on August 18, 2015 5 Comments
Polling released by Rasmussen Tuesday show's the "Hillary meter" dropping dramatically. Rasmussen explains:
Last month, we introduced this year’s edition of the Hillary Meter to regularly update public perceptions of the former first lady on her march to the White House. Why a Hillary Meter and not one for, say, Jeb Bush or Donald Trump? Because for one thing, Clinton is far and away the leader in the race for next year’s Democratic nomination, while the winner of the Republican race is anyone’s guess. Secondly, the former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of State is an internationally known and highly polarizing figure – greatly admired by many on the left, extremely disliked on the right – who may end up being the nation’s first woman president.
The Hillary Meter is not indicative of who surveyed likely voters want, but rather who they believe will win. Also of note is that individuals surveyed are likely voters and not registered voters. Likely voters tend to (but not always) have a lower propensity for election day turn out. Though the Huffington Post argues that if 2014 is indicative of future elections -- that distinction might not make much difference any longer.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 16, 2015 19 Comments
Long ago and far away I predicted that the effect on Hillary's presidential campaign of the multiple scandals would be cumulative. Since a large portion of the electorate, the younger generation, didn't know the real Hillary of the 1990s, Hillary's vulnerability was that the manufactured "nice grandma" and glass-ceiling breaker image of her would be supplanted by the controlling, paranoid figure of the 1990s. There is increasing evidence that the scandals, particularly the email scandal, is having an effect. You can see from the HuffPo Pollster chart that Hillary has been on a horrible favorability trajectory for the past two years: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating There is more evidence today, in an AP-Gfk Poll that shows Hillary's favorability dropping to 39% among all voters, and even dropped among Democrats (though still high):

Posted by Mike LaChance on July 07, 2015 20 Comments
Media bias is no longer a problem perceived only by conservative bloggers. A Gallup poll last fall found 60% didn't trust mass media but a new survey from USA Today and the Newseum Institute finds that 70% of Americans believe the media is biased. Clearly, the scandals of Brian Williams and George Stephanopolous played a role. Bradford Thomas of Truth Revolt:
Media Fail: 70% Believe News Reporting Intentionally Biased A new survey by USA Today and the First Amendment Center found that Americans' distrust of the news media has skyrocketed over the last year, the number of American adults believing news reporting is biased jumping up to 70 percent, while less than a quarter now say they trust the news media. The 2015 State of the First Amendment Survey released Friday found that only 24 percent of American adults believe that "overall, the news media tries to report the news without bias," a 17-point drop from last year and the lowest number since the poll began in 2004. More than two-thirds, 70 percent, disagreed with that statement, a 15-point increase since last year.
One positive finding in the survey was an increase in support for the First Amendment.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 06, 2015 16 Comments
Frank Luntz recently conducted polling of American "opinion elites" attitudes toward Israel. The results, but not the data, were published in an article by David Horvitz, Editor in Chief of The Times of Israel, Israel losing Democrats, ‘can’t claim bipartisan US support,’ top pollster warns:
Three quarters of highly educated, high income, publicly active US Democrats — the so-called “opinion elites” — believe Israel has too much influence on US foreign policy, almost half of them consider Israel to be a racist country, and fewer than half of them believe that Israel wants peace with its neighbors. These are among the findings of a new survey carried out by US political consultant Frank Luntz. Detailing the survey results to The Times of Israel on Sunday, Luntz called the findings “a disaster” for Israel. He summed them up by saying that the Democratic opinion elites are converting to the Palestinians, and “Israel can no longer claim to have the bipartisan support of America.” He said he “knew there was a shift” in attitudes to Israel among US Democrats “and I have been seeing it get worse” in his ongoing polls. But the new findings surprised and shocked him, nonetheless. “I didn’t expect it to become this blatant and this deep.”
Read the rest of Horvitz's article for more details. The article created huge concern in pro-Israel circles, and delusional euphoria among Israel haters. But is the sky really falling on Israel? I have written a response, published in The Times of Israel.