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Polling Tag

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 12, 2017 4 Comments
For several years we have been examining Gallup and Pew surveys of attitudes among Americans of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. What we have seen is a trend of overall support for Israel reaching all-time or near-all-time highs. At the same time, there is a slice of the population in which the support has been slipping -- the left-wing of the Democratic Party. That makes sense based on a number of trends we post about unrelated to polling: The intensive global push, particularly on campuses, to demonize Israel; "intersectionality" theory which makes Israel the central antagonist in the racial and identity politics of the progressive movement; the identification of Israel with capitalism which increasingly itself is demonized among the socialist-friendly section of the Democratic Party that supported Bernie Sanders.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 07, 2016 108 Comments
This race is too close to call. A shift in any state could change the outcome. The Real Clear Politics No-Toss Ups map (Featured Image) has Hillary winning by a few electoral points. She could win by a few, lose by a few, or win by a lot. It's that volatile. Overall, she's up about 3% in national polls. You can't ignore that. I'd rather be up 3 than down 3 any day.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 19, 2016 30 Comments
As we approach the final presidential debate later tonight, the polling looks grim for Donald Trump. In a sense, Trump never really recovered from his post Democratic convention fall, when his public feud with the Khan family wasted what had been a Trump rally after the Republican convention. There was a rebound for a couple of weeks, as Trump maintained uncharacteristic composure and relative silence as Hillary's email and other scandals took a toll. But all of that went down the tubes as Trump took the bait on the "fat shaming" allegation after the first debate. Does ANYONE even remember the woman's name at this point? She was just a Clinton prop used to set up what was to come, the NBC tape of comments about groping women and the rollout of a series of women accusing Trump of groping them in some form or another.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 14, 2016 32 Comments
There are varying levels of horrible results for conservatives in the upcoming election. Based on current polling, it certainly looks like Hillary will be the next president. You can argue whether that is better or worse than the alternative for conservatives, but there is no serious argument that losing either the House or the Senate is horrible. In the case of the Senate, it will pave the way for Hillary to push through disastrous judicial nominations. And yes, expect Majority Leader Schumer to raise the nuclear option to the Supreme Court level if Democrats control the Senate by even a single (tie-breaking) vote. The Senate could go either way at present polling. But the House is what stands between conservatives and the political abyss. Think of where we would be if in the first two years of his presidency, when Obama controlled both houses of Congress, he had focused on passing a wide-ranging legislative agenda rather than focusing on Obamacare. All of the executive orders and actions that have been questioned by the courts and can be reversed by the next president would have the force of legislation. Assuming Hillary is the next president and wins in a landslide, Republican control of the House may be the last line of defense.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on October 09, 2016 116 Comments
Trump's now infamous "hot mic" comments while aboard an Access Hollywood tour bus have caused not only a flurry of GOP endorsement withdrawals and calls for his withdrawing from the race, but according to one poll released today, they've also prompted GOP voters to demand that the Republican party continue to support Trump. From a former RNC chair saying Trump's campaign "can't be salvaged" and Condoleezza Rice saying "Enough" and calling on Trump to resign to such disparate members of Congress as Jason Chaffetz, John Thune, Mike Lee, and John McCain withdrawing their endorsements, the political class on the Republican side has made its feelings about Trump in light of the most recent revelations quite clear. Equally clear, at this point, is that some Trump mega-donors and the majority of Trump voters want the GOP to stand by their man.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on August 29, 2016 17 Comments
One of my favorite articles not published at LI this year is the New York Times piece flummoxed by and bemoaning the fact that Obama's calls for gun control go nowhere and serve only to increase gun sales. Here's an excerpt:
More guns were sold in December [2015] than almost any other month in nearly two decades, continuing a pattern of spikes in sales after terrorist attacks and calls for stricter gun-buying laws, according to federal data released in January. The heaviest sales last month, driven primarily by handgun sales, followed a call from President Obama to make it harder to buy assault weapons after the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, Calif.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on August 24, 2016 92 Comments
The current polling gives little rational reason to think Donald Trump will win in November. No matter how you slice it -- national 4-way, national head-to-head, battleground states, electoral college, unfavorability -- Trump is deeply underwater, as this polling average chart at Real Clear Politics today shows: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ The trends are not any better for Trump than the averages. The two weeks after the Republican Convention were a complete disaster for Trump, from which he has not yet recovered:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on August 16, 2016 78 Comments
Electoral success is looking bleak for Republican nominee Donald Trump and his supporters. Among the conventional poll-reading wisdom is that trends, not individual polls, provide for a more accurate overview. Despite his headline popularity and ability to pull around 30% in primary elections, Trump has never polled consistently well against Democratic contender Hillary Clinton.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on August 03, 2016 77 Comments
You see, this is the problem with having a campaign predicated on the fact that you're leading in all the polls -- when polling data turns unfavorable, your alleged mandate dissipates. A new poll released by Fox News shows Hillary with a double-digit lead over The Donald. Hillary might me the least trusted presidential candidate in history, but she's still crushing Trump (if data is accurate, of course).

Posted by Mary Chastain on July 14, 2016 37 Comments
Democrat presumptive presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's poll numbers have slipped after she escaped charges for her emails at the State Department. A New York Times/CBS News poll shows that 67% of voters do not find Clinton "honest and trustworthy." In a month, she lost her 6% lead over Trump in the CBS News poll, which now puts them dead even.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on July 01, 2016 18 Comments
New polling data released from Public Policy Polling indicated 13% or respondents would rather the Earth suffer a collision with a giant meteor before voting for Hillary or Trump. Apparently, "Giant Meteor" is more popular than any independent candidate actually running for president. Giant Meteor was a particular favorite among independent voters, where it polled at 27% to Clinton's 43% and Trump's 38%.

Posted by Mike LaChance on April 27, 2016 28 Comments
According to a new poll conducted by Harvard, a majority of Millennials reject the idea of capitalism. It's no surprise that a generation of people who grew up in the era of "everyone gets a trophy" reject the idea of unequal rewards based on hard work. Millennials were educated largely by public schools obsessed with the idea of fairness and afraid in some cases to let children play the game of tag. One has to wonder if the participants responded on their iPhones. The Washington Post published the details of the poll:
A majority of millennials now reject capitalism, poll shows In an apparent rejection of the basic principles of the U.S. economy, a new poll shows that most young people do not support capitalism.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 08, 2016 103 Comments
Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

Idaho · 32 delegates

Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

Posted by New Neo on January 10, 2016 25 Comments
I realize that at this point polls don't matter too much, if at all. But they still interest me, because they're the best evidence we've got about public opinion. They can also tell us something about trends, and the trend for Hillary right now appears to be down. The newest national poll is from Fox, based on phone interviews that were conducted from Jan 4-7 and featuring 1006 registered voters, the vast majority of whom said they intend to vote. For Republican respondents the margin of error was 5%, which is rather large. For the entire survey, the margin of error was 3%, which is more typical but still worthy of note when the figures are close. It's very interesting to see what's happening with the projected head-to-head battles of some of the Republican leaders against Hillary Clinton. Mostly the results seem to preserve the patterns each candidate has already established for quite some time, with Rubio doing the best of all (a +9 lead, more than he's had before). Cruz is next with a +7 lead (also bigger than he had before), and Trump has a +3 lead.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on December 23, 2015 11 Comments
Whether it's an Overton Window effect, an example of Boyd's “OODA Loop," or something else, Ted Cruz is enjoying a surge in both state and national polls. According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Cruz is now only four points behind the current Republican front-runner, Donald Trump. CNN reports:
Donald Trump's lead over Ted Cruz has shrunk to just 4 percentage points in the second national poll after last week's Republican debate. Trump wins 28% support in a Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday, with Cruz nipping at his heels with 24%. Following that pair is Marco Rubio with 12% support, Ben Carson with 10%, Chris Christie with 6% and Jeb Bush with 4%. The survey was in the field entirely after CNN's debate in Las Vegas on Dec. 15. Cruz has been steadily climbing and overtaking Trump in Iowa, and there is some evidence that the Texas senator is managing to perform similarly nationally.

Posted by Mike LaChance on December 20, 2015 55 Comments
Despite acting a bit more aggressive in the last Republican debate, Jeb Bush has been unable to move his poll numbers up and break away from the pack. Dana Blanton reports at FOX News:
Fox News Poll: Trump jumps, Cruz climbs, Carson sinks in GOP race Donald Trump, a candidate even Republicans once considered a side show, increases his lead yet again in the nomination race, according to the latest Fox News national poll. The poll also finds Ted Cruz ticking up, Marco Rubio slipping, and Ben Carson dropping. Trump hits a high of 39 percent among Republican primary voters, up from 28 percent a month ago. The increase comes mainly from men, white evangelical Christians, and voters without a college degree -- and at the expense of Carson...
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