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Post-debate Polls: Trump Still Leads, Carly Jumps to Second Place

Post-debate Polls: Trump Still Leads, Carly Jumps to Second Place

Devastating results for Walker

Following her outstanding performance in the CNN GOP debate, Carly Fiorina has overtaken Ben Carson for second place in the GOP field.  According to a CNN poll released today, both Trump and Ben Carson have lost some support, while Carly has surged from 3% early this month to 15%.

Carly Fiorina shot into second place in the Republican presidential field on the heels of another strong debate performance, and Donald Trump has lost some support, a new national CNN/ORC poll shows.

The survey, conducted in the three days after 23 million people tuned in to Wednesday night’s GOP debate on CNN, shows that Trump is still the party’s front-runner with 24% support. That, though, is an 8 percentage point decrease from earlier in the month when a similar poll had him at 32%.

Fiorina ranks second with 15% support — up from 3% in early September. She’s just ahead of Ben Carson’s 14%, though Carson’s support has also declined from 19% in the previous poll.

Driving Trump’s drop and Fiorina’s rise: a debate in which 31% of Republicans who watched said Trump was the loser, and 52% identified Fiorina as the winner.

Another candidate whose numbers have risen since the debate is Marco Rubio.

But one established politician has seen his standing rise after flashing foreign policy chops on the debate stage. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida — identified as Wednesday’s winner by 14% of Republicans, putting him second behind Fiorina — is now in fourth place with 11% support, up from 3% in a previous poll.

In fifth place is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, at 9%. He’s followed by Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6% each, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky at 4%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3%, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 2% and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 1%.

Scott Walker, not listed above, barely registers in the poll at all (less than one half of 1%).  In the CNN pre-debate poll published on September 10th, Walker was at 5%, so this is a substantial fall in numbers.

Watch the CNN report:

Rasmussen released polls on Friday that were taken the night of the debate and the night after that asked likely Republican voters whom they thought likely to win the GOP nomination.  One Rasmussen poll question focused on Trump and found that the number of people who believed Trump would win the nomination is down for the third straight week:

Republicans lowered Donald Trump’s chances for the GOP presidential nomination for the second week in a row in Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey.

Our latest national telephone survey finds that 58% of Likely Republican Voters still think Trump is likely to be the party’s nominee next year, but that’s down from 62% a week ago and a high of 66% the week before that. The new survey includes 23% who say Trump is Very Likely to be the nominee, also trending down from a peak of 29% two weeks ago.

As with today’s CNN poll, the Rasmussen poll shows a boost for Fiorina:

Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who turned in a strong performance at Wednesday night’s debate, is now seen as the likely nominee by 41% of Republican voters, up from 16% in early May when she joined the race. But the new numbers include just nine percent (9%) who say Fiorina is Very Likely to capture the nomination.

NBC conducted an online survey that produced similar results with Carly gaining ground, Trump losing ground but still leading, and Walker losing ground.  The news is better here for Walker, however, because NBC has him at 3%.

Debates alone rarely move poll numbers in big ways, and Trump continues to lead the crowded field with 29 percent of Republican and independent voters who lean Republican saying they would cast their vote for him. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina remain on an upward trajectory, now filling in the second and third spots. Jeb Bush is holding steady at 8%, about the same level of support he’s seen since April in NBC News/SurveyMonkey polling. During that same period, Scott Walker has seen his support shrink from 12% to just 3% in our latest poll.

The results of both the CNN and NBC polls are devastating to Scott Walker.  But maybe he can recover.  Trump seems to be slowly losing ground, while it seems Carly is fast becoming the next big thing.  Her campaign is certainly adept at responding to criticism, so she may have some staying power.  What seems very clear is that Republican voters are not interested in Jeb!, Chris Christie, or John Kasich.

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Comments

Uh huh:

NBC’s Guthrie to Carly Fiorina: “If you’re explaining your record, you’re losing.”

Ahem:

This morning in CBS interview, Hillary insists: “I am a real person.”

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/hillary-insists-i-am-real-person_1033700.html

I am NOT voting for Trump. Walker is my guy.

Last election cycle on this date (September 20, 2011), Perry was on top with 28.2%; Mitt next at 19.6%; then Ron Paul at 9.8%; Bachmann at 6.8%; Gingrich at 6.2%; Cain at 5.4% and Santorum at 1.8%.
(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html)

Two cycles ago, Guiliani was on top at 28.2%; Thompson next at 22.9%; McCain third at 15.2%; Romney fourth at 9.2%; and Huckabee down on 4.1%.
(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/2008_republican_presidential_nomination-2741.html)

It’s funny, I had almost forgotten about Fred Thompson.

But anyway, as past polls show, there’s still a long way to go and lots can still change. Just ask Presidents Perry or Guiliani.

    She’ll deflate. Just wait till she’ll get hit with ads saying that she fired a person. Not a problem for Trump, but for her it is. And incidently, she doesn’t just fire people, she wants more H1B visas, taking the best jobs in the country and giving them to foreigners. And that’s when all new jobs already go to foreigners.
    In the meantime, Sanders wants protectionism.

Trump appeals to Independents, and Democrats. As well as Republicans! He’s the only candidate that I see who could reach more than 50% of voters on election day.

Also, Trump can’t be baited by the GOPe. Not by Ms. Lindsay Graham. Or the Orange Drunk. Or the chinless wonder.

Heck, CNN has learned that Trump leads them to monetary profits they’ve never seen before! Which makes this one of the biggest cards that Trump holds.

Carly Fiorina won’t be elected, anymore than she got elected when she ran for Senator Barbara Boxer’s seat. (Then, she and Meg Whitman LOST. LOST. LOST.) She hasn’t become more attractive with time, either. Though she does have an unusally Botoxed face. NOTHING MOVES ON IT! No smile lines. No frown lines. Nada. Nothing to see at all.

Whatever the field really is, it’s narrow. And, for the GOPe not choose not to pick trump would only mean they are suicidal.

Would Trump run as an independent? Perhaps that all depends on how serious Trump is to win the presidency?

Fiorina is not a conservative or an outsider.

http://townhall.com/columnists/johnhawkins/2015/09/19/the-conservative-case-against-carly-fiorina-n2053948/page/full

She’s a moderate establishment republican.

    Ragspierre in reply to pesanteur. | September 20, 2015 at 4:03 pm

    And Mr. Establishment is a BIG GOVERNMENT Collectivist running as a fraud.

      pesanteur in reply to Ragspierre. | September 20, 2015 at 4:55 pm

      So neither of the two leading candidates is a conservative.

      But only one isn’t collecting money from anybody, and only will build a wall.

      I suppose it comes down to what level of fraudulence one can accept and for what dividends. Because there will always be fraudulence.

        Ragspierre in reply to pesanteur. | September 20, 2015 at 5:02 pm

        …or how gullible you are when a snake-oil salesman tells you what his elixir with do…

        Ever ask yourself about that whole “remittance” confiscation thingy? I have.

          pesanteur in reply to Ragspierre. | September 20, 2015 at 5:15 pm

          There is no snake oil salesman in history who has refused money from people. But that’s a minor point.

          You’re simply suggesting he’s a liar about building the wall. Maybe he is. Like I said, this is the risk voters take with any candidate making any promise. It comes down to a calculation of character and of trade-offs.

          Given that the GOP establishment — of which Carly Fiorina is a part and will likely embrace if the past is useful testimony — has lied to us on nearly every issue in recent times, it seems that more people than ever are willing to take a risk. The “gullibility” contention cuts both ways. Who is more gullible — the ones who support another establishment candidate, or the ones who support Trump?

          Ragspierre in reply to Ragspierre. | September 20, 2015 at 5:35 pm

          No, no. WHY there has NEVER been a liar who wasn’t after your money! Heavens, perish the thought! Such a thing is unheard of in history!

          How ’bout we support a principled conservative like Cruz? No muss, no fuss.

        Ragspierre in reply to pesanteur. | September 20, 2015 at 5:08 pm

        “There will always be fraudulence…”

        Bullshit.

        I’ll take Cruz.

Lots of heavy breathing over Fiorina this week. Reminds me of the heavy breathing over Carson two weeks ago. You remember him? The guy now in third place?

One thing both time frames have in common: Trump is in the undisputed lead.

    One thing both time frames have in common: Trump is in the undisputed lead.

    Just as Perry was at this point in the 2012 race, and Guiliani was at this point in the 2008 race.

    Speaking of (perhaps premature) heavy breathing.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to Amy in FL. | September 21, 2015 at 2:32 pm

      One year ago Chris Christie led the polls. I’m thinking that polls ain’t worth much for forecasting and that in politics three months is an eon while fourteen months is an eternity.

NBC conducted an online survey that produced similar results with Carly gaining ground, Trump losing ground but still leading, and Walker losing ground. The news is better here for Walker, however, because NBC has him at 3%.

That is dishonest, the NBC poll has Trump gaining ground, from their August numbers at 22% to todays at 29%.

The Dem-media and the Trumpsters are allies in marginalizing a candidate who has actually governed with backbone and principle.

The same people who are complaining that “politicians all lie to us” and don’t keep their promises are rejecting Walker in favor of someone whose candidacy is based entirely on promises and celebrity and a willingness to be rude.

Go figure.

The Dem-media no doubt know perfectly well that Trump provides a lot more material for criticism than Walker does.

I won’t vote for Jeb Bush or Donald Trump under any circumstances. Walker and Cruz remain my top two.

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