Long ago and far away I predicted that the effect on Hillary’s presidential campaign of the multiple scandals would be cumulative.

Since a large portion of the electorate, the younger generation, didn’t know the real Hillary of the 1990s, Hillary’s vulnerability was that the manufactured “nice grandma” and glass-ceiling breaker image of her would be supplanted by the controlling, paranoid figure of the 1990s.

There is increasing evidence that the scandals, particularly the email scandal, is having an effect.

You can see from the HuffPo Pollster chart that Hillary has been on a horrible favorability trajectory for the past two years:


There is more evidence today, in an AP-Gfk Poll that shows Hillary’s favorability dropping to 39% among all voters, and even dropped among Democrats (though still high):

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s standing is falling among Democrats, and voters view her as less decisive and inspiring than when she launched her presidential campaign just three months ago, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
The survey offers a series of warning signs for the leading Democratic candidate. Most troubling, perhaps, for her prospects are questions about her compassion for average Americans, a quality that fueled President Barack Obama’s two White House victories.

Just 39 percent of all Americans have a favorable view of Clinton, compared to nearly half who say they have a negative opinion of her. That’s an eight-point increase in her unfavorable rating from an AP-GfK poll conducted at the end of April.

The drop in Clinton’s numbers extends into the Democratic Party. Seven in 10 Democrats gave Clinton positive marks, an 11-point drop from the April survey. Nearly a quarter of Democrats now say they see Clinton in an unfavorable light.

Perhaps most important, and as I predicted, Hillary’s compassion and honesty ratings are falling:

The survey suggests that voters aren’t sold on her reinvention: Only 4 in 10 voters say they view Clinton as “compassionate.” Just 3 in 10 said the word “honest” described her either very or somewhat well.

The full poll is here (.pdf). Republican candidates don’t do well on favorability, but many of them are unknown to the general public (Donald Trump is a big exception).

Republican Favorability Poll AP July 16, 2015

For example, look at Scott Walker’s numbers — hardly anybody knows him enough to have an opinion:

Scott Walker Favorability Poll AP July 16 2015

Most important, none of the Republicans is being anointed in the manner Hillary appears to be. Republican candidates have time to shape their images (which Dem operatives will attack early on), but Hillary is a known name who has spent years and millions of dollars on image consultants.

For Hillary, being known as not compassionate and dishonest at this early stage and on this trajectory should be particularly worrisome to Democrats.

Since Hillary has such a big operation, assisted by outside groups run by David Brock and others, there will be circling of wagons for now. But if these trends continue, anything is possible.


HuffPost Elizabeth Warren Not A Socialist cropped


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