A poll released by Investor’s Business Daily Friday shows Dr. Ben Carson sailing past Donald Trump. While Trump’s numbers are steadily declining, he remains one of three contenders pulling in doubly digits in IBD’s poll, the third being Senator Rubio.
The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.
Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.
The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.
“Have we reached Peak Trump?” IBD asked. Fiorina continues to hover around 10% with Rubio right at her heels, and while Trump and Carson continue vying for the top spot, the last few weeks indicate Carson’s popularity continues to grow, steadily whittling away at Trump’s.
Real Clear Policy’s polling averages support IBD’s claims:
Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.
“Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD’s monthly poll. “In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump’s boycott of Fox News may have set him back,” Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump’s self-imposed hiatus.
When asked on CNBC about his slipping poll numbers, Trump said that “if I fell behind badly, I would certainly get out.”
Carson’s gain comes after his controversial remarks on “Meet the Press” that he couldn’t support a Muslim for president.
Rubio’s third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won that debate, has been unable to capitalize on it with Republicans.
A new NBC poll shows similar trends:
NBC/WSJ: Trump lead in NH falls from 16 last month to just 5 today. Even worse for Trump, he falls to 6th among 'second choice' votes.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 4, 2015
Carson gained national attention late last week with a “I am a Christian” declaration following the horrific Oregon Community College shooting where reportedly, the shooter targeted Christians.
The next Republican presidential debate is scheduled for October 28.
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