Obama approval cliff dives among poor Hispanics and Non-Whites
Support holds steady among Conservative Republicans....
Support holds steady among Conservative Republicans....
Additionally, we found that a majority (52%) of 18- to 29- year olds would choose to recall all members of Congress if it were possible, 45 percent would recall their member of Congress (45% would not) and approximately the same number indicate that they would recall President Obama (47% recall, 46% not recall).The trends lines are horrible for Democrats particularly among college age students, where the gap between Republicans and Democrats has narrowed significantly:
The tea party movement rose to prominence in the early years of Obama’s presidency, helping drive a surge of conservative activism that helped flip control of the House to Republicans in 2010. At the time, according to CBS-New York Times polling, nearly a third of Americans considered themselves tea party supporters. The movement’s popularity, though faded, shows signs of growing again: A quarter of Americans in a new CBS-New York Times survey between Sept. 19 and 23 said they support the tea party, up four points from two weeks earlier."Oddly" enough, it was really hard to find the poll to which WaPo was referring. The rise in Tea Party popularity in the CBS-New York Times survey didn't get the attention of the misleading Gallup headline. I could not find any stories about that finding prior to the WaPo article. The rise in Tea Party support didn't get headlines at The Times, or at CBS News which ran this misleading headline about the Gallup poll instead, but nowhere in the article mentioned its own contrary findings: Eventually I found the poll, here it is.
I'll have to defer to pollsters as to whether this is consistent with professional polling protocol. PPP has admitted that it deliberately did not release a poll showing that Colorado State Senator Angela Giron was likely to lose the recall election by a wide margin: We did...
Politico creates the narrative it wants from unhelpful numbers...
Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena. Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths. This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the...
I have received a good reaction to my post, If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?, in which I call non-statistical BS to Nate Silvermania. Dan McLaughlin, On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed examines Nate Silvermania, and links to me for a non-numbers...
Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize. I don't know if it's right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for...
The polling this year is insane. Same state, same time period, wildly different results from poll to poll. Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Wisconsin; Marquette has Obama up 8. The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) has Scott Brown up 2; Suffolk has Elizabeth Warren up...
I have no implicit pro- or anti-Nate Silver bias. He was a journolist and in 2008 got some secret help with his predictions from the Obama campaign, but since joining The NY Times I think he has raised his game. I find the whole focus on Silver and...
Noted University of California - Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong has figured out why Mitt Romney is so far ahead in the Gallup tracking poll of likely voters. His theory is that Obama supporters like him are only now figuring out where to vote, so they do not...
It seems that all anyone is talking about is polling showing Obama pulling ahead. Some of the polling says a little, some says a lot at least in certain swing states, particularly Ohio. I understand and have listened to all of the explanation as to why...
The ancient "heathen proverb," often applied to those who attempt to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, seems appropriate to Republican presidential candidates and Pennsylvania. New GOP-commissioned poll puts Romney 1 percentage point behind in Pa. In contrast to other recent surveys, a new Pennsylvania poll commissioned by the...
Defeatism is so last weekend. Via WaPo: Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy. The survey shows that the...
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