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X marks the spot

X marks the spot

At which Democrats should start freaking out.

The polling just keeps getting worse and worse.  A couple of months ago the generic congressional election polling was having Democrats and Establishment Republicans (yes, there is such a thing) ready to wrap the death of the Republican Party around the necks of Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.

Good times, good times, for Democrats.

It was a false prognosis, because Cruz and Lee were trying to stop the disaster known as Obamacare. The legacy will be Democrats going to the mat to protect and preserve Obamacare. If Democrats owned Obamacare before, as a result of the efforts of Cruz, Lee and others, Democrats swallowed Obamacare whole in September.

Now everything has changed because Obamacare and Democrats are one and the same.

Via Hot Air, this chart which caused Charlie Cook to declare Holy Sh-t! (my paraphrase), should make Democrats want to regurgitate their Obamacare feast:

The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.

Congressional Generic Polling Data Chart 12-6-2013

While many Democrats are desperate for relief from Obamacare, those who are to tied to the law’s passage, like Mary Landrieu of Louisiana Purchase fame, are choosing to double down:

What will Democrats do if the Worst Case Scenario hits, and net-net fewer people are insured?

Things could turn around, but who would you rather be today, a Republican or Democratic member of Congress?

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Comments

Sadly, Obama already got away with postponing the beginnings of the EMPLOYER mandate until AFTER the midterms.

    JimMtnViewCaUSA in reply to pjm. | December 6, 2013 at 7:53 pm

    “Obama already got away with postponing the beginnings of the EMPLOYER mandate until AFTER the midterms.”

    Not an expert but many people say that cancellation letters are required to be send MONTHS before they go into effect.
    Thus, this is still likely to be an issue for the mid-terms.

I said it at the time and I’ll say it again… Ted Cruz punked Barry Soetero in monumental fashion. He knew his enemy’s biggest weakness (his ego) and he played it masterfully. Cruz goaded Soetero into plowing full-steam-ahead with the launch simply by demanding that he not. Like a churlish little child (oh wait…) Soetero took the bait and now those of us who have been screaming about the disaster known as ACA since 2009 are sitting here eating popcorn and loving the show. I hope 2014 is a bloodbath of epic proportions for the proggies… the marxist power mongering scum deserve nothing less.

    rabidfox in reply to Paul. | December 6, 2013 at 9:42 pm

    Don’t pat yourself on the back yet – McConnel & Boehner are getting ready to torpedo the republicans yet again with amnesty. I believe that they think that the distaste of obamacare will offset the taste of amnesty with conservative voters. I don’t think that it will, however.

    Darkstar58 in reply to Paul. | December 6, 2013 at 11:44 pm

    It wasn’t just the Democrats and Obama that the joke was played on, and they might not even be the biggest victim of the effort by Cruz.

    Instead, the biggest losers are quite possibly a Media that proudly ran around screaming as loud as they could that the Republicans, esp Cruz & Lee, were nuts and evil and just wanted to take away this fantastic law that will save hundreds or millions of peoples lives and save everyone thousands and thousands of dollars and yadayadayada

    People since have recognized how the media has actually scrutinized the admin over this law since its epic faseplant – would they be doing so if they hadn’t been praising it with their every breath to try and demonize Republicans/TEAParty only weeks before?

    bobby b in reply to Paul. | December 7, 2013 at 8:21 am

    ” . . . Ted Cruz punked Barry Soetero in monumental fashion.”

    BO is still Prezident. TC isn’t. By definition, TC cannot yet claim to have punk’ed BO in any fashion.

    Right now – even after everything that’s gone down since he told the anti-gun donor-lady right before Fast ‘N Furious “I’ve got something in the works but I can’t talk about it” – even after Libya, Iran, Israel, Resko, his minister, his birth cert, the fiercely-guarded occlusion of his personal history, the IRS, “you can keep that doctor!” – even now, he still has a reliable 43% who will vote for him no matter how many lies he eventually tells us, no matter how many Bad Folk he kills, no matter how many small children he drains of blood and then . . . well, they’ll always vote for him, and he doesn’t need many more votes, real or fake, to win.

    So, we’ve not punk’ed him yet.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to bobby b. | December 7, 2013 at 4:12 pm

      Ted Cruz didn’t claim to have punked Obama, commenter Paul did. Ted Cruz was hardly the only politician to call for the delay of Obamacare, an entirely responsible thing to have done. Any and all of the many people who made the same call – delay Obamacare – could be said to have ‘punked’ Obama.

Is is just me or does Sen. Landrieu have the classic “deer in the headlights” look on her face?

BannedbytheGuardian | December 6, 2013 at 8:11 pm

Re Mary Landrieu . I posted previously that rather than waste resources going after the senator from Wyoming via Liz Cheney that Mary was looking to be a good pickup. Ok she herself is getting a bit porkie but that is a powerful seat .

This would have the added bonus of weakening Mitch & The Mafia in their urban gulag. If you want to turn the tide you have to get into those choco cities.

Cruz set up not only Obama, but Mitch and the Gang for a fall. Who has to worry about being primaried? Whose polls are in the toilet?

Who is being saluted everywhere like a hero? It sure ain’t Mitch and the Gang who can’t stand up to the Democrats but want to pick a fight with their own party.

Remember this: when the Pubs took the House in 2010, the generic ballot looked better for the Democrats than it looks today.

Of course the Pubs benefitted from picking up a lot of marginal seats then. They gave only a few back in 2012, and they won’t lose hardly any of them in 2014 with a generic ballot that looks like this.

Charlie Cook thinks that the Pubs might pick up “half a dozen” House seats with this ballot in 2014? Try maybe TWO DOZEN. And they just might run the table on vulnerable Dems in the Senate.

All this makes the following very important for the Pubs —

1) get good conservative candidates for all the marginal seats, House and Senate

2) vet them thoroughly — no more Atkins or Murdocks

3) support them like all heck

4) when possible use the primaries to weed out squishes in otherwise safe seats (yeah, I’m looking at you, South Carolina)

5) and finally, most important of all — don’t take the bait that Axelrod, Plouffe, ValJar, Debbie Downer and the MSM are going to put out there. This isn’t about a “War on Women” or a “War on Brown People” or other such rot. It’s about Obamacare, jobs, Obamacare, the economy, Obamacare, defending America, and Obamacare. Get the message, convey the message, and stay on message.

Of course, the Pubs ARE the stupid party, so they’ll biff this, I just know it.

    Estragon in reply to stevewhitemd. | December 6, 2013 at 10:32 pm

    To gain two dozen seats in the House, Republicans would have to win virtually every competitive district as well as not lose any incumbents. After decades of gerrymandering by both sides in most states, Democrats have a structural minimum of 180-185 seats that are very safe.

    I assume that’s what Cook is thinking. The generic turnaround is unprecedented – and as Cook should well know, since it is asked of “all adults” it tends to lean Democratic. The great Republican wave of 1994 came from a final generic ballot at -2%. We weren’t very far ahead (if any) in 2010. It could grow into a wave election based on only three fronts: Obama-Care, Iran, and the deficit.

      Darkstar58 in reply to Estragon. | December 7, 2013 at 12:53 am

      “To gain two dozen seats in the House, Republicans would have to win virtually every competitive district as well as not lose any incumbents. After decades of gerrymandering by both sides in most states, Democrats have a structural minimum of 180-185 seats that are very safe.”

      In a non wave election, apparently there are actually only about 150 truly safe Dem seats at this time. In an even, 50-50 turnout election map for 2014, the Republicans would be expected to hold 235-240. If it were a 4 point Republican swing though, like 2010, then we are looking at roughly 260 likely Republican seats (that’s 2 dozen). Sites such as
      http://www.fairvote.org/fairvote-releases-projections-for-the-2014-congressional-elections#.UqKtqOJFbM8
      have detailed it out if you wanted to take a look (and it even mentions Cook in the article)

If the antics of Cruz and Lee didn’t end up hurting very much, it is certainly not due to anything Cruz or Lee did.

While both built for themselves 1 million+ email mailing lists for future fundraising off their bogus “petitions,” they interrupted what was the first month of sustained bad press coverage for Obama (Syria and Iran embarrassments, Egyptian policy failure) and diverted attention from the rollout. Even majorities of Republicans and those opposed to ACA were against using a shutdown to try to stop it.

Neither did they consult their colleagues about what they were doing. Cruz doesn’t even attend caucus meetings. That’s not leadership. It’s just grandstanding.

Pfft! Nothing in these polls that Baraka can’t overcome via a ginned-up war against [insert unstable country-of-choice].

But if he ever says, “If you like your constitutional republic, you can keep your constitutional republic.”, that’s the time to really worry.

Don’t under estimate the power of free stuff:

Prediction: Democrats will attempt to give away the store between now and elections. Minimum wage to 15, unemployment benefits forever… FREE STUFF.

ANYTHING that a fiscally sane person would oppose will be tossed up- just so Dems in danger will have something to use against GOP challengers.

Where do you think this minimum wage class warfare crap is coming from right now? It is their way of changing the subject.

    stevewhitemd in reply to Andy. | December 7, 2013 at 12:03 am

    Prediction: Democrats will attempt to give away the store between now and elections.

    Just might happen as is being done in Venezuela right now. Call it the “Nick the Mad” strategy…

Feh on the House. The GOP is already going to pick up seats there. I want to see the state-by-state Senate numbers. *That* will be informative.

JimMtnViewCaUSA | December 7, 2013 at 1:03 am

The graph at the Cook link is a beautiful thing.
The midterms are a ways away, but you owe it to yourself to click through. 🙂

Obama/Jarrett will be more an more like cornered rats as Obama’s popularity drops. While Obama (a lazy putz) will rather go into sportscasting, the commie-mommmy — and the real power behind the throne — will get more vicious and lawless.

Freddie Sykes | December 7, 2013 at 8:57 am

The Republicans need to pass clean Continuing Resolutions because the Dims are ready for another shut down and have threatened same if this is or that bill is not passed or attached to the CR. The media will latch onto anything in the House’s CR that will serve a a talking point to place blame and our short attention span nation will mainly go along with the ploy.

    J in Kitsap in reply to Freddie Sykes. | December 8, 2013 at 3:58 pm

    Yes, we should ‘fold’ on the budget CR’s this time provided it is basically continuing where we are. Do not let the spotlight move off the wonderful, amazing, smashing Ocare rollout. This wagon has a number of wheels and most seem to be falling off.

    When the Low Info Voters find that their own health care has cratered they will be looking for someone to lynch. Best no R’s anywhere in sight.

The Dem plan:

-Propose all sorts of giveaways and goodies and demonize Republican refusal to support them.

-Lard up any CR and demonize Republican opposition.

-Outmaneuver the GOP leadership to cause a government shutdown and blame it on the GOP, with media support, of course.

-Outmaneuver the GOP on ‘immigration reform’ (aka amnesty) by insisting on measures the GOP cannot accept, then demonizing them for killing immigration reform.

-Distract from Obamacare with all of the above.

The GOP plan:

-Get outmaneuvered left and right.

-Lose a sure-thing midterm.

-Blame Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, and the Tea Party.

Don’t believe it! The American voter is so stupid they qualify automatically as members of the stupid party, AKA Republicans, without having to register as republican.

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