Russia | Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion - Part 34
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Posted by Amy Miller on September 28, 2015 14 Comments
Today before the United Nations General Assembly, Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin sparred publicly over how their respective nations have approached a solution to crises in Ukraine and Syria. For both leaders, these speeches were an opportunity to regain control of a spiraling military, security, and human rights narrative that is now being influenced not only by the spread of Islamic terrorism, but the effects of mass migration out of the Middle East and Africa and into Europe. President Obama lashed out at Putin over Russia's aggression toward Ukraine and criticized Putin's leadership (or, lack thereof) on the Syrian crisis. Oddly enough, though, Obama somehow managed leave himself space to justify a partnership with Russia as a way of addressing conflict in Syria. From the New York Times:
Mr. Obama made a forceful defense of diplomacy but also castigated Russia by name multiple times in his speech for its defense of the Syrian government, its takeover of Crimea and its actions supporting Ukrainian rebels. “Dangerous currents risk pulling us back into a darker, more disordered world,” Mr. Obama said. Those currents include major powers that want to ignore international rules and impose order through force of military power, he said.

Posted by Amy Miller on September 16, 2015 0 Comments
Russia has been an important ally of Syria's during the Assad regime's four year struggle to maintain its hold on power. Moscow recently strengthened its support for the flailing Syrian military, and on Wednesday, Russian media broadcast a roundtable-style interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in which Assad placed the blame for the current European migrant crisis on Western intervention in Syria. Via WaPo:
“If you are worried about them, stop supporting terrorists,” said Assad, referring to Europe-bound Syrians. “This is the core of the whole issue of refugees.” He described U.S. and European criticism of his policies as “propaganda” that will create “more refugees.” ... Assad said that a solution to the conflict could not be found until “terrorism” is defeated. He called on Syrians to “unite” against terror, portraying his government as bulwark against groups like the Islamic State, which a U.S.-led coalition is attacking at its strongholds in Syria and Iraq. The coalition does not attack Syrian government assets. U.S. officials do not coordinate those attacks with Assad’s forces.
You can watch the full interview with Russian media here:

Posted by Vijeta Uniyal on September 03, 2015 28 Comments
As if biting off a big chunk off Ukraine in Crimea wasn’t enough, Putin is now putting Russian troops on the ground in Syria. Counting on President Obama’s continuing Foreign Policy paralysis on Syria, Russian army is reinforcing Dictator Bashar al-Assad’s air and ground forces. Neither Russia nor Assad’s Syria have any real intentions of destroying the Islamic State (ISIS) in the region. Their primary aim is to restore and maintain territorial control. Emboldened by America’s retreat under President Obama’s reign and the recent rise of its regional ally Iran in the Middle East, Russia feels confident opening up a new front in the Arab heartland. A story by Michael Weiss in The Daily Beast confirms that Russian troops are playing combat role in Syria. Previous reports from the Syrian frontlines dating back to 2013 had indicated Russian presence amidst the ranks of Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Michael Weiss writes:
Russian pilots are gearing up to fly missions alongside the Syrian air force, dropping bombs not just on ISIS but on anti-Assad rebels who may or may not be aligned with the United States or its regional allies. Several sources consulted for this story said the Pentagon is being unusually cagey about Russia’s reinvigorated role in Syria. A former U.S. military officer told The Daily Beast, “I’m being told things like, ‘We really can’t talk about this.’ That indicates to me that there’s some truth to these allegations.”
After Iran gets access to over $100 billion of frozen reserves as a signing amount for the nuclear deal, Regime in Tehran is setting about carving out a new map of the Middle East -- tightening its hold on Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Russian want to play a bigger role in this scramble for the Middle East.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on August 06, 2015 21 Comments
After the Office of Personnel Management Chinese hacking, it seems that almost no government system is secure. Now another example. From NBC News:
U.S. officials tell NBC News that Russia launched a "sophisticated cyberattack" against the Pentagon's Joint Staff unclassified email system, which has been shut down and taken offline for nearly two weeks. According to the officials, the "sophisticated cyber intrusion" occurred sometime around July 25 and affected some 4,000 military and civilian personnel who work for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Sources tell NBC News that it appears the cyberattack relied on some kind of automated system that rapidly gathered massive amounts of data and within a minute distributed all the information to thousands of accounts on the Internet. The officials also report the suspected Russian hackers coordinated the sophisticated cyberassault via encrypted accounts on social media. The officials say its not clear whether the attack was sanctioned by the Russian government or conducted by individuals. But, given the scope of the attack, "It was clearly the work of a state actor," the officials say.

Posted by Mike LaChance on July 10, 2015 8 Comments
General Joseph Dunford has been nominated to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. While testifying before congress yesterday, he made one claim that might come as news to President Obama. Phil Stewart and David Alexander of Reuters reported:
Russia is top U.S. national security threat: Gen. Dunford Russia presents the greatest threat to U.S. national security and its behavior is "nothing short of alarming," Marine General Joseph Dunford told lawmakers on Thursday as they weighed his nomination to become chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Dunford also added his voice to those Pentagon officials who have supported providing lethal arms to Ukraine to help it defend itself from Russia-backed separatists, a step that President Barack Obama has so far resisted. "My assessment today, Senator, is that Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security," said Dunford, the Marine Corps commandant, who is expected to swiftly win Senate confirmation to become the top U.S. military officer.

Posted by Amy Miller on May 11, 2015 12 Comments
Brace yourselves for an international incident: John Kerry is going to Russia...and he wants to talk about Ukraine. And Iran. And Syria. I don't think I'm out of line for assuming that some sort of disaster will come of this, even if he does manage to make progress with the increasingly belligerent and wholly unaccountable Russian leadership. This will be Kerry's first visit to Russia since 2013, and only his second as Secretary of State. The 2013 visit fell just before Russian relations with Ukraine bottomed out amid the conflict that eventually led to the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Based on statements released by both Moscow and Washington, this trip is less of a diplomatic jaunt, and more of a salvage operation. From the AP:

Posted by Leslie Eastman on March 02, 2015 8 Comments
Russia's Vladimir Putin isn't letting the untimely death of an opposition leader distract him from creating Soviet Empire version 2.0. With the Obama Administration suggesting jobs as a solution to ISIS and its brutal ambitions, the Russian leader seems to be forging a key alliance with two countries that are extremely concerned about the terrorist take-over of Libya.
Various unconfirmed reports are emerging indicating that there may be joint international action planned in Libya as early as next week. Egypt is already conducting air strikes against ISIS-linked targets in Derna, close to where Egyptian Coptics were massacred recently, as displayed in a gruesome video. Debka reports that Egypt’s president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi is planning further action in Libya, including more air strikes and possible ground troops, within a few days. According to the report, Egyptian commando and marine forces are preparing for sea landings to seize Derna and destroy the terrorist elements there. If this attack is actually launched, it will be the first time in modern times that an Arab country has sent ground forces into another Arab country. Al-Jazeera television reports that the Italian navy is getting ready to carry off sophisticated military drills off the coast of Libya as early as Monday. Although Italy claims that it will be a regular exercise, there are many more vessels taking part in this year’s exercise than have in the past, which Italy explains by saying that they are testing out sophisticated new technologies. ...Some reports indicate that Russia has hinted at a willingness to participate in a naval blockade of Libya to prevent arm supplies from leaving Libya for other countries. Russia could play a role in this because it already has a naval fleet in the Mediterranean.

Posted by Mike LaChance on December 28, 2014 19 Comments
This video has been making the rounds on Reddit and stacking up tons of positive comments. The narrator takes you through Russian history explaining how geography helped define the nation politically. Zach Noble of The Blaze provides a description:
‘Russia in a Nutshell’: Learn the Real Reasons Why Russia Is So Big — And So Brutal Geography determines destiny — so goes the historian’s saying. Does Russia’s geography explain the nation’s history of bloodshed, overbearing government, secret police and poverty — and does it explain why Vladimir Putin is such a bellicose president? In a video published on YouTube earlier this year, geopolitical guru Caspian Report took a look at Russia’s history and geography and made the essential connections: Occupying a vast, flat land without significant mountains or seas to serve as natural barriers, the Russian people were forced to become brutal and bureaucratic in order to survive. After throwing off Mongol and Tatar domination in the first half of the last millennium, Russia’s rulers found themselves in a “conquer or be conquered” situation, Caspian Report noted. Seeking security, Russia’s czars led their people on a massive quest to expand, taking over lands to the south, west and especially east. They could not keep invaders from attacking, but by taking over huge swathes of territory, Russia’s rulers could ensure that Russia always had a “backup plan” to fall back on — and that plan proved invaluable when Napoleon and Hitler came rampaging through.
Anyone with an interest in history will find this entertaining and informative:
The message in the video may explain some recent developments in Russia.

Posted by Casey Breznick on December 26, 2014 4 Comments
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas 1998. Back in 1998, there was a resurgent US economy while Europe, Japan, and emerging markets floundered. The dollar strengthened and oil prices plummeted. We also had an embattled second-term Democratic president with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress. But most reminiscent of all is what is going on with Russia. In August of 1998, Russia defaulted on its government debts after a crushing devaluation of the ruble. The 1998 Russian Financial Crisis was caused by both external shocks—the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and plummeting oil prices—and domestic woes. Quite similarly, the ruble has halved in value this year (the worst performing currency of the year), due to the plummet in oil prices. Oil and gas account for half of the Russian state’s budget and 70% of the country’s exports. Now, with oil nowhere in sight of returning to $100+ highs, the country’s ability to repay foreign debts is coming under serious doubt. Standard & Poor’s recently said there is a 50% chance it would downgrade Russian bonds to “junk” status. Even Peru and Botswana have higher credit ratings than that. Last week the Russian Central Bank hiked its baseline rate to a whopping 17% in order to restore confidence in the Russian economy. However, the drastic move has been to no avail, as ruble sellers continue to outnumber buyers. http://youtu.be/jvEPcxVfJPs?t=18s But as history has shown, the Russian Bear, especially under the auspices of strong leaders, doesn't go down without a fight.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 28, 2014 5 Comments
Last year, U.S. Embassy officials in Russia made headlines after reports surfaced that Embassy worker Ryan Fogle had been publicly arrested and accused of espionage. Now, more U.S. officials are coming forward with reports that Russian operatives are using Cold War-era surveillance tactics to keep an eye on foreign diplomats. In an ABC News exclusive, U.S. officials overseas spoke with reporters about what life is like for a diplomat in one of the most highly-surveilled countries in the world. Stories of slashed tires and hacked e-mails---things that happen during local elections in the United States, if we're honest---have given way to escalating surveillance tactics that remind officials of once-bygone KGB tactics. Via ABC News:
"Security services have traditions of behavior. Certainly, our hosts in Moscow do. They are employing old techniques and patterns of behavior that are familiar," said James Collins, the U.S. ambassador to Russia from 1997 to 2001 and now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ... "Right now, I think we are in a hostile environment in Moscow where the authorities are indeed sending the message that Americans are to be considered with suspicion," Collins said. Galeotti, the expert on Russian security, said the return to Soviet-era tactics are a symptom of power shifts within the Russian government. "It reflects a wider swing back to the good old KGB days, as some of the veterans would think of them -- days in which the Soviet security services were much more sharp elbowed and the intelligence community could operate with fewer constraints," he said.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 28, 2014 13 Comments
After Russia's March annexation of Crimea, reports surfaced of serious human rights abuses against both Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians who refused Russian citizenship. Now, threats of military action from pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine have eastern Europe on alert, and have motivated Poland to make changes to its military structure that haven't been seen since the Cold War. From the Associated Press:
[Polish Defense Minister] Tomasz Siemoniak said the troops are needed in the east because of the conflict in neighboring Ukraine. "The geopolitical situation has changed, we have the biggest crisis of security since the Cold War and we must draw conclusions from that," Siemoniak said. He said that at least three military bases in the east will see their populations increase from the current 30 percent of capacity to almost 90 percent by 2017, and that more military hardware will be moved to those bases as well. He said it was not some "nervous or radical move" but that because of this "situation of threat we would like those units in the east of Poland to be more efficient."
According to the AP report, current military establishments along the eastern border of Poland are only 30% staffed as part of a long term plan to move troops to those installations only in the event of serious conflict. This troop movement, then, is not insignificant.

Posted by Bruce Carroll on August 04, 2014 15 Comments
Things just aren't good on any front involving the relationship between the United States and Russia. The nearly-hot war between Russia and Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea and the downing of Malaysian Flight 17 are capturing the main headlines. But there's other grim news as well. First, the landmark arms control agreement signed by Reagan and Gorbachev seems to be falling apart thanks to Russian aggression.
The United States has concluded that Russia violated a landmark arms control treaty by testing a prohibited ground-launched cruise missile, according to senior American officials, a finding that was conveyed by President Obama to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in a letter on Monday. It is the most serious allegation of an arms control treaty violation that the Obama administration has leveled against Russia and adds another dispute to a relationship already burdened by tensions over the Kremlin’s support for separatists in Ukraine and its decision to grant asylum to Edward J. Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor. At the heart of the issue is the 1987 treaty that bans American and Russian ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles capable of flying 300 to 3,400 miles. That accord, which was signed by President Ronald Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader, helped seal the end of the Cold War and has been regarded as a cornerstone of American-Russian arms control efforts.
And now, even scientific and mutual defense cooperation between Russian and American nuclear scientists is decaying.

Posted by Bruce Carroll on July 30, 2014 9 Comments
In another of his frequent 'announcement drops' before entering Marine One, President Obama yesterday declared that the United States and the European Union had agreed to a new round of sanctions against Russia. These new sanctions come within two weeks of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 being shot from the sky over Ukraine.
From The Wall St. Journal:
The EU targeted the energy, arms and finance sectors, with details due soon. It's not a profile in courage: The EU only blocked future arms business with Russia, not past deals. The U.S. restricted the access of three additional Russian banks to American capital markets and blocked future technology sales to Russian oil companies. The U.S. stopped short of broader sectoral sanctions on Russia's banks. Vladimir Putin himself could be included on a future asset and travel ban list.
The question remains whether these latest moves by the West are enough for Vladimir Putin to give up his support of the pro-Russian separatists still battling the Ukrainian government on the ground in Eastern Ukraine. It is possible that the West still isn't willing to do what it needs to do to maximize the economic pressure on Putin's Russia. Again, from today's Wall St. Journal:

Posted by Bruce Carroll on July 29, 2014 2 Comments
British and American media are reporting that Ukrainian government officials have seen data from the say the downed Malaysia Airlines' black box recorders. According to these officials, the airliner suffered an explosive loss of pressure after it was punctured by multiple pieces of shrapnel from a missile. From the BBC:
They say the information came from the plane's flight data recorders, which are being analysed by British experts. However, it remains unclear who fired a missile, with pro-Russia rebels and Ukraine blaming each other. Many of the 298 people killed on board flight MH17 were from the Netherlands. Dutch investigators leading the inquiry into the crash have refused to comment on the Ukrainian claims.
Meanwhile those same Dutch investigators in charge of finding out what happened have yet to visit the crash site, view the wreckage or see the human remains from the aftermath of the downing of the plane. From CNN:

Posted by Bruce Carroll on July 27, 2014 19 Comments
Ten days after Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 was shot from the skies over Ukraine, the situation on the ground in Ukraine has gotten worse. U.S. officials released satellite images today showing proof that Russian forces have been shelling eastern Ukraine from the Russian side of the border.
The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which released the civilian-taken satellite images Sunday, said they show visual evidence that Russia has been firing shells across the border at Ukrainian military forces. Officials also said the images show that Russia-backed separatists have used heavy artillery, provided by Russia, in attacks on Ukrainian forces from inside Ukraine.

Posted by Mandy Nagy on July 21, 2014 6 Comments
The remains of nearly 200 passengers from downed Malaysia Airlines flight MH 17 have been removed from the wreckage and placed in refrigerated rail cars in a rebel-controlled area of eastern Ukraine. From ABC News:
It may be some time before the bodies of the victims of Malaysia Airlines flight MH 17 are returned to their families. In an exclusive interview with ABC News today, the leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic said they would not be turned over until international inspectors come here to inspect them. "We can and we want to give bodies to the relatives but experts have to examine the bodies here. That is international practice," Alexander Borodai said.