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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 10, 2016 31 Comments
Since neurosurgeon Ben Carson suspended his presidential campaign, rumors of a looming Trump endorsement have bounced around the poltisphere. The Washington Post reported this evening that Dr. Carson will endorse Donald Trump at a rally Friday morning:
Conservative favorite Ben Carson, who last week suspended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, plans to endorse Donald Trump on Friday morning, according to two people familiar with his thinking. The endorsement, perhaps the most high-profile nod for Trump since New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie backed him, was finalized Thursday morning when Carson met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the luxury club owned by the Republican front-runner, the people said. The sources requested anonymity to discuss private conversations. Friday’s announcement will also take place at the club in Palm Beach, Fla., where the onetime rivals will appear alongside one another at a news conference.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 10, 2016 136 Comments
As you know, I'm not for Trump for many reasons, including that making big government great again is only a mild improvement over the current situation, and potentially worse. Smaller government and more individual liberty is my benchmark, and I think that's achievable in an election cycle with fundamentally flawed Democrat candidates. But I also hope I have not denigrated Trump voters. There is a real and politically ignored hurting in America that lands a meaningful percentage of Republican voters (so far, 30-40%) comprising many cross-over Democrats into a so far unmovable voting block. I've pointed to the immigration issue and the sense of loss of country. But it may be deeper than than, going to a level I / we can't truly understand. It's summarized in an excellent article in US News, by attorney Michael A. Cooper, Jr. in North Wilkesboro, North Carolina, A Message from Trump's America:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 10, 2016 17 Comments
Presidential hopeful Sen. Ted Cruz finally has the support of one of his colleagues -- Sen. Mike Lee has endorsed him. Politico reports:
Utah Sen. Mike Lee plans to endorse Texas Sen. Ted Cruz Thursday, making him the first U.S. senator to back Cruz’s presidential bid, sources told POLITICO. In a blow to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, whose campaign is on life support as he seeks to avoid a knock-out blow in his home state Tuesday, Lee is expected to make the announcement in Rubio’s hometown of Miami ahead of Thursday night’s GOP debate. Lee is close with both senators, and he had resisted jumping into the race and potentially alienating one of them. He sat down with Rand Paul, Rubio and Cruz as the presidential campaign got underway one year ago and told them: “Look: I’m in an awkward spot because I’m really close to all three of you guys.”

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 09, 2016 51 Comments
Last night is being hyped as a Yuuuge comeback for Trump. Actually, not much changed other than the media narrative:
Last night's primary and caucus results changed the momentum in both presidential races. But they didn't significantly alter the overall math and trajectory of the two contests. Let's start with the Republican race. Donald Trump headed into last night losing some steam after Ted Cruz's gains over the weekend. And what did Trump do? He won the Michigan and Mississippi primaries by double digits over Cruz, and he even triumphed in Hawaii's caucuses. (Trump's one loss came in Idaho, where Cruz beat him, 45%-28%.) Still, the results don't truly change the overall math for Trump: He still needs to win Florida and/or Ohio to be on a stronger path to the 1,237 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination. The good news for him: His top competition in Florida (Marco Rubio) and Ohio (John Kasich) certainly don't have the political winds at their backs. Here's the GOP delegate math: Trump currently has a 93-delegate lead over Cruz

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 08, 2016 103 Comments
Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

Idaho · 32 delegates

Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

Posted by Jonathan Levin on March 08, 2016 42 Comments
The Rules Of The Republican Party deal with the organization and operation of the Republican Party, including everything from apportioning delegates to the national convention, to how to change the rules themselves. What if I told you that the RNC had a rule that under some circumstances could result in no candidate's name being placed in nomination so that the Republicans had no nominee; or create a convention deadlock because the only candidate whose name could be placed in nomination could not be nominated because he didn't have a majority of delegates as is required under another rule; or in another scenario only one candidate who didn't even have a majority of delegates would claim the nomination over the objection of the majority of delegates. If you didn't know the names of the candidates or which scenario played out, you'd say "that's absurd, change the rule." That latter scenario may very well play out, and hand Donald Trump the nomination (in the view of his supporters) even if he didn't have a majority of delegates, and even if most delegates didn't want him to be the nominee. It's all because of Rule 40(b).  Which is why if the RNC has any sense, it will change the rule as soon as possible to avoid an absurd and the undemocratic (small "d") result.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 07, 2016 193 Comments
While looking though the history of Tea Party posts at Legal Insurrection, I saw this post from April 2011, Sound the Trumpet:
There’s not much I can add to Mark Levin’s explanation of why Donald Trump does not represent the conservative or Tea Party movements.  He wasn’t there when we needed him, and he helped those who were against us.
That was at a time Trump was considering running for President in the 2012 cycle. I made the point then, as I do now, that Trump is not a conservative or a smaller-government individual liberty person. He's a big government nationalist. My point with any big government person, be it Trump, Obama or Hillary, is that once you give them the power, it's hard to get it back and you lose control over your own lives. You end up putting your faith that they will not abuse that power. If that's what you want, so be it. The link in the quote is to a post at The Right Scoop, which had an embedded audio, Levin Rips Donald Trump to Shreds:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 05, 2016 116 Comments
END OF NIGHT UPDATE -- Here's were things stand delegate wise: https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/706325250917543937 -------------------- There are a mix of caucuses and one primary today. The ones we're keeping an eye on are the Republican caucuses in Kentucky, Maine and Kansas, and the primary in Louisiana. There are a fair number of delegates at stake, and if Cruz has a good day, he could close the 100-delegate gap with Trump:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 05, 2016 25 Comments
Marco Rubio spoke at CPAC this morning. Based on the video, it looked like a full house and enthusiastic crowd. The Washington Times reports:
Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida on Saturday told the conservative grassroots that the country’s young people won’t have a chance if Democrats keep control of the White House — or if the conservative movement is “hijacked” by someone who’s not a conservative. “Being a conservative can never be about simply an attitude. Being a conservative cannot simply be about how long you’re willing to scream, how angry you’re willing to be, or how many names you’re willing to call people,” Mr. Rubio said at the 2016 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), to sustained applause. “I think there’s a growing amount of confusion about what conservatism is,” he said. “And it is time for us to understand that conservatism is not built on personalities. Conservatism is not simply built on how angry you might seem from time to time.”

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 05, 2016 31 Comments
As mentioned the other day with regard to a surge in "Move to Canada" Google Searches, there will be a collective freak out in certain places if Trump wins. The freak out has already started. The Washington Post reports Psychologists and massage therapists are reporting ‘Trump anxiety’ among clients
If there is an unofficial capital of psychotherapy, it’s New York’s Upper West Side, where it’s easier to find a therapist than a parking space. Judith Schweiger Levy, a psychologist in the neighborhood, has noticed a recent uptick in Trump references among her patients, including a middle-aged businesswoman who blurted out this week that her sister is supporting the billionaire.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on March 04, 2016 50 Comments
Ted Cruz is an excellent public speaker, and today's CPAC speech was yet more evidence of this (and look, Obama, no teleprompter!). The crowd is clearly enthusiastic about Cruz, the raucous cheers almost drown out his introduction.  Of course he takes jabs at Trump for cancelling his scheduled CPAC appearance, saying that Trump must have heard that Megyn Kelly, conservatives, libertarians, or young people would be there.  The crowd went wild.  There were a few lone voices trying to chant "Trump, Trump, Trump," but they were quickly drowned out by the CPAC audience's booing. Cruz gives a wonderful speech about the principles that make America great in the first place, something he implies is not well-understood by Trump, and he talks about how to free the economy, secure our nation, and keep Americans free in the process:  jobs, security, and liberty were his themes.

Posted by Leslie Eastman on March 04, 2016 7 Comments
In the wake of Super Tuesday, the new hero to many Democrats is the lone voter in Massachusetts who swung a district into the Bernie Sanders column. I have seen this graphic heralded almost continuously over the past days in my social media feed:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on March 04, 2016 59 Comments
While Marco Rubio won his first state (Minnesota) and surged late in Virginia and Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska for a total of four state wins, Donald Trump did very well in the Super Tuesday primaries.  So well, in fact, that conservatives are beginning to search in earnest for a means to win the GOP nomination with a conservative candidate. One such idea is being touted as the "Unity" ticket of Cruz and Rubio (or Rubio and Cruz, though this seems less likely). Writing at The Resurgent, Erick Erickson argues for this in stark terms: "Unite or Die."
To truly beat Trump and keep his supporters from completely fleeing, Trump must be beaten in the primaries, not on the floor of the convention. And it is still mathematically possible, but it requires Cruz to win Florida, not Rubio. All of this talk by Rubio voters about later states, closed primaries, and favorability ignores voter psychology and, frankly, ignores the fact that Marco Rubio’s Gang of Eight position has poisoned the well too much for too many Republican voters. It will, in fact, go down as one of the worse political miscalculations in the last quarter century. All of this talk by Rubio voters ignores that Rubio and Cruz together can win Florida and Ohio, but divided cannot and only increase the odds of either a Trump nomination or the delegitimization of the process by which the GOP will pick its nominee.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 04, 2016 180 Comments
One has to wonder if the increasing conservative attacks are the reason why Donald Trump dropped out of his CPAC appearance at the last minute. At least the Twitter chatter I've seen the past day from people at the conference was pretty hostile. And let's face it, Ted Cruz took him to the cleaners last night at the debate on conservative issues.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 03, 2016 73 Comments
This should be fun. As usual, we have live Twitter feeds below, and will post updates. This is now basically "Stop Trump" time for the others. But can it be done? Watch below and react in the comment section. If we can find a live video feed, we'll add that.
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