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Polling Tag

Posted by 0387erp on November 27, 2012 17 Comments

Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena.  Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths.  This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 02, 2012 31 Comments

I have received a good reaction to my post, If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?, in which I call non-statistical BS to Nate Silvermania. Dan McLaughlin, On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed examines Nate Silvermania, and links to me for a non-numbers...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 01, 2012 26 Comments

Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize. I don't know if it's right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 31, 2012 39 Comments

The polling this year is insane.  Same state, same time period, wildly different results from poll to poll. Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Wisconsin; Marquette has Obama up 8. The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) has Scott Brown up 2; Suffolk has Elizabeth Warren up...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 29, 2012 46 Comments

I have no implicit pro- or anti-Nate Silver bias.  He was a journolist and in 2008 got some secret help with his predictions from the Obama campaign, but since joining The NY Times I think he has raised his game. I find the whole focus on Silver and...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 28, 2012 82 Comments

It seems that all anyone is talking about is polling showing Obama pulling ahead.  Some of the polling says a little, some says a lot at least in certain swing states, particularly Ohio. I understand and have listened to all of the explanation as to why...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 24, 2012 31 Comments

The ancient "heathen proverb," often applied to those who attempt to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, seems appropriate to Republican presidential candidates and Pennsylvania. New GOP-commissioned poll puts Romney 1 percentage point behind in Pa. In contrast to other recent surveys, a new Pennsylvania poll commissioned by the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 11, 2012 36 Comments

Defeatism is so last weekend. Via WaPo: Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy. The survey shows that the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on August 20, 2012 35 Comments

PPP finds Todd Akin still leads Claire McCaskill, and that the numbers have not changed much since the controversy broke: Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 20, 2012 48 Comments

Jay Cost doesn't see malevolent intent, just a history of oversampling Democrats consistently across a variety of polling organizations: The clear answer is: they skew Democratic. In fact, every recent registered voter poll with party spreads I could identify had a Democratic advantage that exceeded the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on June 13, 2012 27 Comments

I posted last night about how Obama's support among a core constituency, Jews in New York, has cracked. Support for Obama also is cracking among blacks in North Carolina: President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among  African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 29, 2012 95 Comments

What is your political mood right now? 1-10, worst-to-best. Poll open until 10 a.m. Eastern, Thursday, March 1, 2012. What is your political mood right now? (1-10, worst-best)...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 24, 2012 5 Comments

From Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg (h/t @ChuckTodd): The President and the Democrats are indeed doing very well at the outset of 2012, and the Republicans are doing pitifully. They are not unrelated. Republicans in Congress and in the primary battles are driving independents into the Democrats’...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 11, 2012 56 Comments

PPP polling shows Santorum with a huge surge in support since he won the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses and non-binding Missouri primary, to the point that he leads nationally with 38 percent, to 23% for Romney, 17% for Newt, and 13% for Ron Paul. Although a surge of...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 30, 2012 34 Comments

Via Political Wire, the most recent polls: A Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney has a 14 point lead over Newt Gingrich, 43% to 29%, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both at 11%. Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 28, 2012 50 Comments

In keeping with the video of the day, the polling isn't exactly clear on what is happening here. On the one hand, numerous polls show Romney moving to a mid-to-high single digit lead in Florida, but Gallup and most other national polls show no upward movement for Romney...

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