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Polling Tag

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 26, 2013 23 Comments
I covered earlier the negative spin Gallup put on its recent Tea Party polling.  What showed a stable support/opposition over the last two years -- including a drop in opposition -- was spun as a negative only by comparison to three years ago. Gallup could have titled its report "No real change in Tea Party Support" or "Tea Party Support/Opposition Stable." Instead, Gallup put this spin on it:

Gallup Tea Party Support 9-26-2013

That misleading spin has been picked up and run with across the media, which is trying to tie the supposed decline to Ted Cruz's rise since 2012. But there was no meaningful decline since 2012 -- just 2% within the poll's 3% margin of error.  Support is actually 1% higher than in 2011.  You have to go back three years to the 2010 mid-term pro-Republican wave election, when Tea Party support peaked briefly, to see a substantial decline.  But that substantial decline took place prior to the 2012 election, long before Cruz was in the Senate.

Gallup Tea Party Support Chart 9-26-2013

Even with that, over 1 in 5 Americans still support the Tea Party and half of Americans are neutral.  Considering the demonization of the Tea Party in the media and Washington, D.C., a stable support/opposition is pretty amazing. No one is interested in the details, it's just political gamesmanship. Here are 5 profoundly misleading headlines inspired by Gallup:

1.  The Week -- Why does everyone hate the Tea Party?

Really? 73% of people supporting or being neutral on the Tea Party means everyone hates the Tea Party?

 

The Week - Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

2. Taylor Marsh - No One Supports the Tea Party Anymore:

Well, if by "no one" you mean over 1 in 5 Americans, slightly more than self-identify as liberal:

Taylor Marsh Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 26, 2013 26 Comments
That's not the headline you will see, of course. Instead, Gallup headlines its story about its most recent polling to emphasize the negative about Tea Party support, Tea Party Support Dwindles to Near-Record Low.

Gallup Tea Party Support 9-26-2013

But it you look at Gallups chart, it shows a 2% drop in support for the Tea Party in the past year and a 2% drop in opposition to the Tea Party, and both are near record lows.  Gallup Tea Party Support Chart 9-26-2013 There's only one brief time period when opposition to the Tea Party was significantly lower, but opposition now is right in the 25-29% range it's typically been in.  Tea Party support is significantly lower than three years ago, but about where it was two years ago.  So the drop took place two years ago, not recently as the Gallup headline (picked up in the mainstream media) would have you believe. Why highlight just the drop in support?  Because. Moreover, the percentage of people who consider themselves Tea Pary supporters is slightly larger than those who consider themselves liberal, as measured in Gallup's ideological self-identification survey from 2012. Considering the multi-year war on the Tea Party by Democrats, many Republicans, and the media, it is astounding that the Tea Party continues to stay more or less even in its support over the past two years.  A 2% drop is hardly meaningful, and could just be variations within the margin of error in the poll, which was +/- 3%. Also consider that half the electorate has no opinion one way or the other.  So put it another way, almost 3/4 of the American electorate is not opposed to the Tea Party! Think about it another way, if you were at a dinner table with four other people who represented the American electorate, one of the people at the table would be a Tea Party supporter.  And two others would have no opinion. Be afraid, be very afraid. Update: If Gallup wanted to be completely neutral, it could have written its headline as "Support and Opposition to Tea Party Stable." Instead, Gallup's anti-Tea Party spin is being picked up gladly at outlets such as TPM:

TPM Gallup Tea Party 9-26-2013

This is possibly the dumbest headline of all, from Taylor Marsh:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 11, 2013 39 Comments

I'll have to defer to pollsters as to whether this is consistent with professional polling protocol. PPP has admitted that it deliberately did not release a poll showing that Colorado State Senator Angela Giron was likely to lose the recall election by a wide margin: We did...

Posted by 0387erp on November 27, 2012 17 Comments

Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena.  Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths.  This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 02, 2012 31 Comments

I have received a good reaction to my post, If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?, in which I call non-statistical BS to Nate Silvermania. Dan McLaughlin, On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed examines Nate Silvermania, and links to me for a non-numbers...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 01, 2012 26 Comments

Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize. I don't know if it's right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 31, 2012 39 Comments

The polling this year is insane.  Same state, same time period, wildly different results from poll to poll. Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Wisconsin; Marquette has Obama up 8. The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) has Scott Brown up 2; Suffolk has Elizabeth Warren up...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 29, 2012 46 Comments

I have no implicit pro- or anti-Nate Silver bias.  He was a journolist and in 2008 got some secret help with his predictions from the Obama campaign, but since joining The NY Times I think he has raised his game. I find the whole focus on Silver and...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 28, 2012 82 Comments

It seems that all anyone is talking about is polling showing Obama pulling ahead.  Some of the polling says a little, some says a lot at least in certain swing states, particularly Ohio. I understand and have listened to all of the explanation as to why...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 24, 2012 31 Comments

The ancient "heathen proverb," often applied to those who attempt to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, seems appropriate to Republican presidential candidates and Pennsylvania. New GOP-commissioned poll puts Romney 1 percentage point behind in Pa. In contrast to other recent surveys, a new Pennsylvania poll commissioned by the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on September 11, 2012 36 Comments

Defeatism is so last weekend. Via WaPo: Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy. The survey shows that the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on August 20, 2012 35 Comments

PPP finds Todd Akin still leads Claire McCaskill, and that the numbers have not changed much since the controversy broke: Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn't moved the numbers a whole lot in the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 20, 2012 48 Comments

Jay Cost doesn't see malevolent intent, just a history of oversampling Democrats consistently across a variety of polling organizations: The clear answer is: they skew Democratic. In fact, every recent registered voter poll with party spreads I could identify had a Democratic advantage that exceeded the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on June 13, 2012 27 Comments

I posted last night about how Obama's support among a core constituency, Jews in New York, has cracked. Support for Obama also is cracking among blacks in North Carolina: President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among  African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 29, 2012 95 Comments

What is your political mood right now? 1-10, worst-to-best. Poll open until 10 a.m. Eastern, Thursday, March 1, 2012. What is your political mood right now? (1-10, worst-best)...

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