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Do Ohioans really want free phones more than a free country?

Do Ohioans really want free phones more than a free country?

It seems that all anyone is talking about is polling showing Obama pulling ahead.  Some of the polling says a little, some says a lot at least in certain swing states, particularly Ohio.

I understand and have listened to all of the explanation as to why the polling is skewed by the turnout models used.  And why the obsessive media coverage of polls is just PSYOPs.

But still … can it really be that skewed?

Well, could anyone have predicted prior to 2008 that 2008 would be the death of even the pretense of media neutrality?

Will 2012 be to the credibility of the polling industry what 2008 was to the credibility of the mainstream media?

I don’t have the answer.

I just keep thinking, is Ohio really going to stick it to the rest of the country? Can Ohioans really be falling for Obama’s Hope and Change sideshow again.  Do Ohioans really want free phones more than a free country?

Is Ohio really going to subject the nation to another 4 years of this?

I hope not.

Update: A reader sends this video:

And then I noticed this from Weasel Zippers, MSNBC Caught Doctoring Footage From Romney Rally:

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Do Ohioans really want free phones more than a free country?
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Well, some, sure. That is why Obama porked Ohio the way he has. It works, to some extent.

OTOH, you have a LOT of people in Ohio who GET it.

AND you have others who mine coal, work at a power plant…or used to before the War On Coal. They FEEL it.

AND you have a lot of Ohioans who LIKE having reliable power, and understand that the Obamic Decline is a war on modernity.

    Observer in reply to Ragspierre. | September 28, 2012 at 3:36 pm

    The Obama Decline is also a war on fiscal reality. And fiscal reality always wins in the end — but usually there’s a whole lot of carnage first.

    No way is Ohio (my home state!) going to go for Obama again. And with Ohio, Romney wins! Right now you can more than quadruple your money by betting on a Romney win at intrade:
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475
    Best investment opportunity of this century!

    ohiochili in reply to Ragspierre. | September 28, 2012 at 6:26 pm

    I live in Ohio, and I can tell you EVERYONE I know, people in grocery store lines, waiting in doctor’s offices,etc, and the people I call for the Romney phone banks are very unhappy with Obama, and can’t wait to vote him out.
    We know the media is in Obama’s pocket, and with the polls oversampling, they are in his pocket as well.
    Don’t count Ohio in Obama’s pocket yet. The only opinion that counts is the opinion expressed in the voting booth.

Ohio is John Boehner’s state. Any argument he is not a miserable failure and an incredible impediment to progress?

Just so. I remember that moment, that day and that afternoon when it first dawned on me that the media was in complete cahoots with the favored political party. Of course, I was aware of rathergate, but I never thought that all of the media was in the tank. Now, this past week, the same revelation has occurred regarding the polling. There is a lot of room for new “traditional” media and new “traditional” polling to flourish. Objectivity is key.

The polling orgs that are boosting obama by a lot are using D+9-11 turnout numbers for their polls and also simultaneously reducing independents and republicans in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. This is especially the case in Ohio where many organizations are finding independents support Romney over Obama nearly 2:1 or high single digits.

In fact, on the ground game in Ohio, the early voting numbers are showing democrat turnout right now at 60% of 2008 numbers. Guess what republican turnout is…

101-120%. IN. OHIO. IN D COUNTIES. The republican counties and the rural ones are NOT EVEN REPORTING EARLY NUMBERS YET.

In North Carolina, the ballot requests for absentees are showing OVER 50% of the requested ballots are for REPUBLICANS when polling organizations are showing an even to D+10 or above turnout for the state.

Now you wonder why they are so shrill. They are trying to gin up enthusiasm for THEIR BASE. Ours is enthused and IS SHOWING UP TO VOTE.

The biggest BS surrounding these polls is the way the MS media and pundit class are treating something like a 4% lead in the September polls as signifying that Obama has this wrapped up. Now, it’s certainly possible to believe — I don’t believe it, but it’s POSSIBLE to believe — that Obama has a 4-point lead right now. However, even you believe that, how in the world can anyone conclude that the race is over? A race can EASILY move 4 points just in the last 48 hours, forget 40 days.

Romney/Ryan events are SRO, with people being turned away. Obama support is small.

Someone told Limbaugh that there are only about 50 or so anti-Romney protestors in Ohio, seemingly the same people (including phone-lady) being bused between events.

Stephen Hayes, some idiot Kristol-bot, conceded the election to Obama on Fox this morning. This much is fact: Fox’s polls have been among the less reliable, and Kristol, becoming increasingly irrelevant, is gleefully doing his best to help demolish the ’12 GOP ticket the way he did in 2008. Both Fox and the Weekly Standard have been corrupted, so they can’t really be trusted, either.

Bottom line: we are surrounded by deception, corruption, and lies; we must keep on fighting.

    CalMark in reply to CalMark. | September 28, 2012 at 2:16 pm

    P.S. I know a big family of union-all-the-way (the older generation were all lifelong union members), pension-drawing, liberal New Jersey Democrats.

    And the election? They’re struggling to justify opposition (abortion, mainly) to Romney. Emotionally, these stereotypical East Coast citizen-leftists seem to have abandoned Obama. How likely will they be to get out and vote for Obama, whose name they can’t even bring themselves to say?

    PhillyGuy in reply to CalMark. | September 28, 2012 at 5:36 pm

    Well I want to provide a first person account to add your comments Cal.

    I went to the Philly area rally for Mitt today. The crowd was huge, enthusiastic and motivated. It was overflowing and very diverse. Women, minorities….you name it.

    Mitt was flat out terrific. He hit Obama hard..mocked him (“he calls his campaign FORWARD but I call his campaign FOREWARNED”)and touched on virtually all his failures (both domestic AND overseas..spent time on Libya too). Then he provided his 5 point summary plan. The crowd loved it.

    If this is the Mitt we see in the debates, he will run away with this election. I was stoked.

    I was standing next to a woman who became a US citizen after being born in Brazil. She said to me that she wished Americans could see how great the USA was from her perspective and how much Obama is doing to eat away at that. She was voting for Romney to “preserve liberty for all Americans..even the ones who now call the USA their home.”

    The heck with the pundits. This is what America needs to see.

People whose shoe size exceeds their IQ prefer the free phones. Oh, what a country!

Things are only worse since 2010, so that year seems like a better indicator of turnout. The stock market is still being juiced with QE3, that might help Obama a little, though there are no other good indicators for a solid economy.

With all the racist charges, I also think any phone polls will be skewed toward Obama, because people don’t want their phone number tied to a negative opinion of the first (half) black president. Obama’s willingness to go after Republicans with the power of government is chilling indeed.

Ohio also has a lot of coal voters that may rethink things. Even if Obama has a couple points, he is peaking too early. The bigger push will come with the debates and later days where the most ads will run, and people will pay most attention. Obama can sing and dance his way through Hollywood, but skipping his day job while the ME burns and jobs and the economy suck, has to hurt him.

So Silly, Professor. I guess only a Professor would be concerened that people are not voting based on the principle of what is best for the USA.

Many are voting for what feels good to them at this moment, which for 12,000,000 is a free phone from Uncle. We have a shockingly stupid electorate who refuse to learn anything about any candidate.

Yes, a phone is enough. So is free health care, free housing, free food, free smokes, free education, on and on…

I’d go so far as to say — as the DEMS know – bias and misinformation are more important to winning reelection that true and correct information about candidates and their positions.

Considering that SEIU had to pay “Phone Lady” $11 per hour for her magnetic personality, I don’t think that Ohio is that stupid this time.

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to persecutor. | September 28, 2012 at 3:33 pm

    Back in the 1980s a political operative for Illinois Democrat Mike Madigan told me Republicans always lose because they only write contribution checks while the Democrats also have armies of free workers. Today the unions have to pay day laborers to show up at demonstrations while the Republicans have small army of Tea Party volunteers.

Ring x7, Obamaphone …

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yZeHO2orNQ

(not the highest production values, but whatyagonnado)

In Ohio, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac have Obama up 10%, 25% with women. But here is an interesting bit of trivia. Here are the Ohio statistics on Absentee Ballot requests for 2008 and 2012.
Total Dem Rep D % R%
2008 740,725 288,270 144,300 38.92% 19.48%
2012 560,576 157,355 137,184 29.87% 24.91%

A couple of points:
•Total absentee ballots went down overall by 180,205
•Dem absentee request went down 120,839
•Rep absentee requests went down 7,116
•Which means that 113,723 fewer Ds than Rs would be voting absentee.
•Since the total reduction of absentees is so great, it is unlikely that the missing Ds are in another category.
•Yes, they could still vote at the precinct, but to me it shows a up to a 42% reduction in voter enthusiasm for Obama.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4% or about 262,224. A reduction of 120,839 absentee ballots, assuming they all went to Obama is a 46% reduction in his winning margin.
Is it plausible that you lose almost half your winning margin just in absentees and still have a 10% lead.

These Polls just don’t make no sense to me!

    heimdall in reply to CAB123. | September 28, 2012 at 5:53 pm

    Even better though is that Obama ONLY won Ohio in 2008 because of depressed republican turnout. Obama actually got LESS than Lurch John Kerry in 2004 against Bush. Bush actually managed to get nearly three hundred thousand more votes than McCain and Ohio was D+8 in 2008, yet Obama’s #s were unchanged from Kerry’s.

    Obama won independents and democrats by wide margins in 2008 and he is going to lose now because his independents are now in Romney’s camp no matter what the media skewed polls are saying about dem turnout.

    Bush 2,859,764 Kerry 2,741,165

    McCain 2,501,855 Obama 2,708,685

You would be surprised how low people would be willing to sell their freedom for. They are like “I’m not using my freedom, might as well get something for it”.

    DemNoMore in reply to imfine. | September 28, 2012 at 3:47 pm

    That thumbs down is an oops from me. I should not try to watch tv and read blogs at the same time. My apologies. And I would not be surprised at how little people will sell their vote for. We just had a former state legislator from West Memphis plead guilty to buying votes with chicken dinners.

      Its alright, the down vote when I first saw was actually uplifting since it was a very cynical post. In some ways I disappointed that it was mistake.

Gosh, we have absolute SCADS of ohio folk driving around these mountains, they better damn sure KNOW how to use those “free phones”, cause there will be one pissed mountain dweller (and many more) just waiting to ride their bumpers on these scary roads.

Should they object to bumper riding..’touch my car, see what happens’..

conservativegram | September 28, 2012 at 2:51 pm

As an Ohioian, I can tell you that in my area, Obama doesn’t stand a chance. Many people, including my daughter, who voted for him in 2008 have finally awakened. My son-in law is a union man–railroad. Several times he has come home after being “informed” by union reps that Romney and Ryan want to take away his retirement or Sherrod Brown is the only person looking out for them. I immediately present him with the real facts from several sources and pray that he really gets it. Sherrod Brown knows how to work the unions. The other McCain had a great video up yesterday showing the people waiting in line to see Romney in Toledo. Whoever took the video had to walk for blocks to show everyone. I watched the rally on local t.v. The crowd was very enthused, but you never would have guessed it if you missed the rally and just watched the local news broadcast. I was simply amazed. I put up a link on the tip line yesterday to Romney’s roundtable in Cleveland. It’s a fairly long video, but excellent and many small business owners from around the area assured Romney that they would deliver Cuyahoga county for him. I pray they keep their word.

    Your comment makes me feel better. My husband and I lived in Ohio for several years, in a pretty Republican area; and I just haven’t been able to believe the polls that show Obama so far ahead there. The people we knew were hard-working, patriotic and too smart to fall for Obama’s lies a second time. I do hope, though, that all the people who refused to vote for McCain because he wasn’t conservative enough for their standards now see what havoc they wrought. They may not have liked McCain, but he surely would not have brought us McCaincare, and I can’t see him callously exposing our diplomats to such danger for no good reason and then lying about it.

A significant portion of the fed workforce is black. They in turn make up a significant part of the black middle class. They in effect serve as oversee’rs on the dem staffed fed plantation. These oversee’rs and many of the clients they manipulate are in effect slaves to that dem fed plantation. I find it tragic that so many blacks seem ok with selling themselves back into servitude.

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to secondwind. | September 28, 2012 at 4:19 pm

    Working class blacks may be as unhappy with their government overseers as we are. I was in Charlotte at a pro life demonstration as part of the Democrat convention. We were bused in from a suburb. After the march I had a chance to chat with our middle aged black bus driver about the difficulty Obama was having filling up Bank of America stadium. It was a natural topic of conversation: We were parked where we could see the sea of empty blue seats.) He summed up Obama and many others in black political leadership: Once they start making into six figures they don’t care about those of us still making five.

    The night attendant at the assisted living facility my late mother lived was a middle aged black women who ran a second hand store with a brother and his wife. Whenever residents passed she’d offer to have all the items the heirs didn’t want hauled away for free. When I was clearing up my mother’s affairs in late 2009 she expressed a similar disdain for Obama.

    I wouldn’t expect these people to vote against Obama but they aren’t going to be all that enthused about voting for him, either. Nor are they likely to be urging every family member to go to the polls, as happened in 2008.

MaggotAtBroadAndWall | September 28, 2012 at 3:08 pm

I was really worried about Ohio when they rejected Kasich’s public sector union reform law. The only reason that makes sense (to me) is ideological. Ohioans must be far less conservative and far more socialist than we’ve believed them to be. 40 years of left wing indoctrination by academia – from kindergarten thru grad school – appears to have taken it’s toll. Maybe the country has moved so far left that those of us who value individual responsibility, liberty, and less government intervention in how we live really are the radicals and extremists as the left has been proclaiming since Obama’s election.

I think it is fair to say that if Obama is re-elected, what little freedom we have left will be severely restricted. I don’t see how Obamacare can be anything short of a catastrophic disaster both financially and in terms of a loss of freedom. As I understand it, the 15 member IPAB panel in Obamacare are unelected elites, not subject to Senate confirmation, and their decisions are final. In other words, there will be no possibility for judicial review. Free people will have voluntarily voted to surrender decisions about their health to 15 healthcare tyrants. When the true costs of Obamacare start to be realized in 2014, I don’t see how the average standard of livings will not fall. Again, that’s one of the things a vote for Obama will amount to in November.

The second thing to worry about is judicial appointments – and not just at SCOTUS – but the entire judiciary. But as SCOTUS goes, Ginsberg and Breyer will likely retire during an Obama second term and be replaced with young justices who are at least as liberal as they are and will have the opportunity to serve for maybe 40 years or longer. Just pray that none of the five mostly conservative oriented justices decide to retire, suffer from debilitating health issues, or worse.

I suspect that if you think a first Obama term was bad, a second term when he is not constrained by having to be competitive for re-election will be worse. As he told Medvedev, he will have “more flexibility”. How do you suppose a hard left extreme narcissist will govern under those conditions? I get depressed thinking about it all.

    BannedbytheGuardian in reply to MaggotAtBroadAndWall. | September 28, 2012 at 4:55 pm

    One thing America must change is this Supreme Court Judge for Life.

    It is f****ng ridiculous . That is a judicial dictatorship – compounded by the fact that they are appointed.

    I was really worried about Ohio when they rejected Kasich’s public sector union reform law.

    Me too, and it worried me that conservatives ignored the Ohio outcome while we celebrated the Wisconsin recall. Hopefully I was not prescient.

“Out, out, brief candle! Polls are but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets their hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”

All these comments, so much negativity!

STOP IT!

Regardless who wins in November, we can’t stop fighting.

A corrupt aristocracy — which transcends “D” or “R” (“Republican Pollsters” finding groundswell support for Obama? REALLY?) — has obviously hijacked the government. They are hell-bent on hijacking this election, too.

We must do everything possible to stop them. That means STOP THE DEFEATISM.

And if we lose, what? We just surrender, like the Republicans have been doing for the past 75 years? “Oh, the other side won, elections have consequences, we have to do what they want ’cause that’s what the people want.” We do exactly what we criticize the people in power for doing? Like 2010 never happened?

Amazing. All of these so-called “conservatives” so eager to concede 236 years of history and glorious liberty!

    Getting rid of Boehner and McConnell as the congressional leaders would be a great start. These 2 asshats are a big part of the problem. They want to go along to get along. West in the House and Paul in the Senate. That would be a dynamite combination.

What I hear, not a lot, but here and there:

“I’m so afraid that GOP voters are sensing defeat and won’t get out to vote.”

What I haven’t heard once yet:

“I’M sensing defeat and may stay home and not vote.”

Some folks are worried about other, unknown voters, but nobody is worried about themselves. Award no value to the polls and articles of pro-Obama partisans. Stay the course. Do what you can to help. All is well. Obama is going down.

Take heart – go to unskewedpolls.com. Romney is ahead 7 points nationally. I believe the Tea Party is alive and well. Republican turnout will exceed the 2010 midterm election. Polling firms and National Review Online are now officially part of the corrupt MSM. Don’t listen to them – VOTE!
Thank you Legal Insurrection and all other alternative news sources.

People routinely elect to exchange liberty for submission with benefits. Historically, the benefits were reaped in the form of security. Today, it is in the form of “free” stuff, which simply inflates and shifts the cost of goods to someone else, as well as sponsors corruption of individuals, institutions, and society.

StrayYellarDawg | September 28, 2012 at 3:53 pm

Here in Ohio, folks tend to think differently, by the part of the state they are in. I have always been one of the few social liberals in the Conservative SW corner. But I fit in well with the fiscal leanings of my area.

The further North, and East, you go… the more poverty and welfare you see. The industries in Cleveland and Youngstown, for instance, are dead. Few are left up there but the people who think a free cell phone is what makes a President worth voting for.

Ohio was a Hillary state in 2008. And later became an Obama state. But… I have to tell the truth… all around me, all I see are Romney yard signs.

    Living in the SF Bay Area, I saw a LOT of Obama campaign stickers in in 2008.

    So far (I guess things could change in the next month), very few of those are adding Obama 2012.

      JimMtnViewCaUSA in reply to CalMark. | September 28, 2012 at 4:17 pm

      Same here in the South Bay (Silicon Valley).
      Huge numbers in ’08, crickets now.
      Doesn’t prove they won’t vote but the enthusiasm has waned.

      NC Mountain Girl in reply to CalMark. | September 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm

      My last three trips into the People’s Republic of Asheville I have seen only three Obama bumper stickers. The only other Obama bumper stickers I’ve seen recently were over in Waynesville and both cars had Florida plates. There are lots of “hummingbirds” over there- wealthy people who are here from mid-May through October.

      For the protest at the Democrat convention I drove from the Tennessee border on I-40 to I-77. After the march I spent some time shopping at places like Ikea and Trade Joes in the Charlotte suburbs before driving back to Asheville by heading to Gastonia and getting on US 74-64. I don’t think I saw more than five Obama bumper stickers outside the convention zone.

        Henry Hawkins in reply to NC Mountain Girl. | September 28, 2012 at 5:03 pm

        I live in a rural area of NC within 10 miles of Rocky Mount. I’m seeing nothing – no Obama bumper stickers or yard signs and no Romney stickers or yard signs. Plenty of TV ads for both, but none of the ground stuff.

          AmandaFitz in reply to Henry Hawkins. | September 28, 2012 at 6:28 pm

          I’m in Cashiers and see the occasional yard sign for Romney- lots of signs for Mark Meadows. In Brevard, there are lots of bumper stickers for Obama- usually on older Priuses, along with “Coexist” stickers, a few Romney/Ryan bumper stickers and yard signs. Since I’ll talk to anyone, I’ve noticed that all of the working people I’ve talked to want to get rid of Obama, but people seem SCARED about who might be listening- an attitude I’ve never seen before (I’m in my sixties). Given the arrest of the guy who made the lame anti-Muslim video, I’d say being scared to speak out is realistic.

          This is America under Obama.

          NC Mountain Girl in reply to Henry Hawkins. | September 28, 2012 at 7:57 pm

          Some of the smaller rural county organizations such as ours in Madison just got their Romney signs last week. My neighbor had to get her Romney and McCrory signs from the Buncombe organization in Asheville. I’ve seen a few Romney signs and quite a few bumper stickers. Also a lot of anyone but Obama and stop Obama stickers. My favorite Romney sign is outside a gun store on Smoky Mountain Highway. That’s almost against interest as gun and ammo sales have skyrocketed under Obama.

          Henry Hawkins in reply to Henry Hawkins. | September 28, 2012 at 11:23 pm

          NC is certainly well represented on this blog.

Have you heard about the Obama phone:

All 3 AM calls go directly to voicemail.
You can’t find “Jerusalem” on Google maps.
When you dial “home”, it calls Kenya.

Read more at the Link.

http://spectator.org/blog/2012/09/28/obamaphone-humor

The 2010 Ohio Congressional elections produced 13 Republican Congressmen compared to 5 Democrat Congressmen. That is for federal elections. Ohio Congressional districts that went Democrat were #9, #10, #11, #13 and #17. These were the heavily populated districts. Yet the Democrat lost the gubernatorial election in 2010.

Obama is heavily working Ohio for one reason. He has to have it. But Ohio has a coal industry, and their electric rates have risen quite a bit since Obama won in 2008. On the flip side, the unemployment rate for Ohio in August was 7.2% thanks to the efforts of their Republican governor. The question is “will Ohioans remember the 10% unemployment rate in 2009 under the Democrats?”

[…] “Two men, a country in crisis.” Romney has to use contrast and compare ads. Romney has to have a sense of urgency as well and declare that this election is about something real big – the country, freedom – it’s not about free phones. […]

Ask yourself what is the truth? Is it now held in the hands of those in power, as we learned in the Obamacare event? It seems that the radical who inhabited the sixties are in all walks of our lives, professionally, educationally, politically and they DO BELIEVE America has done more harm than good and needs to be taken down several notches.

As as we have also learned, ideologues are dangerous, dangerous people willing to sacrifice many for a cause.

So, are they corrupt or are they on a mission to right the wrongs of the past- as it has been said by them “the ends justify the means.”

I don’t know. Where is our tipping point as a society? Did we allow ourselves to be propelled along by the fumes of the effort provided by our greatest generation?

I think we have. I think all nations fail. It is just the question of when and how. I believe long before the barbarians will be at our gates, we’ll have fallen. It is human nature. It is human nature to bully and it is human nature to cower. And Obama’s people have apparently applied those principles well to many of our citizens and business, including the pollsters.

Everybody is more than a little afraid. And that makes them weak.

http://truthandcommonsense.com/2012/09/27/on-the-other-hand-obama-polls-are-so-slanted-it-is-almost-criminal/

    NC Mountain Girl in reply to archer52. | September 28, 2012 at 4:52 pm

    Are you talking about the generation that saw no fault divorce as a midlife enrichment program, approved abortion on demand and were elated they could turn the care of their own parents over to the federal government via Social Security and Medicaid? The boomers were still in grade school, high school and college when all those legacies came to pass.

    I have no love for the empty moral posturing of many in my generation but the rot began with our parents.

      I concur with what you say.

      The so-called “Greatest Generation” is the one that begat, then spoiled and indulged, the “Me Generation.”

      Many — not all, but far too many, of the WWII generation were no better than the Boomers morally. They’re dying off now, but some of the nastiest, most entitled-feeling, stridently pro-government/anti-Reagan, shrill “where’s my government check dammit!” people were WWII-generation types.

        BannedbytheGuardian in reply to CalMark. | September 28, 2012 at 7:09 pm

        Might be easier to just accept the need for a new Union & Confederacy. Some states will need to be split eg VA & PA into north/South , East West ..

        Newcomers get to choose which side.

        If residents don’t like the decision they have 12 months to leave.

        The national debt & is divided onto everyone equal share. National assets are available for purchase.

        As before the military get to choose sides. I would lobby to have New Mexico on one’s side because they have de nooks.

        I’ve seen the critiques of the supposed conformity, materialism, superficiality, blah blah blah of the 1950s. Those critiques are garbage, often malevolent garbage.

        After they grew up in the Depression and fought WW2, that generation’s desire for an ordered, stable, prosperous life is completely understandable.

        The Woodstock-type Boomers have no such excuse.

Raquel Pinkbullet | September 28, 2012 at 4:39 pm

Sadly it looks like OH may be going the way of CO. I don’t know why. Must be something in the water. But Romney has run a weak campaign. He needs to rip up the McCain playbook of losing with “honor” and go for the jugular. We are 5 weeks away from D-Day. Literally D-Day, we need Obama and his Anti-American clan out.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to Raquel Pinkbullet. | September 28, 2012 at 5:08 pm

    Have faith. The campaign is far from over. Bear in mind that during the primaries Romney also ran on the quiet – until he had to get down and dirty. There is no way he’d do what he did to Gingrich in Florida and not do the same to Obama. I am certain internal polling shows Romney leading or too close to go nuclear as yet. Going nuclear in a campaign is a one way street – there’s no going back – and you don’t take that risk unless and until you have to. We’ll know after the first debate whether Romney needs to go that route. There is no doubt in my mind he’s willing and able to do it.

Raquel Pinkbullet | September 28, 2012 at 4:43 pm

Also keep in mind the Bradley effect….

    The Bradley Effect sure as hell didn’t appear in 2008. It won’t now. We are going to win regardless anyways. Ohio is going to Romney bar some disaster in the next month.

Excellent post, Professor. Just outstanding. Thank you.

After what I saw at the Philly rally today, I am convinced the polls are wrong and Romney is going to take this thing. I think Dick Morris is completely correct.

NC Mountain Girl | September 28, 2012 at 6:47 pm

The libs are completely up in arms over this. It’s raaaacissst just to let this stupid woman rant and then to post it on You Tube. It seems no one wants to own up ot the fact they belong to the same party as this loudmouthed, overfed, ignorant parasite, not even the well groomed parasites who wear suits and speak in well modulated voices. The poor, after all, are always presented as meek, helpless and eternally grateful.

The video seems to be on pace to have well over 1.5 million plus views in less than three days. The horrendous increase in people on some form of government aid even as the well connected crony capitalists thrive is Obama’s Achilles heal.

I’m neither surprised nor depressed by the entitlement dust-up du jour. To be honest, every time I see/hear/hear of something like the “O!bamaPhone” vid, my bravo sierra detector goes into alarm. I’m not buyin’ it.

Given that, though, there are an awful lot of people here in the Buckeye State who absolutely intend on voting for the President this year. It probably all boils down to some kind of perceived personal comfort factor.

These people come from all walks of life. They have many different levels of educational achievement to their (dis?)credit. What they share is a lack of understanding and appreciation for the Constitution of the United States, those of the several states, our Anglo-American legal heritage, and the ways in which all those things fit together to support the country we have built around them. And they do not understand the workings of the businesses which drive the economy which keeps the whole thing going.

We who read LI see things happening every day and we are shocked and dismayed by what we see. Many people don’t even see those things. They can’t be shocked by what they don’t see. All they know is that they have complaints and there’s a guy “out there” who’s saying the things they want to hear about how “he’s going to make things better.” Never mind that under our system, that’s not something he can do. Let alone OUR fear that he IS going to try to find a way to do it by himself – to our detriment and regret. They don’t see the reefs ahead.

I’m not convinced that Romney has lost Ohio. It’s too soon to call. Too close to call.

1. The full Caddell speech is here, both video and transcript. Caddell comments on the Romney campaign here.

2. I am consciously trying to avoid pessimistic talk (while remaining realistic), but it’s true I no longer feel the excitement I had wrt the Solyndra press conference, the Ryan pick, and the Eastwood speech.

3. Intrade and polls are saying this thing is over before a single debate. This is the first election ever during which I feel disconnected from the polls. Maybe I differ from the younger generations which are beginning to supplant mine; maybe the demographics of the country has changed the voting and we have not yet seen the equivalent of the Reagan Democrats; maybe Romney is running an incompetent campaign; or maybe the polls are wrong. I simply don’t know.

4. However, it’s very hard to believe that this thing is over 5+ weeks before the election. It’s very hard to believe it’s over before a single debate. It’s very easy to believe that the Left is doing its utmost to convince me otherwise.

    gs in reply to gs. | September 28, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    5. Another thing. Before his crazy behavior as the financial crisis hit, McCain had actually taken a lead in 2008. The Obama administration is a clear failure. It just doesn’t make sense that the country has changed so much in four years that Obama would have the election wrapped up.

    For the first time in history, Americans expect their children to be worse off than they are—and they’re supposedly voting for the incumbent who made things so?

    I don’t get it.

BannedbytheGuardian | September 28, 2012 at 9:20 pm

To be honest I was very surprised to see John McCain even on the Republica primary battle in 07-8. I thought he was a D.

Romney seems more like a Blue Dog D than a R. LI readers will never understand the massive damage GWBush/Rove /Cheney did to he R brand. The British press just hates Romney . Even top Conservatives Cameron & Boris Johnson -despise him & behind him all Rs.

But it is up to Americans not them. At best I can see a quiet election with low turnout .It is unlikely this is a calm before the storm because there will be no storm. Romney can still win if Rs & enough Independents s turn out to vote.

It must be noted that Ryan is not Sarah. Against the tens of thousands of articles/ rants /raves Sarah generated as VP candidate Ryan has about 40.

    1. LI readers will never understand the massive damage GWBush/Rove /Cheney did to he R brand. On the day after Christmas, I posted:

    1. To repeat what I’ve said before: no family except the Kennedys has done as much damage as the Bushes. When I compare the lunacy of Bush’s Second Inaugural Address to what’s happening in Egypt and elsewhere, I worry that the Bushes are gaining ground on the Kennedys.

    2. Yet somehow they retain their influence in the GOP. Somehow Karl Rove the “architect”–the architect of the 20086/2008 Democrat blowout victories–has not been made persona non grata like Richard Darman was.

    Thanks for your interest and input, but I’m a lot more concerned about the damage the Bush gang did to the country’s hard power (economic and military) than to its image abroad.

      BannedbytheGuardian in reply to gs. | September 29, 2012 at 12:45 am

      Thanks for the reply.

      I believe the nation shares the blame for the economic situation.

      No doubt Bush shoulders the blame for the Iraq wars -which were immensely unpopular in GB & elsewhere . However the military members liked it & they all gained invaluable ME & desert warfare IQ.

      Post Clinton , the US military was much weaker as demonstrated by Afghanistan2001 . After Iraq they were a mean machine. Unfortunately they have slipped back & are at the mercy of lesser men in both the admin & Pentagon .

      The 2006/08 wave was going to happen . It should be retracting back in normal times but these are not normal times.

BannedbytheGuardian | September 28, 2012 at 9:53 pm

Indeed at a family re union last weekend -people knowing my interest in American politics said –

EEEWH not very interesting election is it ? What’s going on ?

[…] Over at Legal Insurrection, it is asked: Will 2012 be to the credibility of the polling industry what 2008 was to the credibility of the main… […]

The panic is in the Beltway pundit class who have invested their lives in the making of conventional wisdom. The polls are wrong because Republicans and Tea Party supporters disproportionately refuse to participate, and there is no practical way to measure that.

Romney should concentrate on debt, deficits, jobs, and energy – run that old 2007 Obama interview: “Under my plan rates will necessarily skyrocket . . . they can build a coal plant, but they will go bankrupt.”

Take nothing for granted, work your friends and neighbors and coworkers, and we will win this thing, including a lot of Senate seats and control there.

[…] Do Ohioans really want free phones more than a free country? (legalinsurrection.com) Share this:DiggEmailShare on TumblrMore Pin ItLike this:LikeBe the first to like this. […]

[…] 30, 2012 You really shouldn’t be. Sure the media has Obama pounding Mitt Romney in Ohio as well as Florida, but let’s be honest, this thing is far from over. Obama knows this and so […]

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