Polling  (Page 8)

The Plum Line Guys Are Right About Jews and Obama

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, July 13, 2011 at 3:39pm 7/13/2011 at 3:39pm

As you know, I’m highly skeptical of polls showing Jews turning against Obama in substantial numbers.  So, in what may be a first, I’ll have to agree with the Plum Line guys, Greg Sargent and Adam Serwer, about Jews and Obama.

Jews are not going to vote against Obama, at least not on the...

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Flash Poll – Which Obama will show up at today’s press conference?

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, July 11, 2011 at 8:30am 7/11/2011 at 8:30am

Obama is holding another press conference today, at 11 a.m. , with regard to the debt talks.  The last press conference was an unmitigated disaster for him, leading one MSNBC talking head to drop the “D” bomb.

My take is that...

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Imagine What The Numbers Would Look Like If They Said Something Nice About Bush

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, May 3, 2011 at 8:00pm 5/3/2011 at 8:00pm

Gallup is out with a poll taken yesterday on the issue of who deserves credit for finding and killing Osama bin Laden.

The results are very telling.  Understandably, the U.S. military gets the most credit (89% Great Deal, 9% Moderate Amount), followed by the CIA (62/26).

Obama has been criticized for his egocentric speech Sunday...

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Post-Birth Certificate Poll Bounce for Obama?

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, April 28, 2011 at 9:39am 4/28/2011 at 9:39am

Maybe, just maybe slightly.  But it will not last.  Here’s why:

In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 408,500, an increase of 9,250 from the previous...

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Another Day, Another Nonsense PPP Poll

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, April 12, 2011 at 12:24pm 4/12/2011 at 12:24pm

If you have not realized it by now, Public Policy Polling — which works for DailyKos — has become an important part of the left-wing messaging machine, with a relentless series of polls spun as bad news for Republicans since the November 2010 elections, and gimmicks (such as polling Charlie Sheen,...

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The Missing Headline: “Obama Support Among Millennials Plummets Since 2008”

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, March 31, 2011 at 6:37pm 3/31/2011 at 6:37pm

That’s the headline you will not see.  Instead, you will see this headline: 

“Obama Approval Ratings On The Rise Among Millennials, Especially on College Campuses, Harvard Poll Finds.”

And this headline:

Obama Job Approval Rises Among Young Voters: Millennials More Likely To Vote Obama Than GOP Candidate In 2012

And this headline:

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E-mailers Strongly Support Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, March 21, 2011 at 12:16pm 3/21/2011 at 12:16pm

The polls have tended to show that Democrats in Wisconsin are in a much stronger position than last fall as a result of the budget repair bill controversy.

I’ve wondered whether voters minds really could have changed that quickly, and whether union intimidation tactics really have worked.  Has the majority really flipped to...

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“43% of Americans would consider voting for Charlie Sheen over Barack Obama!”

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 1:27pm 3/17/2011 at 1:27pm

I have expressed my concerns with Public Policy Polling before.  PPP is a traditionally Democratic firm which now is the official pollster for DailKos, and has a tendency to put a heavy spin on its poll results.

Today PPP officially beclowned itself, releasing a poll which, among other things, pitted Charlie Sheen against,...

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So This Is How They Do It

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 7:00am 3/17/2011 at 7:00am

Reader Dan in Hawaii, who followed the Polling 101 series, sent this clip, which I enjoyed very much:

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Follow me on Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube
Visit the Legal Insurrection Shop on CafePress!

 
 
 

Wisconsin Recall Polling Analyzed

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 8:59am 3/16/2011 at 8:59am

GUEST POST by Matthew Knee:

Professor Jacobson asked me to comment on the DKos/PPP poll regarding big labor’s recall efforts in Wisconsin. The questions are mostly fine, but I have a few thoughts on the results that might be helpful.

Wisconsin recalls do not work like the famous California recall that replaced Gray...

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Polling 101 Recap

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, March 14, 2011 at 10:03am 3/14/2011 at 10:03am

Here is a recap of the Polling 101 series of Guest Posts by Matthew Knee, which ran last week:

  1. How People Answer Polls
  2. Samples & Margin of Error
  3. Handling Bias
  4. Evaluating The Public Employee Union Polls
  5. You Can’t Learn Much From Asking People Their Ideology

The series was a real eye-opener for me, and hopefully for our...

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Polling 101, Last Class: You Can’t Learn Much From Asking People Their Ideology

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, March 11, 2011 at 7:30am 3/11/2011 at 7:30am

This is the fifth in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.  While this is the last post in the Polling 101 series, Matt will continue to...

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Polling 101, Session 4: Evaluating The Public Employee Union Polls

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, March 10, 2011 at 7:26am 3/10/2011 at 7:26am

This is the fourth in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.
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Today I will provide an overview of the polling situation in the national battle against the...

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Polling 101, Session 3: Handling Bias

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, March 9, 2011 at 7:13am 3/9/2011 at 7:13am

This is the third in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.
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Handling Bias

Today I will discuss ways to handle bias when you find it, and then...

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Public Sector Employee Benefit Conglomerates Protected By Collective Bargaining Agreements

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, March 8, 2011 at 3:00pm 3/8/2011 at 3:00pm

The battle taking place in Wisconsin is just one of many battles in which elected officials are attempting to take back control over state and local government from public employee unions.

The stakes for the public are high. Increasingly large percentages of state and local budgets are devoted to servicing public employee...

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Polling 101, Session 2: Samples & Margin of Error

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, March 8, 2011 at 8:00am 3/8/2011 at 8:00am

This is the second in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.
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Samples & Margin of Error

1. Sampling Error Will Always Be There – No Matter What The Sample...

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Polling 101 – How People Answer Polls

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, March 7, 2011 at 8:00am 3/7/2011 at 8:00am

This is the first in a series GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.

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Analyzing polls with only what polling companies release is a tricky business. Near-ideal poll analysis requires a...

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