Polling  (Page 5)

Opposition to Tea Party drops to near-record low

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, September 26, 2013 at 9:24am 9/26/2013 at 9:24am

That’s not the headline you will see, of course.

Instead, Gallup headlines its story about its most recent polling to emphasize the negative about Tea Party support, Tea Party Support Dwindles to Near-Record Low.

But it you look at Gallups chart, it shows a 2% drop in support for...

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PPP sat on poll showing Colorado recall strength

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, September 11, 2013 at 1:40pm 9/11/2013 at 1:40pm

I’ll have to defer to pollsters as to whether this is consistent with professional polling protocol.

PPP has admitted that it deliberately did not release a poll showing that Colorado State Senator Angela Giron was likely to lose the recall election by a wide margin:

We did a poll last weekend in Colorado...

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Politico poll showing “plurality support” for gay marriage also shows majority opposition

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Guest Post by William M. Briggs  ▪  Thursday, December 13, 2012 at 10:21am 12/13/2012 at 10:21am

As Professor Jacobson pointed out the other day, there is an effort already underway to game the refs at the Supreme Court, similar to in the Obamacare case, by creating a media and political narrative that the Court’s legitimacy would be threatened if it were...

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Wishcasting the 2012 Presidential Election

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Guest Post by William M. Briggs  ▪  Tuesday, November 27, 2012 at 4:13pm 11/27/2012 at 4:13pm

Meteorologists who examine their prognosticative skill often notice a curious phenomena. 

Forecasts for snow on December Twenty-fourths and Twenty-fifths have higher probabilities than forecasts for Twenty-sixths or Twenty-sevenths.  This disparity is inverted on the Fourth of July, where probabilities for rain are lower than for the Fifth.  Surely nature doesn’t have a...

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Our numbers guys can beat up your numbers guys

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, November 2, 2012 at 9:41am 11/2/2012 at 9:41am

I have received a good reaction to my post, If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?, in which I call non-statistical BS to Nate Silvermania.

Dan McLaughlin, On Polling Models, Skewed & Unskewed examines Nate Silvermania, and links to me for a non-numbers reason, which is good because I’m...

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Push Operation Demoralize aside

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Posted by  ▪  Thursday, November 1, 2012 at 12:13pm 11/1/2012 at 12:13pm

Averaging turnout models over the last four 2-year cycles, gets different results in the polling than the doom being peddled by Operation Demoralize.

I don’t know if it’s right or wrong, but given that Operation Demoralize is in full swing, anything that keeps spirits up for the final push through the finish...

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The death of polling industry credibility

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, October 31, 2012 at 4:30pm 10/31/2012 at 4:30pm

The polling this year is insane.  Same state, same time period, wildly different results from poll to poll.

Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Wisconsin; Marquette has Obama up 8. The Boston Globe (UNH Polling) has Scott Brown up 2; Suffolk has Elizabeth Warren up 7. And...

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If Nate Silver cannot be wrong, how can he be right?

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, October 29, 2012 at 9:50pm 10/29/2012 at 9:50pm

I have no implicit pro- or anti-Nate Silver bias. 

He was a journolist and in 2008 got some secret help with his predictions from the Obama campaign, but since joining The NY Times I think he has raised his game.

I find the whole focus on Silver and his presidential election “model” to be...

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Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong says Romney ahead in Gallup because people don’t know where to vote

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Posted by  ▪  Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 7:19pm 10/28/2012 at 7:19pm

Noted University of California – Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong has figured out why Mitt Romney is so far ahead in the Gallup tracking poll of likely voters.

His theory  is that Obama supporters like him are only now figuring out where to vote, so they do not pass Gallup’s likely voter screen.  Apparently,...

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Do Ohioans really want free phones more than a free country?

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, September 28, 2012 at 1:31pm 9/28/2012 at 1:31pm

It seems that all anyone is talking about is polling showing Obama pulling ahead.  Some of the polling says a little, some says a lot at least in certain swing states, particularly Ohio.

I understand and have listened to all of the explanation as to why the polling is skewed by the...

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Republicans whom the Gods would destroy, they first give hope in Pennsylvania

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, September 24, 2012 at 11:20am 9/24/2012 at 11:20am

The ancient “heathen proverb,” often applied to those who attempt to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict, seems appropriate to Republican presidential candidates and Pennsylvania.

New GOP-commissioned poll puts Romney 1 percentage point behind in Pa.

In contrast to other recent surveys, a new Pennsylvania poll commissioned by the Republican State Committee shows Mitt Romney...

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OMG, Romney’s back, SURGE, Comeback Kid, clutching victory from jaws of defeat, nothing to fear but fear itself, it ain’t over ’till it’s over, I can see U.S. hockey victory over Obama from my poll, U.S.A.! U.S.A.! …

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Posted by  ▪  Tuesday, September 11, 2012 at 9:30am 9/11/2012 at 9:30am

Defeatism is so last weekend.

Via WaPo:

Last week’s Democratic National Convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, but did little to reduce voter concern about his handling of the economy.

The survey shows that the race remains close among likely voters,...

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PPP finds Akin still leads McCaskill – Troll poll?

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Posted by  ▪  Monday, August 20, 2012 at 11:33pm 8/20/2012 at 11:33pm

PPP finds Todd Akin still leads Claire McCaskill, and that the numbers have not changed much since the controversy broke:

Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill...

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Do I live in the same country as these mysterious non-liberal Obama supporters?

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, August 10, 2012 at 10:24am 8/10/2012 at 10:24am

Paul Rahe (via Instapundit) compares the polling punditry to those who could not see the collapse of the Soviet Union coming because they were too focused on minutiae:

When I read Nate Silver, Sean Trende, Charlie Cook, Jay Cost, and the others who make a profession of political prognostication, I pay close...

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About those polls

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Posted by  ▪  Friday, July 20, 2012 at 3:30pm 7/20/2012 at 3:30pm

Jay Cost doesn’t see malevolent intent, just a history of oversampling Democrats consistently across a variety of polling organizations:

The clear answer is: they skew Democratic. In fact, every recent registered voter poll with party spreads I could identify had a Democratic advantage that exceeded the quarter-century trend. And the average of...

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We are all crackers now

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, June 13, 2012 at 8:30am 6/13/2012 at 8:30am

I posted last night about how Obama’s support among a core constituency, Jews in New York, has cracked.

Support for Obama also is cracking among blacks in North Carolina:

President Barack Obama is rapidly losing support among  African-American voters in North Carolina, a new poll out today from the Democratic-leaning Public Policy  Polling shows.

The poll...

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Taking the readership’s political temperature

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Posted by  ▪  Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 3:33pm 2/29/2012 at 3:33pm

What is your political mood right now?

1-10, worst-to-best.

Poll open until 10 a.m. Eastern, Thursday, March 1, 2012.