Operation Demoralize Has Failed
The ABC/WaPo poll released today is particularly gruesome for Democrats. Biden’s “red” speech also was a wake up call and motivator. Maybe the only success of the speech was to awaken sleeping Republican voters.
Remember how, on August 28, 2022, I told you Operation Demoralize is Back:
I understand how demoralizing the current situation is. The border is wide open. The full apparatus of the criminal justice system from DOJ to FBI to state prosecutors are weaponized for Democrat political purposes. To his (dis)credit, Biden has been able to do substantial and long-lasting damage to the country with just a 50/50 Senate.
Yet the narrative as recently as a month ago was that a red wave was coming in November.
That has changed. There is a concerted media effort to create the counter-narrative that the red wave has failed….
It happens every election cycle. Operation Demoralize.
“The media swarms and lies. Tells you it’s over, wants you to give up. Happens every single time.”
I’m not predicting specific election outcomes, but it’s pretty clear that Operation Demoralize has failed. The recent “likely voter” as opposed to “registered voter” generic ballot polling points to a strong Republican lead in a measure that has a history of predicting overall control of congress:
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Polling among LIKELY voters (09/07-21)
GOP — 51% (+5)
Dem — 46%
GOP — 46% (+1)
Dem — 45%
GOP — 48% (+4)
Dem — 44%
Data for Progress (D)
GOP — 47% (+2)
Dem — 45%
GOP — 48% (+6)
Dem — 42%Y pic.twitter.com/AzOgBosgMc
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 25, 2022
The ABC/WaPo poll released today is particularly gruesome for Democrats, particularly on their supposed ace-in-the-hole issue, abortion. Turns out on issues that motivate voters to actually vote, it’s not top priority:
On issues, the survey finds broad opposition to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling eliminating a constitutional right to abortion and a big Democratic advantage in trust to handle the issue. But there’s no sign it’s impacting propensity to vote in comparison with other issues: four rank higher in importance and two of them – the economy overall and inflation specifically – work strongly in the GOP’s favor….
But if abortion keeps the Republicans from entirely nationalizing the election around the economy, it doesn’t defang the public’s economic discontent. Seventy-four percent say the economy is in bad shape, up from 58 percent in the spring after Biden took office. The GOP leads the Democrats by 16 points in trust to handle the economy overall and by 19 points in trust to handle inflation.
There are other details in the poll that in isolation may not have significantly large samples to be reliable in isolation, but do mirror what we’ve seen elsewhere, such as Republican strength with independents and the closing of the black and hispanic gaps:
And another result is notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent – nearly as big as the Republican lead in solid GOP districts (+24 points). Democrats lead by 35 points in solid Democratic districts, pointing to a potential overvote where they’re most prevalent….
– Beyond differential turnout, weakness in midterm vote preference among Black and Hispanic voters may compound Democratic concerns. While Democratic House candidates lead their Republican opponents by 61 points among Black adults who are registered to vote, that compares with at least 79-point margins in exit polls in the past four midterms. This survey’s sample of Hispanics who are registered to vote is too small for reliable analysis, but the contest among them looks much closer than recent Democratic margins – 40 points in 2018, 27 points in 2014 and 22 points in 2010.
Add to that the swing Senate races that have tightened or Republicans even pulled ahead (AZ, PA, GA, WI, NV) and the generic and national polling seems to be consistent with Republicans having a very good shot at taking back the Senate.
To what should be attributed the turnaround from the dismal days of late August? First and foremost, the media narrative of a Democrat comeback was an illusion fed by garbage “registered voter” polling by garbage firms. So it never was there to begin with.
My gut also tells me that Biden’s “red” speech also was a wake up call and motivator. He was so over the top in his dehumanization of “MAGA Republicans,” and his DOJ/FBI are so politicized and weaponized, that there has been a great awakening. Maybe the only success of the speech was to awaken sleeping Republican voters.
Suggests the War on Semi-Fascist MAGA Republican theme was a flop, no?
There's time for new themes https://t.co/SxXAi2LF83
— Mickey Kaus (@kausmickey) September 25, 2022
So no matter how you slice it, there is no reason to be demoralized. Cautious and worried about the usual media/Democrat shenanigans and attempts at an October suprise – yes, that’s always a concern.
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This is a good website Doug Ross Journal and it’s 5 -6 times a week 20 Tweets from Bad Blue.
Only reason putting it up here is for Pa readers, see Dr Oz video at end
I’m not big on watching videos- I prefer the written word over spoken. Because of your comment I went back to the Top 20 Tweets for tonight and watched it. Dr. Oz would demolish Fetterman in a debate of any kind.
Worth watching and should remove his citizenship as an issue.
Glad he will still be able to care for his mother.
Remember Trafalgar stated it was now impossible to poll Republicans after they were demonized by Biden.
Trump supporters will no longer answer polls.
There is nothing to gain from answering polls., better to keep quiet and then stick it to them with the vote.
If the polls tell you your guy is behind, it’s “Operation Demoralize.”
If they tell you your guy is ahead, it’s “Operation Relax And Let The Other Guy Vote.”
They can play you either way.
Take them with a grain of salt, then get your ass off the couch and vote.
The only polls that the politicians take seriously are their internal polls. I stopped responding to polls long before Trump. You are never sure who the person on the other end of the line is and I’m on enough lists already.
Bad polling is to politics what bad marketing research is to advertisers. A great way to waste money chasing illusions.
How do they get an accurate count on their internal polling?
Just poll the die hards ?
Internal polls are not designed to mislead, but to let the politicians know the truth, and what works Vs what doesn’t.
OTOH, internal polling is significantly less reliable than it was a few generations back when everyone had a wired phone.
When governments become hostile to voters, voters become very distrustful of governments. It’s part of why tyrannies turn to violence. They just don’t care what citizens think.
I’ve been polled 3 time which is an anomaly in speaking to people. First one I lied about everything, 2cd two I swore at them and hung up. Actually I guess I was polled once since I hung up twice.
I started telling them i was voting for Mickey Mouse decades ago. They can take that however they like.
No wonder the trans rights line zoomed up.
Operation destroy America is still going on and Biden is Successful with that.
And no matter what happens in the midterms, Brandon and his righthand henchman, ‘Beria’ Garland, will still control the DOJ and FBI for the next 2 years. Not to mention ATF and ‘Homeland Security’. And the CIA and DoD.
“DOJ/FBI are so politicized and weaponized”
Shouldn’t Trump and others be pursuing violations under 18 US 242 Deprivation of Rights Under Color Law?
That statute has a 100% record of failure unless invoked by a government entity.
A normal midterm race would be expected to somewhat favor the Republicans. The reason I believe that it MIGHT be a blowout is that I think there is an “X” factor in this one. The Democrats’ policy performance – inflation, border, crime, schools, energy, Afghanistan, etc – has been so bad that even some Democrats will want there to be gridlock, so that we get as little more of it as possible.
In my opinion, there is also another factor. Inflation, as more accurately measured in the 1970’s, is likely running roughly ten percentage points above wage increases, not just a few points. If true, the number of families really struggling is likely very large. Finally, the financial markets are crashing at just the wrong time for the Democrats.
One advantage that we have is that every Democrat candidate is on the wrong side of every major issue: inflation, crime, illegal immigration, gun rights, the economy…. Even the Cocaine Turtle is sounding less confident by the day. I expect him to announce that he will not run for re-election soon after November. We get to take another shot at his remaining co-conspirators in 2 years and I expect some of them will retire too. Please leave. I expect McCarthy is not the shoo-in everyone believes. I think he’ll prevail but he will have to fight for it. Winning may be worse than losing for him if he doesn’t start delivering on day one.
We need to bear down and come out of November fighting, not celebrating. Things are about to change in DC and you don’t want to find yourself standing in the middle. Choose a side.
We may not need a veto-proof Senate to win against a president as unpopular as Brandon. There is probably a lot of support “across the aisle” to end this farce. Harris won’t be so bad with most of her “friends” gone or scared. The Democrats have their spineless polymorphs too and by next year, they’ll be singing a different tune if they want to survive the next 2 years.
This is the longest two months since 2020. They won’t steal the elections this time.
“They won’t steal the elections this time.”
Why? It worked last time. It is their only hope, just as it was last time.
They will cheat, they always do. Has there been enough done to stop it from stealing an election on the states that are tossups?
The damn republican party hasn’t done anything to stop the cheating/stealing.
So, again, why?
This is not a national election and several guilty states HAVE acted to stem this problem. They didn’t really get away with 2020 and they know it. Most voters no longer trust the voting system and this is making it harder for the cheaters to make the results stick. They can’t rig every state and local election and not get caught.
not splitting hairs but this is Barry and we know how he is
They “did” get away with it but at the expense of not “hiding” it.
The main reason they got away with it ( this is excluding the obvious cover they got from the guilty GOPe/RINO types who had a hand in it) was that previously the “masses” as a whole didn’t believe it possible so didn’t “demand” action.
Then as you pointed out so correctly, they will not get away with it as they did ever again ( not that they wont try)
Also, as you stated, they don’t have the ability to steal “all” the state elections and many states have made it more difficult.
Bad generals fight the last war. Don’t. They may steal the elections, but they will use a different playbook.
Two years ago COVID was the Democrat’s most powerful political weapon. Right now, the fully politicized FBI/DOJ is the Democrat’s most powerful weapon. If the Democrats lose big on Nov 8, I think they will act after the election but before Jan 3 to execute FBI raids on new Reps and Senators-elect, and jail them or kill them in pre-dawn raids on their homes. They will make sure the GOP doesn’t have a majority assembled in DC on Jan 3 even if a majority were elected on Nov 8.
If the country has a chance… the GOP will gain control of the House with significant gains and the Senate by 3 or 4. The cool part will be Nov-Jan as the lame-duck session kicks into hyper-drive jamming as much crap as possible, and much of it will likely be rule changes, etc, to try to tie the hands of the next Congress and ones after that. I hope the GOP is up to the fight. A larger MAGA caucus in the House should help with that.
” Biden has been able to do substantial and long-lasting damage to the country with just a 50/50 Senate.”
I only we knew how many Republicans were actually Democrats. We certainly know enough by now that 50/50 isn’t even close. More like 90/10 Democrats and even that may be generous. How many more Ted Cruz’s are there?
It’s just getting STARTED:
Half of 2023’s Diversity Visas to be given to migrants from Muslim countries:
Biden’s postal inspectors tracked pro-gun activists:
FBI reportedly raids dozens of Trump supporters nationwide:
Biden will be the last president of the Union as 50 states. Get ready.
That also routinely oversample Dems.
Well the southern border apparently doesn’t let enough Muslims in
I’m sorry, these people are NOT compatible with our culture amd they do want to kill is all
No I’m not sorry, I’m terrified
I really don’t understand Cruz’s lack of cojones.
The payoff must be huge
He’ll Never win another election in Texas again. Might as well run beto against him again, this time he’ll win, beto Francis’s that is
Not sure what you mean. I just listened to the latest Cruz Podcast and he was on fire.
Yeah, those snakes are great with the oratory. I don’t know where you’ve been the last week but Cruz is the guy who flipped to get the Big Tech/MSM bailout through the Senate. In fact, he was one of the main co-sponsors. Big Tech and Big Government are now legally empowered to censor everything. It doesn’t get much worse than that.
The growing number of independent voters are the key demo. These folks walked away from both major parties over the past three decades or so. Fortunately they just want sanity; low crime, decent schools, a govt at all levels that stays in their lane, leaves taxpaying citizens and their kids alone, picks up the trash, fixes the roads and defends the Nation without spending us into bankruptcy.
That very low bar can’t be met by the modern d/prog party. People have figured that out. Outside the deep blue enclaves and States folks don’t want what the d/prog are selling. The only group offering persistent support for Biden from election day to now are the +65 voters. Their support level has dropped less than every other group, about five points.
The d/prog koolaid drinkers will be screaming at the sky on election day when their utopia is rejected again.
I hope you are right Chief. OTOH, the same conditions have been present for 30 years and that “independent” voter group has been useless, voting for slavery most of the time.
Part of it is the degree of the problems. Another is that it’s easier to ignore some things when economic times are good. That’s definitely not the case now. Plus the issues and sides are pretty clear with little need for nuance.
End of the day I don’t think most folks that vote approve of CRT, rampant inflation, open borders, trans ideology, closing schools for Rona, the consequences of vax mandates, blowing out the federal budget, billions to Ukraine, Biden provoking Russia, Biden’s weakness towards China, the antics of the ‘Squad’ and prominent d/prog among other issues of the day.
Yes the independents were not the best of “stewards” in years past but those days ( and their situations) were radically different than the pure evil anarchy we face now.
People are not only feeling it now but they can readily see its going to get worse BY DESIGN ( that “by design” is also important because this is an “engineered decline”- not some random “force majeure”)
I’m one of those independent voters; became disgusted with the Republican party back when they held Congress and didn’t do any of the things that they had been promising, plus alienating us Tea Party voters who put them in power.
I still vote Republican, pretty much exclusively so, as does my wife. I do give up voting in the primaries and have been advised that I should be registering (R) again to help choose the general candidates, but I haven’t been able to bring myself to do so.
Most independent voters that I know are the same; I don’t know of any that support or vote (D). Ever.
I’m there with you. I became an “official” independent back with Romney and that group. ( Trump wasn’t even a thought back then so none of this goes on him)
I agree with your actions and reasoning- they are mine as well
Do you live in a closed primary state? Everywhere I have lived, people not registered with a particular party are allowed to choose a primary ballot on primary election day (only one, obviously). So one can still vote in the R primary without “being” a member.
This is why the dems and their electronic allies have election fraud. Every single election….election fraud.
Demoralization hasn’t just failed in the US, it is failing across the “free” world. UK, Sweden and Italy have now told their unelected EU masters to take a hike. So here is how it looks for the WEF’s plan:
We are by now well into the crisis phase and will likely be stuck there for a while If we fail in November, I expect some “hero” will emerge from the left promising to “normalize” everything and restore order “saving” us from the chaos wrought by Brandon, probably an Obama stooge. Good luck with that.
But luckily, things are unraveling for Der Fuhrer and his gangs of useful fools. Their phony altruistic masks are dropping everywhere. They just cannot hide their authoritarian ideals and ambitions. Schwab’s Fourth Reich dreams of global domination are looking shakier by the day.
If we win in November, at worst we will have stabilized the damage with gridlock while we keep hacking away at their foundations. More likely, Trump and DeSantis will be going on a rampage wrecking the left’s fragile house of cards and gaining steam as we head for 2024 and the final showdown. Given the nature of politicians, I would expect a snowball effect as more and more of the polymorphs grab Trump’s and DeSantis’ coattails.
This is no time to be staring at our navels and feeling sorry for ourselves. Things could change very fast in our favor if we pile on.
Anything the polls say, just account for the proven +8 democrat bias and re-evaluate.
Suddenly the picture is a lot different.
Are the polls intentionally biased, with the purpose of making it appear that some seats are still in play (when in fact they aren’t)? This would help conceal cheating. It’s obviously easier to overcome a 2% deficit than a 7% deficit. Overcome the former and it can look legit. Overcome the latter and eyebrows might be raised. Deflecting claims of “cheating” and “fraud” is easier when the apparent comeback isn’t overtly outrageous.
What my mind keeps going back to is how much of that “red wave” is something other than a Democrat wearing an elephant mask? Simply getting more “R” representatives into Congress isn’t quite the slam dunk it could be if many of them are Dem Lite or “moderate”, supporting the Democratic Party agenda but insisting that it be implemented more slowly (Romney, Murkowski, etc).
It is always interesting when a fascist regime calls its opposition semi-fascist
The projection is strong. He mentioned our name while describing the Dems to a T.
But the irony is that for once, they’re accurate.
Except that they’re applying the term to the wrong sect of the opposition.
I am concerned about the October Surprise, or even the November/December Surprise. There isn’t enough time for a new virus variant to generate an “emergency” before the vote, but there is plenty of time for a nuclear war emergency in Ukraine giving Biden the pretext to declare a national emergency and Martial Law. Since Putin is losing, he will at some point use hundreds of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and the Democrats will be planning to exploit that development for domestic purposes. Additionally, there is 2 months of lame duck period after the election, which is plenty of time for Biden to do something to prevent the newly elected reps and Senators from actually taking office on Jan 3. Don’t be surprised if the FBI kills a dozen or two on those newly elected representatives and senators in pre-dawn raids in November or December.
There is no accommodation for Martial Law in the constitution. None.
Yes, Lincoln did it. But Lincoln was a tyrant, the tyrant most responsible for converting our limited “federal” government into an unbounded “national” government.
How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
How do you unwind 100+ years’ ocean of “progressive” hegemony and institutional capture? One drop at a time.
Every race. Every candidate. Every issue. Every institution. Every presumption. Every story and fact. Every consequence. Every time.
I am all for a lot of “How’s that working out for us?” and “Maybe we can do better by doing less of that.”
When the elephant grows faster than you can eat it, the elephant wins.