“At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
For some reason, Democrats believe that Joe “I am the Democratic Party” Biden has turned the ship around and is leading the Democrats across a calm sea toward a victorious midterm election in which they make glorious gains in both the House and Senate. Stop laughing. They really believe that. Or they did last week.
This week, lefties are fretting that Biden’s demonic speech dehumanizing tens of millions of normal Americans because they don’t support his America Last policies may be making it even harder for pollsters to accurately predict November’s election.
A leading independent pollster said Saturday that polls might seriously undercount Republican voters in the current political climate.
In a Twitter thread, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert C. Cahaly said that President Joe Biden’s recent attacks on so-called “MAGA Republicans” will make polling supporters of former President Donald Trump even harder to poll than in previous years. Cahaly pointed out that in the last two presidential election cycles, name-calling and threats from prominent Democrats contributed to the phenomenon of the “shy Trump voter.” But as the 2022 midterms have begun in earnest, Biden’s escalating rhetoric against Trump supporters, accusing them of embracing “semi-fascism” and being a threat to America, will make these voters even harder to reach in polling.
. . . . “In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” Cahaly continued. “This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
. . . . “I call this new group ‘submerged voters,’” Cahaly went on. “They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.”
”The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing,” he concluded. “All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.’”
Sometimes unintended consequences are funny.
You can view the tweets here.
And it’s not just the Trafalgar Group’s leading pollster expressing concern, even Obama clown Dan Pfeiffer is sounding the alarm.
The polling addicts got a rude awakening last week.
Nate Cohn — as he often does — rained on the Democrats’ recent parade of optimism with a column that sent a lot of progressives into a rage (and others into the fetal position).
Early in the 2020 cycle, we noticed that Joe Biden seemed to be outperforming Mrs. Clinton in the same places where the polls overestimated her four years earlier. That pattern didn’t necessarily mean the polls would be wrong — it could have just reflected Mr. Biden’s promised strength among white working-class voters, for instance — but it was a warning sign.
That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.
It’s been six years since the great polling miss of 2016. We probably aren’t paying enough attention to the miss in 2020; still, as the polls predicted, Biden won. But the margins were way off in a lot of states. The industry seems no closer to solving the problem now than it was in the aftermath of Trump’s win. It’s not for lack of trying. I can only speak for the Democrats, but our polling community is filled with highly motivated, very smart individuals with massive incentives to get this right. The problem may not yet be fixed which raises the possibility that the polling problem is unfixable.
. . . . The truth is no one knows, but the results in this upcoming election will tell us a lot about if the last two presidential elections were polling flukes or if polling now is beyond repair. If it’s the former, we can go back to a healthy skepticism of polls. If it’s the latter, the art and science of politics is in for a massive overhaul.
Polling is unfixable in this climate due to the left’s own actions. The Democrats’ solution is a familiar and terrifying overhaul of the “art and science of politics”: demonize political opposition, send the federal government (FBI, DOJ, IRS) after dissenters, and lock up or otherwise nullify those dissident voices.
Remember, when Democrats wail about “our Democracy,” they literally mean their version of it, a version in which there is one-party rule, and their party is the one “ruling” over all Americans. It’s anti- and unAmerican, but then, so are they.DONATE
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