In early October, Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar polling, suggested that Republican voters would be undercounted, again.
The race for the Senate is still up for grabs and the polls shift almost daily, but the New York Times/Siena poll is giving Democrats a slight edge.
What you have to know is that the NY Times/Siena poll has a history of underestimating Republicans.
NYT/Siena Poll Overstated Democratic Support by…
5.7% in Arizona (2020)
5.55% in Pennsylvania (2016 & 2020)
3.3% in Nevada (2020) https://t.co/u0AJgHQuCX
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2022
From the New York Times:
Senate Control Hinges on Neck-and-Neck Races, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Control of the Senate rests on a knife’s edge, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, with Republican challengers in Nevada and Georgia neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbents, and the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania clinging to what appears to be a tenuous advantage.
The bright spot for Democrats in the four key states polled was in Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly is holding a small but steady lead over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters.
The results indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest: More people across three of the states surveyed said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate, but they preferred the individual Democratic candidates in their states — a sign that Republicans may be hampered by the shortcomings of their nominees.
As Ed Morrissey notes at Hot Air, the NY Times/Siena polls look like outliers compared to other polling at Real Clear Politics.
In early October, Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar polling, suggested that Republican voters would be undercounted again.
The Daily Wire reported:
Trafalgar Pollster Signals Republican Voters Will Be Undercounted Again Ahead Of Midterms
A top pollster signaled many deeply submerged Republican voters would be undercounted again in the weeks ahead of the 2022 Midterms Elections in November.
Robert Cahaly, founder and senior strategist and pollster of Trafalgar group, observed during the debut of Election Wire, a new weekly podcast from The Daily Wire scheduled to air every Sunday leading up to the elections next month, that with the upcoming election around the corner many Republican voters would be underestimated after legacy media talking heads and establishment politicians declared MAGA republicans “enemies of the state.”
“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”
Cahaly said voters shouldn’t trust polls in the coming weeks, considering many pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections by highly favoring Democrats and undercounting Republicans.
If the polls underestimate Republican voters, the GOP will win some of these races. In fact, they could win a majority of them. I’ll leave you with this:
Not making a prediction here but based on polling, this Senate map is within the realm of possibility. pic.twitter.com/J0jNozQmG3
— Mike LaChance (@MikeLaChance33) October 31, 2022
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