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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Posted by Sarah Rumpf on February 03, 2016 25 Comments
Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina is fighting to get on the debate stage on Saturday, the last one before the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. Current rules will issue invitations to the Republican candidates who finished in the top three in Monday's Iowa caucus -- that would be Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Donald Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) -- or who rank in the top six in averages of the latest national polls, or in averages of Granite State polls. As The Hill notes, the final decision will be made on Thursday. After Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) announced on Wednesday that they were suspending their campaigns, only Fiorina and former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) would be left on the sidelines of Saturday's debate. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee dropped out Monday after the caucus results were reported. For the first time this election cycle, there will be no undercard debate. Gilmore had a total of twelve supporters -- yes, as in just twelve people -- in the entire state of Iowa on Monday, and efforts to track down any of those twelve Gilmoreans created the most press attention he had received in months. In contrast, Fiorina has some arguments that are not without merit.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 03, 2016 171 Comments
Watching the votes trickle in from Iowa's Caucus Monday night, I suggested a second-place finish for Trump would be an unenjoyable experience for us all:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 03, 2016 37 Comments
CNN reports that former Senator Rick Santorum will end his presidential bid from Pennsylvania Wednesday night.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is ending his presidential bid, two Republican sources told CNN. He is expected to make the announcement Wednesday night and will endorse a candidate. Santorum won the 2012 Iowa caucuses and ended that race with the second-most number of delegates to eventually GOP nominee Mitt Romney. But he was unable to capture any momentum this year, despite extensive barnstorming efforts in Iowa. He is the third Republican presidential candidate to drop out after Monday's caucuses. Mike Huckabee ended his campaign that night, and Rand Paul suspended his campaign Wednesday morning.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on February 03, 2016 14 Comments
After finishing fifth in the Iowa caucus with less than 5% of the vote, Senator Rand Paul has announced that he is suspending his presidential campaign in order to focus on his Senate campaign in Kentucky. CNN reports:
"It's been an incredible honor to run a principled campaign for the White House," Paul said in the statement. "Today, I will end where I began, ready and willing to fight for the cause of Liberty."

Posted by Mike LaChance on February 03, 2016 22 Comments
Frank Luntz appeared on the Kelly File last night and offered a scathing rebuke of Right to Rise, the Super Pac supporting the candidacy of Jeb Bush which typically attacks Marco Rubio. Luntz said that when all is said and done they will have spent $100 million dollars and that it was wasted. He even said if he was a donor to the organization, he would demand his money back with interest, calling their ads "crap."

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 02, 2016 66 Comments
The death of the Tea Party movement has been widely reported, by people who reported that death before the 2010 surge election in which the movement played a critical role, and every few months thereafter for several years. It is true that the Tea Party monied-groups have mostly disappeared. To me, that's a good thing because some of them merely fed off the movement. I've always distinguished between the movement and the groups. I'm proud that Legal Insurrection was part of the movement from the start, and equally glad that we steered clear of the groups. But the movement itself has not died. This chart from Gallup through last fall tracks Tea Party support trends. Both support and opposition have fallen. A majority have no opinion or are neutral. http://www.gallup.com/poll/147635/tea-party-movement.aspx

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 02, 2016 13 Comments
He's appeared at campaign events with Sen. Rubio in South Carolina, but today Sen. Tim Scott made his endorsement official. Rumors of the endorsement began last night amid the Iowa excitement. This morning, Sen. Rubio's presidential campaign released the following video:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 01, 2016 130 Comments
The Iowa results are Cruz - Trump - Rubio, in that order, with Rubio surprisingly strong and (as of this writing) very close to taking second place. This is a big blow to Trump, and a big win for Cruz. Trump seemed unstoppable, with the most recent polls showing him up by 7 points. That is the big story of the night. At least in one state, Trumpmentum was stopped for a night. While Trump is far ahead in the polls in New Hampshire and nationally, this could burst the media narrative of inevitability. For Cruz, it's vindication. He has come under the sharpest attack in the past two weeks, and has been subjected to the sort of vetting and scrutiny that -- while uncomfortable -- was better coming now than later. Cruz Iowa Results 2

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 01, 2016 32 Comments
Welcome to our Iowa Caucus liveblog. We'll be updating periodically, so be sure to refresh your browser for the latest news. For the skinny on how this whole shindig works, see previous earlier post here.

Watch real time reaction:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 01, 2016 39 Comments
Welcome to our Iowa Caucus open thread. We'll be updating periodically, so be sure to refresh your browser for the latest. Caucus results will posted in a separate thread beginning at 8:00 PM ET, when the Caucus begins.

How does the Iowa Caucus work?

First things first. The Iowa Caucus explained:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 31, 2016 21 Comments
Many conservatives opine that what we need after Obama's disastrous presidency is the same cure we had after Jimmy Carter's disastrous presidency: a Ronald Reagan. This desire isn't lost on the Republican candidates for president.  Many are comparing themselves to President Reagan in the hopes of stoking, even fulfilling, that hope.  One such comparison to President Reagan was recently made by Donald Trump who compared his very recent Democrat background to that of President Reagan. The Hill reported at the time:
In response to questions about the business mogul’s previous status as a card-carrying Democrat, Trump said that he was in good company. “If you look at Ronald Reagan, and he was a Democrat, he was actually, Don, he was a Democrat with a very liberal, or at least a pretty liberal bent, and he became a Republican with a somewhat conservative — I wouldn’t say very, but he was a conservative Republican,” Trump said.
Watch:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 30, 2016 19 Comments
With final Des Moines Register polling showing Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton essentially even, consider this:
A little-noticed data point in the new Selzer & Co. Iowa poll, in fact, shows that 43 percent of likely [Democratic] voters in the Feb. 1 caucuses say they would use the word "socialist" to describe themselves. And to be very clear, this question was not whether they would vote for a socialist or sympathize with socialism; it's whether they consider themselvessocialist. The 43 percent of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers who self-identify as socialist is actually more than the number who identify themselves as capitalist — 38 percent.
That's right. More likely Democratic voters self-identify as Socialist than Capitalist. Here is the full chart:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 30, 2016 49 Comments
The Des Moines Register just released its final pre-caucus polling. Trump is up, but its close enough that everything will depend on turnout, as the Register analysis shows:
Donald Trump has muscled ahead in Iowa, regaining his lead on the brink of the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race. Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows. “The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.
This could be important:
Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump has a 16-point lead. But the universe of experienced caucusgoers is bigger, where Cruz has a 3-point lead.
Here is the rest of the field. Looks like Jeb, at 2, will have some decisions to make.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 30, 2016 14 Comments
Although John Kasich has recently surged in New Hampshire to tie for second place in the Granite State with Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush, few believe he has any chance at all of winning the GOP nomination. The New York Times hopes to change that, however, with their endorsement of Kasich today. The NYT writes:

Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, though a distinct underdog, is the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race. And Mr. Kasich is no moderate. As governor, he’s gone after public-sector unions, fought to limit abortion rights and opposed same-sex marriage.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 29, 2016 14 Comments
This is good. Really good. So good that Mother Jones magazine calls it an Unhinged Rant: Mother Jones conveniently provides a list of Carly Fiorina's points:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 29, 2016 134 Comments
There is lots of buzz that Marco Rubio is inching up in Iowa. There also seems to be a loose consensus that Rubio had the better of the debate last night. So Ted Cruz is turning his attention to Rubio with a negative ad campaign that previously was focused on Trump. The NY Times reports:
Senator Ted Cruz, scrambling to put down a growing threat in Iowa from Senator Marco Rubio, is shifting nearly all of his negative advertising from Donald J. Trump to Mr. Rubio for the final three days of the caucuses. Mr. Cruz intends to direct his firepower at his Senate colleague after days of seeing Mr. Rubio inch up both in public polling and his own private surveys, according to two advisers to Mr. Cruz who spoke on the condition of anonymity. After leading in the polls in Iowa for much of the last month, Mr. Cruz has slipped into second behind Mr. Trump in most public surveys.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 28, 2016 114 Comments
Welcome to our live coverage of the GOP presidential primary debate. The main stage debate begins at 9:00 EST. For the hottest takes on the Republican primary cluster, see here. The prime time debate will include:
  • Sen. Ted Cruz
  • Sen. Marco Rubio
  • Dr. Ben Carson
  • Gov. Jeb Bush
  • Gov. Chris Christie
  • Gov. John Kasich
  • Sen. Rand Paul

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