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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Posted by Jonathan Levin on January 20, 2016 189 Comments
Bob Dole, who has endorsed Jeb Bush, has weighed in on the budding Ted Cruz v. Donald Trump contest in the early GOP primaries, and backed Trump in the strongest terms.  According to the New York Times, Dole warned of "cataclysmic,” and “wholesale losses” if Cruz is nominated.

Dole's logic is viewing the Trump/Cruz contest explicitly in terms of what is better for the Republican Party establishment:

“I question his allegiance to the party,” Mr. Dole said of Mr. Cruz. “I don’t know how often you’ve heard him say the word ‘Republican’ — not very often.” Instead, Mr. Cruz uses the word “conservative,” Mr. Dole said, before offering up a different word for Mr. Cruz: “extremist.” . . .

The remarks by Mr. Dole reflect wider unease with Mr. Cruz among members of the Republican establishment, but few leading members of the party have been as candid and cutting.

Dole added that Cruz has falsely “convinced the Iowa voters that he’s kind of a mainstream conservative.”

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 20, 2016 73 Comments
Donald Trump recently stated that he wanted Apple manufacturing back to the U.S.:
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he will push for companies including Apple Inc. to bring manufacturing back to the United States. "Make America great again," Trump said in a speech at Liberty University in Virginia. "We’re going to get things coming. We’re gonna get Apple to start building their damn computers and things in this country instead of in other countries.”
Some are interpreting his words as saying he would use the power of government to force Apple back, others put a more benign spin on it, that he would develop policies to encourage Apple. Regardless, it is an empty promise. When I heard about the statement, I recalled an article from a few years ago making the case that the scale of what is needed is so enormous, that the U.S. does not have the engineering or manufacturing capacity, much less the labor force willing to work under conditions necessary. I don't know if this NY Times article is the one I recalled, but it made the point back in 2012, How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 19, 2016 79 Comments
As Donald Trump ramps up his attacks on Ted Cruz, the Washington Post is reporting that "The Republican establishment really, really doesn't like Ted Cruz."  This premise is nothing new to those of us who have been following Ted Cruz's career in the Senate and his presidential campaign, and to many serves as a feather in Cruz's cap.  The vitriol against him, though, is becoming quite pronounced . . . and not just from Trump. WaPo writes:
There's an assumption among casual consumers of politics that establishment Republicans loathe Donald Trump. Not really true.  Yes, they worry about what Trump might do downballot to the GOP if he is the nominee. But most view him with some mix of puzzlement and fascination. The Republican establishment saves its actual hatred for one man and one man only: Ted Cruz.
The evidence WaPo trots out is Iowa governor Terry "ethanol" Branstad.
Witness Terry Branstad, the four-term governor of Iowa and, without question, the face of the Republican establishment in the state. On Tuesday, he told reporters that he wants to see Cruz beaten in the Iowa caucuses in 13 days -- a remarkable admission by a sitting incumbent of such long standing.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 19, 2016 150 Comments
Seems like only yesterday I was watching Sarah Palin stump for Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate Runoff race. My how times have changed. Before a huge crowd gathered in the smoldering July heat of The Woodlands, Texas, alongside then Senator Jim DeMint, Palin said:
But the good news is, there is nothing wrong with America that a good ol' fashioned election can't fix. Ted [Cruz] is a proven, common sense, Constitutional conservative. He's a fighter and he will bring new leadership to the United States Senate. He will shrink government, he will be putting it back on the side of the people and he will defend the United States Constitution. Ted Cruz represents the positive change that we need.
In addition to Gov. Palin, Cruz also garnered endorsements from Senator Rand Paul, Senator Pat Toomey, Senator Jim DeMint, RedState, and Sean Hannity in 2012.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 19, 2016 13 Comments
When asked, Marco Rubio is not shy about sharing his faith (see here and here). Sen. Rubio is Catholic. At a recent campaign event, self-described atheist, Justin Scott, confronted Sen. Rubio about his faith. Referencing one of Rubio's latest ads, Scott explained there was concern in the non-theist community that Rubio was running to be "Pastor in Chief."

Posted by New Neo on January 19, 2016 94 Comments
Professor Jacobson has opined on the question of whether Ted Cruz qualifies to be president as a "natural born citizen." The short answer is: he definitely does. However, as Professor Jacobson also indicated, that hasn't stopped Trump from attempting to foster doubts in voters’ minds about it. You can see the results in the increased amount of chatter about the issue---which is likely to have been exactly what Trump wanted when he put forward his oh-so-helpful suggestion that Ted Cruz could and should settle the "natural born citizen" question by going to federal court and seeking a declaratory judgment on the matter. So, why doesn't Cruz do what Trump has suggested, and put it to rest? The reason is that it is almost certain that Cruz couldn't get a court to rule on the issue. J. Christian Adams, who was in the Justice Department under George W. Bush, explains why:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 18, 2016 21 Comments
Remember the debacle at the CNBC Republican debate in October, where the moderators were horrendous in their treatment of the candidates? I suggested at the time GOP needs to make an example of NBC News:
The GOP has a long history of subjecting its candidates to abuse by debate moderators. From George Stephanopolous to Candy Crowley, debates are a time for network journalists to earn their battle badges by damaging Republicans. And the GOP just sucks it up and takes it....

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 18, 2016 23 Comments
After being relegated to the Republican presidential primary undercard debate last week, presidential candidate Sen. Rand Paul decided not to attend. Mind you, debate stage rankings are based on national polling, but whatever. Childish? Perhaps. But nowhere near as cringe-worthy as this ad released not by an unaffiliated PAC, but by Paul's campaign. "Audit the Ted" takes aim at fellow Republican contender, Sen. Ted Cruz for his close ties to big banks. As evidence of this, the ad cites Cruz's Goldman Sachs loans. Two crudely animated characters with British accents (?) chat with one another about Cruz's "inside connections" and Paul's standing as the only liberty-oriented, good-haired candidate. Meanwhile, the voices are from a rudimentary talk and play program. The whole ordeal is terrible from beginning to end. Without further ado, "Audit the Ted."

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 18, 2016 10 Comments
Despite his and his team's efforts, Rand Paul's presidential campaign has simply not taken off.  The global unrest and Islamic terrorist threat work against him in this cycle, and he's clearly shaken by how little support he has managed to acquire.  In addition to refusing to appear in the undercard debate, Rand is now taking a stand against Donald Trump. In an interview on The Alan Colmes Show, he vowed to spend his "every waking hour" to "try to stop Donald Trump." The Hill reports:
Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul on Thursday pleged to spend "every waking hour" trying to keep rival Donald Trump from winning the GOP nomination. "Donald Trump takes us in the wrong direction. He would be a disaster. We’ll be slaughtered in a landslide," Paul said in an interview on the Alan Colmes radio show, as first reported by BuzzFeed. "That’s why my every waking hour is to try to stop Donald Trump from being our nominee." "I think we, the Republican Party, becomes the party of angry people that insinuate that most immigrants are drug dealers or rapists, that’s a terrible direction for our party," he said.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 17, 2016 30 Comments
Marco Rubio has taken a lot of heat for his work with Chuck Schumer and the Gang of Eight, so it's a bit surprising that only this morning he's arguing that illegal aliens can stay in the U.S. as long as they are not felons, specifically excluding the violation of our immigration laws. Politico reports:
Sen. Marco Rubio says people who immigrated to the U.S. illegally but haven’t committed any major crimes could be allowed to stay. In an interview airing Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” the Florida contender for the Republican presidential nomination said felons shouldn’t be allowed to stay, but those who commit lesser crimes could still qualify. In this interview, he didn’t specify whether those allowed to stay would ever be able to become citizens. “If you’re a criminal alien, no, you can’t stay. If you’re someone that hasn’t been here for a very long time, you can’t stay,” he said. “I don’t think you’re gonna round up and deport 12 million people.”
The DC Caller has more:
Todd then asked Rubio, “Let me ask you on the 11 million [illegal immigrants already in America], are you still for finding a way for them to legally stay in the United States?”

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 17, 2016 142 Comments
I was a guest on Caffeinated Thoughts Radio on 93.3 FM in Iowa on Saturday, January 16, 2016. (Full audio at bottom of post.) The topic was Ted Cruz and the "natural born Citizen" controversy. For my prior analysis, which is referred to in the radio discussion, see my September 3, 2013 post, natural born Citizens: Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Ted Cruz. In the past 2.5 years, many people have sent me complaints and supposed analyses of things I missed; I track those down and not a one has persuaded me one iota that my analysis was wrong. As I said in that post:
I also am not trying to “win” the argument. I have no intention (hah!) of getting into the endless argument streams this topic engenders, where for every answer there is a new obscure historical reference or convoluted theory until someone gives up. There are some things you just can’t “win” on the internet, and this is one of them.
Yet it sickens me the way Donald Trump and Ann Coulter have demagogued the issue. They may be successful in creating doubts in voters' minds; that's the nature of propaganda, it sometimes works. Here are excerpts from my interview; the full audio is at the bottom of the post:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 16, 2016 79 Comments
Following the GOP debate, Professor Jacobson noted that it looks like a two person race between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, and not only is this view becoming a consensus but apparently Trump thinks so, too. Trump has taken to Twitter to rant and rave against Cruz. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/688327093214662657

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 15, 2016 183 Comments
The exchange between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump on "NY values" was one of the highlights of last night's debate. While Cruz clearly was referring to liberalism, he used a phrase that left him open to Trump's counterattack invoking 9/11: The media is thrilled with Trump's response. Of course, much of that media is in or from NY City. I expressed last night that I wasn't sure that the issue would play in Trump's favor outside NY. I was born in NYC, spent my early childhood there, grew up in and returned to the NYC suburbs after law school until moving to Rhode Island in 1993. And since 2008 have lived (originally part time now full time) in Ithaca. I understand what Cruz was referring to. And it has nothing to do with knocking the heroism of NY police and firemen, or how New Yorkers reacted under attack. It has everything to do with political, economic and social outlooks which are not accepted in the Republican Party in general much less among conservatives. The Cruz campaign apparently thinks this is a fight it needs to have, via Washington Examiner:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 14, 2016 137 Comments

Big Picture

Tonight's GOP debate was Ted Cruz's night. He went right after Donald Trump multiple times, but in a way that came across as forceful and informed, but not nasty. He also fended off a pretty vigorous attack from Marco Rubio. His strongest points came early and against Trump, when the audience would be the largest. Trump was runner-up. He had a good moment on Cruz's slam on "NY Values," but I'm not sure how defending NY values plays outside NY. His performance will confirm pre-existing views of him. Rubio had an okay night, not great, not horrible. Maneuvered the immigration issue into one of national security -- in other words Gang of 8 was then, this is now. Landed some punches on Cruz at the end. Christie may have raised his profile as the acceptable establishment candidate, as Jeb again failed to impress, and Kasich was Kasich. At least Christie showed some fight. Biggest loser -- Ben Carson. Didn't seem to be in the game at many levels.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 14, 2016 28 Comments
Chelsea Clinton is a highly successful person, for reasons entirely related to the circumstances of her birth, not her qualifications or personal accomplishments. The sweetheart deal she received at NBC came to epitomize the crony political capitalism her parents so effectively turned into a megafortune, as this August 29, 2014, NY Times report reflected:
Ms. Clinton, who is vice chairwoman of the philanthropic organization her father founded, made an annual salary of $600,000 at NBC, according to Politico. She remains on the board of IAC/InterActiveCorp, the digital media company overseen by Barry Diller, a longtime Clinton supporter. In 2011, that position paid an annual retainer of $50,000 and a $250,000 grant of restricted stock.
When Chelsea was the child in The White House, and even after that when she was a private person, she was entitled to privacy and freedom from political attack so long as her political role was limited to trying to make her mother seem human to a skeptical public.

Posted by Mike LaChance on January 14, 2016 19 Comments
There is another Republican debate tonight and Jeb Bush will participate despite his lagging campaign and poll numbers. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Bush at 4.7 percent. Jeb's message never caught on despite plenty of media attention and financial backing. It didn't help that he is an establishment candidate or that he's viewed by many as a legacy candidate like Hillary Clinton. Bush has tried to jump start his campaign by attacking Donald Trump numerous times but that has backfired and worked in Trump's favor. It might be time for the governor to call it quits. Perhaps the most telling reason is this photo from a Bush rally last night:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 13, 2016 78 Comments
It must be old campaign oppo dump day in America. Earlier today, an old, deceptively edited campaign ad from Marco Rubio's Senate run floated to the surface of the internet. This evening, the New York Times thinks they have a hot scoop with a story about Ted Cruz's Goldman Sachs loans. The New York Times is about four years late to the "exclusive" party though. Cruz's Goldman Sachs loans are old news. According to their 2012 personal filings, the Cruz's took loans from both Goldman Sachs and Citibank. His wife, Heidi Cruz, works for Goldman Sachs, but is currently on leave. These loans were not, however, disclosed in the FEC filings for Cruz's campaign, Ted Cruz for Senate Committee. First, the NYT story:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 13, 2016 11 Comments
Tuesday, The Hill reported the State Department will sift through and release emails of top Hillary Clinton aide, Huma Abedin. 29,000 pages of Adedin's emails will be scrutinized by the State Department for monthly release over the next 14 months. At least 400 pages per month (should they meet certain requirements) will be published in a similar fashion as Hillary Clinton's. From The Hill:
The State Department has agreed to comb through 29,000 pages of emails from a top aide to Hillary Clinton and release batches of those emails every month.
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