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February 2016

Posted by David Gerstman on February 03, 2016 7 Comments
Three weeks ago, ten American sailors on two naval boats were seized by Iran. One of the first readouts of what happened came from the State Department with this tidbit:
Now, the Secretary then got on the phone with Foreign Minister Zarif for the first time – I think the first of at least five phone calls they had during the course of that afternoon and evening – at about 1 o’clock in the afternoon. The main message that he – there were a few messages he wanted to convey to the foreign minister. One, to provide him with some information about our understanding of what had happened, which was not perfect but was sort of developing in real time. And we had gathered some information including that the sailors were in transit at the time of the incident, that they were in transit between Kuwait and Bahrain, that they may have had some sort of mechanical problem – although at that point we weren’t sure – that we had lost communications with them, and that we had indications that they were now located on Farsi Island in the Gulf. The Secretary made clear that our most important priority – and that this was critical – was that they be released, obviously, safely and unharmed and as quickly as possible, and that if we were able to do this – and this is something that he said to Zarif on a few occasions – if we are able to do this in the right way, we can make this into what will be a good story for both of us.
Think about that last line, "a good story for both of us."

Posted by Sarah Rumpf on February 03, 2016 25 Comments
Republican presidential candidate Carly Fiorina is fighting to get on the debate stage on Saturday, the last one before the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. Current rules will issue invitations to the Republican candidates who finished in the top three in Monday's Iowa caucus -- that would be Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Donald Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) -- or who rank in the top six in averages of the latest national polls, or in averages of Granite State polls. As The Hill notes, the final decision will be made on Thursday. After Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) announced on Wednesday that they were suspending their campaigns, only Fiorina and former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) would be left on the sidelines of Saturday's debate. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee dropped out Monday after the caucus results were reported. For the first time this election cycle, there will be no undercard debate. Gilmore had a total of twelve supporters -- yes, as in just twelve people -- in the entire state of Iowa on Monday, and efforts to track down any of those twelve Gilmoreans created the most press attention he had received in months. In contrast, Fiorina has some arguments that are not without merit.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 03, 2016 171 Comments
Watching the votes trickle in from Iowa's Caucus Monday night, I suggested a second-place finish for Trump would be an unenjoyable experience for us all:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 03, 2016 37 Comments
CNN reports that former Senator Rick Santorum will end his presidential bid from Pennsylvania Wednesday night.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is ending his presidential bid, two Republican sources told CNN. He is expected to make the announcement Wednesday night and will endorse a candidate. Santorum won the 2012 Iowa caucuses and ended that race with the second-most number of delegates to eventually GOP nominee Mitt Romney. But he was unable to capture any momentum this year, despite extensive barnstorming efforts in Iowa. He is the third Republican presidential candidate to drop out after Monday's caucuses. Mike Huckabee ended his campaign that night, and Rand Paul suspended his campaign Wednesday morning.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 03, 2016 79 Comments
In all the news noise over the Iowa caucuses, a decision by the Illinois Board of Elections passed almost entirely under the radar. There was much hoopla when two voters filed a challenge to Ted Cruz appearing on the ballot because Cruz allegedly was not a "natural born Citizen" and ineligible. (My research and conclusions on the subject are here.) I have not been able to find the actual decision, but Huffington Post reports:
Two objectors, Lawrence Joyce and William Graham, had challenged Cruz's presidential bid with the board, contending that his name should not appear on the March 15 ballot because his candidacy did not comply with Article II of the Constitution. Adopting the recommendations of a hearing officer who considered the matter last week, the board of elections on Monday rejected both objections, ruled Cruz eligible and ordered that his name be certified for the election.

Posted by Jonathan Levin on February 03, 2016 13 Comments
The long-running battle between the Chicago Teachers' Union (the "Union") and the Chicago Public Schools ("CPS") has turned even uglier.  The Chicago Tribune reports that the Union rejected CPS's most recent contract offer Monday, and CPS responded by cutting budgets by a cool $100 million. Combative negotiations between CPS and the Union have become the norm.  In September, 2012, the Union went on strike, leaving students and parents alike in the lurch.  In addition to the typical issues in teachers contract disputes (evaluations, pay and benefits, class sizes), Time reported that the Union explicitly demanded mayoral indulgence:
RAHM EMANUEL’S SUPPORT OF UNIONS When Emanuel took the mayorship of Chicago last May, he vowed to overhaul Chicago’s notoriously underperforming schools, particularly on the impoverished south side of the city. But the mayor’s first major negotiation with a city labor union has resulted in this strike, making worse his already poor relationship with union leaders worse. Emanuel has often butted heads with often-hotheaded union president Karen Lewis, after he bypassed the union’s opinion last year and went straight to the schools with an offer of bonus pay if they lengthened the school day. At a news conference, he called Monday’s walkout a “strike of choice,” saying he believed that the two sides were close to an agreement.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on February 03, 2016 14 Comments
After finishing fifth in the Iowa caucus with less than 5% of the vote, Senator Rand Paul has announced that he is suspending his presidential campaign in order to focus on his Senate campaign in Kentucky. CNN reports:
"It's been an incredible honor to run a principled campaign for the White House," Paul said in the statement. "Today, I will end where I began, ready and willing to fight for the cause of Liberty."

Posted by Mike LaChance on February 03, 2016 22 Comments
Frank Luntz appeared on the Kelly File last night and offered a scathing rebuke of Right to Rise, the Super Pac supporting the candidacy of Jeb Bush which typically attacks Marco Rubio. Luntz said that when all is said and done they will have spent $100 million dollars and that it was wasted. He even said if he was a donor to the organization, he would demand his money back with interest, calling their ads "crap."

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 03, 2016 21 Comments
Pallywood is the Palestinian industry of creating fake images, events and stories to demonize Israel. It is a critical part of the worldwide, decades-long propaganda campaign against Israel. Pallywood is not done only by Palestinians. In fact, some of the most egregious perpetrators are Western anti-Israel leftists who create and spread false or distorted stories about Israel. The NY Times just got Pallywooded. Anti-Israel activists, the identities of whom are not currently known, created a fake Supplement Edition of the Times with fake stories meant to pursue anti-Israel narratives. Parody NY Times anti-Israel Israel General Homepage

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 02, 2016 66 Comments
The death of the Tea Party movement has been widely reported, by people who reported that death before the 2010 surge election in which the movement played a critical role, and every few months thereafter for several years. It is true that the Tea Party monied-groups have mostly disappeared. To me, that's a good thing because some of them merely fed off the movement. I've always distinguished between the movement and the groups. I'm proud that Legal Insurrection was part of the movement from the start, and equally glad that we steered clear of the groups. But the movement itself has not died. This chart from Gallup through last fall tracks Tea Party support trends. Both support and opposition have fallen. A majority have no opinion or are neutral. http://www.gallup.com/poll/147635/tea-party-movement.aspx

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 02, 2016 11 Comments
Yet another story lost in the Iowa Caucus hubbub -- documents from the campaigns of former Sen. McConnell challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes and her father, Jerry Lundergan, were subpoenaed by a federal grand jury yesterday. You may remember Lundergan Grimes. She's the testy, shotgun-shooting Kentucky Democrat who repeatedly refused to answer a very simple question -- "Did you vote for Barack Obama?" She lost her Senate bid in 2014, but is serving a second term as Kentucky's Secretary of State. Lundergan Grimes seems harmless enough, so how did her campaign end up in the federal crosshairs? A campaign bus. A bus used during her campaign was owned by one of her Dad's companies. Allegations that Lundergan Grimes used the bus at a discounted rate led to an investigation into whether use of the bus was an, "illegal in-kind contribution from a corporation."

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 02, 2016 13 Comments
He's appeared at campaign events with Sen. Rubio in South Carolina, but today Sen. Tim Scott made his endorsement official. Rumors of the endorsement began last night amid the Iowa excitement. This morning, Sen. Rubio's presidential campaign released the following video:

Posted by Jonathan Levin on February 02, 2016 4 Comments
As negotiations to negotiate an end to the Syrian civil war plod along, the UN has admitted, internally, that it is powerless to enforce any Syria peace deal. According to Foreign Policy, the UN knows it cannot enforce or even monitor any peace deal it brokers:
In a confidential strategy paper exclusively obtained by Foreign Policy, the office of the United Nations’ top envoy to Syria warns that the U.N. would be unable to monitor or enforce any peace deal that might emerge from landmark political talks underway in Geneva. The paper raised concerns the world might harbor unrealistic expectations about the U.N.’s ability to oversee and verify a cease-fire in a civil war beset by a dizzying array of armed factions and terrorist groups. “The current international and national political context and the current operational environment strongly suggest that a U.N. peacekeeping response relying on international troops or military observers would be an unsuitable modality for ceasefire monitoring,” according to the “Draft Ceasefire Modalities Concept Paper” by U.N. envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura’s team. In plain English, that means Syria will be far too dangerous for some time for traditional U.N. peacekeepers to handle.

Posted by Leslie Eastman on February 02, 2016 41 Comments
In his analysis of the Republican results in the Iowa Caucus, Professor Jacobson indicated that he was right to trust the voters to get the best result. On the other side of the aisle, the Democratic Party placed its trust elsewhere. At least six Iowa precincts flipped coins to call Hillary Clinton the victor. Des Moines Register political reporter Jason Noble covered the caucus in Ames, Iowa.

Posted by Vijeta Uniyal on February 02, 2016 5 Comments
According to the head of Iran’s state-run oil company NPC, two leading German companies are set to invest a total of €12 billion in Tehran’s petroleum and gas sector. The latest agreement could make Germany the first big foreign investor in Iranian oil sector, after the nuclear deal was signed seven months ago. Once the deal is finalized, these German firms will start setting up petrochemical plants in Assaluyeh in southern Iran. Mullahs in Tehran plan to get 6 unfinished petrochemical projects off the ground, which could double Iran’s annual oil revenue. Germany has been the biggest European beneficiary of the Iranian Nuclear Deal. As German companies hoping to get up to €6 billion in back payments from Tehran, once country’s banking assets are unfrozen as part of the Obama-backed deal.

Posted by Leslie Eastman on February 02, 2016 1 Comment
The World Health Organization officially declared a "public health emergency of international concern" over the wildfire spread of the Zika virus.
The agency said the emergency is warranted because of how fast the mosquito-borne virus is spreading and its suspected link to an alarming spike in babies born with abnormally small heads -- a condition called microcephaly -- in Brazil and French Polynesia. Reports of a serious neurological condition, called Guillame-Barre Syndrome, that can lead to paralysis, have also risen in areas where the virus has been reported. Health officials have specifically seen clusters of this in El Salvador, Brazil and French Polynesia, according to WHO's Dr. Bruce Aylward.
Brazilian officials are claiming the outbreak is even worse than reported, because most cases show no overt symptoms of "Zika". Therefore, testing potentially infected people (especially pregnant women) will be one element of controlling the public health crisis.

Posted by Mike LaChance on February 02, 2016 29 Comments
Bernie Sanders supporters are very enthusiastic, but seem a little short on political philosophy. A reporter from CNN recently asked attendees at a Sanders town hall event to describe socialism. Josh Feldman reported at Mediaite:
CNN’s Baldwin Asks Sanders Supporters to Define the Word ‘Socialist’ At a recent Bernie Sanders rally, CNN anchor Brooke Baldwin asked some of his supporters to define the word socialism. And, well, some of them didn’t exactly know…

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on February 02, 2016 22 Comments
In the wake of the Cologne mass sexual attacks and her failed attempts to disassociate the Middle Eastern refugee influx from the crimes they commit, Angela Merkel is trying a new tactic. Having "lost" 600,000 refugees, Merkel is now trying to placate the German people with the idea that these refugees will all "go home" once the civil wars in Syria and Iraq are resolved. Reuters reports:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel tried on Saturday to placate the increasingly vocal critics of her open-door policy for refugees by insisting that most refugees from Syria and Iraq would go home once the conflicts there had ended. . . . . Merkel said it was important to stress that most refugees had only been allowed to stay for a limited period.
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