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Ted Cruz Tag

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 23, 2016 272 Comments
This may now officially be a series, "Can you imagine Trump in control of ...." Prior posts on topic: Current entry in the series: A small SuperPAC founded and run by Liz Mair did a mailer in Utah showing a public photo of Melania Trump from a magazine shoot 15 or so years ago. I have to say, Melania looked marvelous in the shoot. It's almost -- almost -- enough to make some anti-Trumpers reconsider. But it was a completely sleazy tactic attempting to "slut shame" Melania.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 23, 2016 20 Comments
Didn't feel like staying up until 3:00 in the morning to watch election returns? Have no fear. I was dutifully eating gelato and cross-stitching, keeping tabs on the state of the union WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING. So here's what happened in no particular order:

On the Republican side:

Cruz won big in Utah, likely securing all 40 delegates there. Trump took Arizona where he won the state's 58 delegates. All 9 of America Samoa's delegates will go the the convention uncommitted.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 21, 2016 18 Comments
All three remaining presidential candidates are scheduled to address attendees at AIPAC's annual conference this evening. Donald Trump kicked off tonight's keynote speeches at 5:00 PM EST (see here for our coverage).

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 16, 2016 125 Comments
There was supposed to be a Fox News Republican Debate Monday night. That was until Donald Trump did well last night, and decided he didn't need another debate. Trump says he didn't even know about the debate, even though everyone else did, and won't participate because he is speaking before AIPAC: Except that as of yesterday his speech was not scheduled for a specific time slot:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 15, 2016 91 Comments
Donald Trump had a good night, but he's still far from what it takes to win what is required -- a majority of all delegates. Here is the delegate count as of approximately 11:45 p.m. Eastern tonight. It will change somewhat because the delegate allocation calculations are not simple. Republican delegate count 3-15-2016 Trump supporters -- and some in the *conservative* media -- want to pretend that having a plurality of delegates or raw vote entitles Trump to the nomination. But it doesn't.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 14, 2016 15 Comments
It's Super Tuesday (again) Eve! Tomorrow, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio have will hold their primary elections. Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states; no delegate splitting in either. Here's the latest from the wild world of campaigns:

Florida's Attorney General endorses Trump

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 10, 2016 20 Comments
Welcome to our live coverage of tonight's GOP debate.

How to watch:

When and where is the debate? The Republican debate will be held at the University of Miami at 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday. How can I watch it? It will be broadcast live on CNN, as well as live-streamed online at CNN.com and across mobile devices for all users without logging in. CNN International and CNN en Espanol will also simulcast the debate. Salem Radio Network will be the exclusive radio provider for the debate. Who will moderate the debate? CNN's Jake Tapper will moderate and CNN's Dana Bash, Salem talk radio host Hugh Hewitt and The Washington Times' Stephen Dinan will join as questioners.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on March 10, 2016 17 Comments
Presidential hopeful Sen. Ted Cruz finally has the support of one of his colleagues -- Sen. Mike Lee has endorsed him. Politico reports:
Utah Sen. Mike Lee plans to endorse Texas Sen. Ted Cruz Thursday, making him the first U.S. senator to back Cruz’s presidential bid, sources told POLITICO. In a blow to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, whose campaign is on life support as he seeks to avoid a knock-out blow in his home state Tuesday, Lee is expected to make the announcement in Rubio’s hometown of Miami ahead of Thursday night’s GOP debate. Lee is close with both senators, and he had resisted jumping into the race and potentially alienating one of them. He sat down with Rand Paul, Rubio and Cruz as the presidential campaign got underway one year ago and told them: “Look: I’m in an awkward spot because I’m really close to all three of you guys.”

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 09, 2016 51 Comments
Last night is being hyped as a Yuuuge comeback for Trump. Actually, not much changed other than the media narrative:
Last night's primary and caucus results changed the momentum in both presidential races. But they didn't significantly alter the overall math and trajectory of the two contests. Let's start with the Republican race. Donald Trump headed into last night losing some steam after Ted Cruz's gains over the weekend. And what did Trump do? He won the Michigan and Mississippi primaries by double digits over Cruz, and he even triumphed in Hawaii's caucuses. (Trump's one loss came in Idaho, where Cruz beat him, 45%-28%.) Still, the results don't truly change the overall math for Trump: He still needs to win Florida and/or Ohio to be on a stronger path to the 1,237 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination. The good news for him: His top competition in Florida (Marco Rubio) and Ohio (John Kasich) certainly don't have the political winds at their backs. Here's the GOP delegate math: Trump currently has a 93-delegate lead over Cruz

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 08, 2016 103 Comments
Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

Idaho · 32 delegates

Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

Posted by Jonathan Levin on March 08, 2016 42 Comments
The Rules Of The Republican Party deal with the organization and operation of the Republican Party, including everything from apportioning delegates to the national convention, to how to change the rules themselves. What if I told you that the RNC had a rule that under some circumstances could result in no candidate's name being placed in nomination so that the Republicans had no nominee; or create a convention deadlock because the only candidate whose name could be placed in nomination could not be nominated because he didn't have a majority of delegates as is required under another rule; or in another scenario only one candidate who didn't even have a majority of delegates would claim the nomination over the objection of the majority of delegates. If you didn't know the names of the candidates or which scenario played out, you'd say "that's absurd, change the rule." That latter scenario may very well play out, and hand Donald Trump the nomination (in the view of his supporters) even if he didn't have a majority of delegates, and even if most delegates didn't want him to be the nominee. It's all because of Rule 40(b).  Which is why if the RNC has any sense, it will change the rule as soon as possible to avoid an absurd and the undemocratic (small "d") result.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on March 04, 2016 50 Comments
Ted Cruz is an excellent public speaker, and today's CPAC speech was yet more evidence of this (and look, Obama, no teleprompter!). The crowd is clearly enthusiastic about Cruz, the raucous cheers almost drown out his introduction.  Of course he takes jabs at Trump for cancelling his scheduled CPAC appearance, saying that Trump must have heard that Megyn Kelly, conservatives, libertarians, or young people would be there.  The crowd went wild.  There were a few lone voices trying to chant "Trump, Trump, Trump," but they were quickly drowned out by the CPAC audience's booing. Cruz gives a wonderful speech about the principles that make America great in the first place, something he implies is not well-understood by Trump, and he talks about how to free the economy, secure our nation, and keep Americans free in the process:  jobs, security, and liberty were his themes.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on March 04, 2016 59 Comments
While Marco Rubio won his first state (Minnesota) and surged late in Virginia and Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska for a total of four state wins, Donald Trump did very well in the Super Tuesday primaries.  So well, in fact, that conservatives are beginning to search in earnest for a means to win the GOP nomination with a conservative candidate. One such idea is being touted as the "Unity" ticket of Cruz and Rubio (or Rubio and Cruz, though this seems less likely). Writing at The Resurgent, Erick Erickson argues for this in stark terms: "Unite or Die."
To truly beat Trump and keep his supporters from completely fleeing, Trump must be beaten in the primaries, not on the floor of the convention. And it is still mathematically possible, but it requires Cruz to win Florida, not Rubio. All of this talk by Rubio voters about later states, closed primaries, and favorability ignores voter psychology and, frankly, ignores the fact that Marco Rubio’s Gang of Eight position has poisoned the well too much for too many Republican voters. It will, in fact, go down as one of the worse political miscalculations in the last quarter century. All of this talk by Rubio voters ignores that Rubio and Cruz together can win Florida and Ohio, but divided cannot and only increase the odds of either a Trump nomination or the delegitimization of the process by which the GOP will pick its nominee.

Posted by New Neo on March 02, 2016 41 Comments
Even before yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries, it seemed that Cruz and Rubio were locked in a game of Chicken, and it promised to be a bumpy ride. The same holds true now:
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield. The name "chicken" has its origins in a game in which two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash, but if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a "chicken," meaning a coward.
Although there are five players now left in the GOP primary, one is dominant (Trump) and the two second-place candidates have been trading leads (Cruz and Rubio), with the other two (Kasich and Carson) very far behind. Back when the game featured far more players, the GOP race seemed a variation of the Tragedy of the Commons:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 29, 2016 98 Comments
Donald Trump launched his campaign popularity with a hard line on immigration, not limited to The Wall. It struck a chord with the electorate, as I noted in a guest column at National Review on July 13, 2015, Trump’s Lesson: Voters Are Furious about Illegal Immigration:
.... something happened on the way to the denunciations and purges [of Trump]. Kate Steinle was murdered in San Francisco, a sanctuary city. Steinle was killed in broad daylight on a popular pedestrian pier in a business and tourist district, by an illegal immigrant with a long criminal record who had been deported five times and recently was released from custody…. In the wake of the murder of Kate Steinle, many Republican candidates have denounced the sanctuary-cities agenda. There is talk of withholding funding from cities that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities. But who among the Republican candidates has stood side by side with the families who have lost loved ones to illegal-immigrant criminals? Trump did….”
Since then, immigration has continued to be the rocket fuel in Trump's campaign.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 25, 2016 101 Comments
The biggest take away from the CNN Republican Debate is that contrary to prior promises, Donald Trump says he will not release his income tax returns because he is being audited. There is no law, that I'm aware of, prohibiting such release. It sounded like a massive dodge, since IRS audits can go on for years. Trump even said his last 4-5 years of returns are being audited. Trump was his usual, petty self, gratuitously insulting Hugh Hewitt for supposedly having low ratings, even when Hewitt hadn't asked hostile question at the time, but reminded Trump of the prior promise to release the returns. I guess Trump supporters will see such conduct as "tough" and being a "fighter," but it was childish. Perhaps more important, Marco Rubio was the first person in any of the debates to successfully take on Trump on a range of issues.  Rubio mocked and belittled Trump in the humorous, mocking and highly effective manner that Trump used to make Jeb look small.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 21, 2016 81 Comments
About a month ago, when Donald Trump was claiming that Ted Cruz probably was not eligible to be president, Trump was questioned by Jake Tapper about whether Marco Rubio was eligible. Trump exhibited some legal understanding of the issue, citing an op-ed written by Harvard Professor Laurence Tribe. Trump's conclusion was that he had no doubts Rubio was eligible:
"It's a different [than Ted Cruz], very different thing because he was born here. He was born on the land."
As the attacks on Cruz's eligibility rose in intensity and Trump threatened suit, I predicted that Trump would have a hard time holding that line if Rubio rose in the polls and became Trump's main challenger:
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