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Polling Tag

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 13, 2011 31 Comments

As you know, I'm highly skeptical of polls showing Jews turning against Obama in substantial numbers.  So, in what may be a first, I'll have to agree with the Plum Line guys, Greg Sargent and Adam Serwer, about Jews and Obama. Jews are not going to vote against...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 11, 2011 24 Comments

Obama is holding another press conference today, at 11 a.m. , with regard to the debt talks.  The last press conference was an unmitigated disaster for him, leading one MSNBC talking head to drop the "D" bomb. My take is that we will see a different...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on May 03, 2011 12 Comments

Gallup is out with a poll taken yesterday on the issue of who deserves credit for finding and killing Osama bin Laden.The results are very telling.  Understandably, the U.S. military gets the most credit (89% Great Deal, 9% Moderate Amount), followed by the CIA (62/26).Obama has been...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on April 28, 2011 10 Comments

Maybe, just maybe slightly.  But it will not last.  Here's why:In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 429,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 408,500, an...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on April 12, 2011 6 Comments

If you have not realized it by now, Public Policy Polling -- which works for DailyKos -- has become an important part of the left-wing messaging machine, with a relentless series of polls spun as bad news for Republicans since the November 2010 elections, and...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 31, 2011 7 Comments

That's the headline you will not see.  Instead, you will see this headline:  "Obama Approval Ratings On The Rise Among Millennials, Especially on College Campuses, Harvard Poll Finds."And this headline:Obama Job Approval Rises Among Young Voters: Millennials More Likely To Vote Obama Than GOP Candidate...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 21, 2011 15 Comments

The polls have tended to show that Democrats in Wisconsin are in a much stronger position than last fall as a result of the budget repair bill controversy.I've wondered whether voters minds really could have changed that quickly, and whether union intimidation tactics really have worked. ...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 17, 2011 1 Comment

Reader Dan in Hawaii, who followed the Polling 101 series, sent this clip, which I enjoyed very much:--------------------------------------------Follow me on Twitter, Facebook, and YouTubeVisit the Legal Insurrection Shop on CafePress!...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 16, 2011 12 Comments

GUEST POST by Matthew Knee:Professor Jacobson asked me to comment on the DKos/PPP poll regarding big labor's recall efforts in Wisconsin. The questions are mostly fine, but I have a few thoughts on the results that might be helpful.Wisconsin recalls do not work like the...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 14, 2011 4 Comments

Here is a recap of the Polling 101 series of Guest Posts by Matthew Knee, which ran last week:How People Answer PollsSamples & Margin of ErrorHandling BiasEvaluating The Public Employee Union PollsYou Can't Learn Much From Asking People Their IdeologyThe series was a real eye-opener...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 10, 2011 0 Comments

This is the fourth in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.___________________Today I will provide an overview of the polling situation...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 09, 2011 3 Comments

This is the third in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.___________________Handling BiasToday I will discuss ways to handle bias...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 08, 2011 3 Comments

This is the second in a series of GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.___________________Samples & Margin of Error1. Sampling Error Will Always Be There...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 07, 2011 9 Comments

This is the first in a series GUEST POSTS by Matthew Knee, a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University specializing in campaigns and elections, ethnic voting patterns, public opinion, and quantitative and experimental approaches to political science.____________________Analyzing polls with only what polling companies release is a tricky...

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 04, 2011 10 Comments

As my readers know, I have taken an interest in polling, primarily because it seems so many polls are agenda driven.  In a post last week, I pointed to a PPP poll on Wisconsin which used sample data which underweighted Walker voters from 2010 and...

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