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A glimmer of a glimmer

A glimmer of a glimmer

Via Political Wire, the most recent polls:

A Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows Mitt Romney has a 14 point lead over Newt Gingrich, 43% to 29%, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum both at 11%. Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s primary election.

A SurveyUSA poll shows Romney tops Gingrich by 15 points, 41% to 26%, with Santorum and Paul at 12% each.

A We Ask America poll shows Romney crushing Gingrich, 50% to 28%, with Santorum at 12% and Paul at 11%.

A Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney leads Gingrich by seven points, 39% to 32%, with Santorum at 14% and Paul at 11%.

A InsiderAdvantage poll claims the race is down to just five points with Romney leading Gingrich, 36% to 31%, followed by Santorum and Paul each at 12%.

Note that the PPP and Insider Advantage polls for yesterday show only mid-to-high single digit leads, with IA showing a substantial drop in Romney’s lead since its poll last week.

Does this reflect a backlash against the Romney tactics?  We’ll find out tomorrow.

And remember the expectations game.  At this point, will anything less than a double-digit Romney win breath life into the Newt campaign?

(added) In 2008, Romney received 31% of the vote in Florida, McCain 36%, Rudy 14.7, Huck 13.5, Paul 3.2.

Update: The most important poll of all? (conservative bloggers)

1) If you had to pick the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee today, which of the following candidates would you select?

4) Ron Paul: 11.6% (8 votes)

3) Rick Santorum: 21.7% (15 votes)

2) Mitt Romney: 31.9% (22 votes)

1) Newt Gingrich: 34.8% (24 votes)

Of course, since the blogger poll does not include Drudge, or other high traffic blogs, it’s just a measure of rightness, not power.


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“At this point, will anything less than a double-digit Romney win breath life into the Newt campaign?”

I hope so. I’d like to see it go on for a while. Being in a late-state, primary season always annoys me. By the time the race comes to California, it’s almost always over, and my preferences are immaterial.

Whatever happens, I hope Newt continues after FL. And Santorum and Paul too; at this point the more people Romney has to contend with the better. If we go to convention with no clear winner I think that’s fine.

Newt isn’t my ideal candidate (she chose not to run) but I think he’s a very good candidate who can beat Obama. I just hope he can Romney.

StrangernFiction | January 30, 2012 at 10:35 am

The IA and PPP polls are the only polls showing on RCP that were taken entirely after Palin’s endorsement of Newt for Florida. Half or more of the Quinnipiac and Survey USA polling was likely done before her announcement. As of a few minutes ago at least, the WAA poll was not listed by RCP.

FWIW, Michelle Malkin has endorsed Rick Santorum:

Santorum needs to drop out and endorse Newt. He will not be president, but he could have a bright future in the Gingrich administration.

So Newt is going up and Romney is going down in the polls … and Michael Reagan is campaigning for Newt in FL -sounds like Newt rising!

Another interesting take on Florida

StrangernFiction | January 30, 2012 at 10:51 am

They will try with all their might to do so, but it will be hard — with all that’s transpired in the last few days — to sell the “it’s over let’s all fall in line” meme if Romney can only win Florida by low to mid single digits.

Bill McCollum on the Mike Gallagher Show just said that he thinks Newt could win FL

    RexGrossmanSpiral in reply to Say_What. | January 30, 2012 at 10:55 am

    Newt was able to get voter turnout to spike in Florida (rmemeber nobody thought he was going to win by so much)…maybe, just maybe he can pull it off.

    wodiej in reply to Say_What. | January 30, 2012 at 11:23 am

    I still don’t see how in the world Romney can win when Gingrich is pulling in thousands at his rallies. At the Villages yesterday, another 4000 which has been the norm. Romney, a few hundred. Either those people are just out there to get some sun or somebody is spinning this in Romney’s favor big time.

      logos in reply to wodiej. | January 30, 2012 at 12:05 pm

      And Romney drew a big crowd in Naples – where the big money is.

      It’s not over ’til the last vote is counted (or in the case of a General Election, the last box of ballots is found in a Dem election official’s trunk).

RexGrossmanSpiral | January 30, 2012 at 10:53 am

Santorum, please for the love of Jehovah, end your campaign and take care of your children.

    StrangernFiction in reply to RexGrossmanSpiral. | January 30, 2012 at 11:11 am

    I’m undecided on whether I think Santorum should leave now, but it won’t go unnoticed if Newt and Rick combine to beat Romney. Especially if they can best him by five points or more.

RexGrossmanSpiral | January 30, 2012 at 10:53 am

That sounds very much like what the “enlightened2 ones were telling Sarah Palin. If you are going to ask him to do so, do it based on his numbers… nothing more. He is trailing and outside of a small core constituency of voters he will not be able to pick up many undecideds. The same goes for Ron Paul. Meanwhile, I agree with others who have said that the more candidates there are the harder it will be of Romney. That and getting Gingrich to surge should be our goal. I do not want Obama Lite.

that poll was interesting. Romney was voted most electable but the very least conservative. People need to quit buying into this hogwash that Romney is the most electable. A candidate can be the most electable if people get behind them!

    CalMark in reply to JEBurke. | January 30, 2012 at 11:43 am

    McCain was “the most electable” in 2008. By far. How’d that work out?

    Anyway, these polls are rigged. Gallup is an Establishment left-leaning organization.

    I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: I think the polls are rigged. SC was supposed to be a toss-up, at best low single digits for Gingrich. Newt won by 12.

    With the pro-Newt energy, the anti-Romney animus, and the rigged media and polls, I don’t believe anything.

    I’ll not despair yet. Let’s wait for the votes to be counted.

    P.S. Romney has somehow bought off Santorum. You read it here first. Santorum should know he can’t win, and his reason for staying (“an angry candidate”–Newt–“is not the right answer”) stinks of rationalization. All you Rickey S. fans, your man is either an egomaniac or has been bought. Remember, Mr. Holy-Holy Pro-Life/Family Conservative shocked everyone in ’04 by endorsing Abortion-Guy/Leftist Specter, who later became a Democrat. So don’t be surprised if Holy-Holy Ricky gives Romney the Kiss of Peace when he retires from the field.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to CalMark. | January 30, 2012 at 11:56 am

      Polls are valued only because they give journalists and campaign staffs something to grasp before the actual voting.

      If you’re a Giants fan, you love to see someone pick Giants by 7 over the Patriots. You cite the pick when debating Patriot fans. But they have to play the game to determine a winner.

    Sure looks like you trolls over in Romney Central are in full panic mode.
    I reside in Florida and the voting public here holds Romney in utter contempt after the scorched earth politics of personal destruction co-ordinated effort we have witnessed this past week from the Republican machine, led by the so called conservative media. It is now out in the open for all the world to see the disdain the establishment of our own party holds for us conservatives.
    In other words, your machinations have backfired BIGTIME. Many of us did not have a dog in this race before but we now know that we despise Romney. He has the same morals, values, and ethics as Obama, none. And the Republican base has just as much in common with Romney as we have with Obama, nothing.
    The pure unadulterated truth is that Romney can’t close the deal in Florida now. And you guys are in full panic mode.

    Nice to se ya sweatin’.

Point of order on polls:

Whenever you read a poll that says this or that GOP candidate is more likely to beat Obama in November, it is a snapshot in time on the day or days over which the poll is taken. In the case of GOP candidates against Obama, the GOP candidates are still running against each other and haven’t even begun to run against Obama. A poll cannot forecast how well a particular candidate will run against Obama – nor can the people who were polled. Their minds can and will be changed during the general. How much and in which direction will be decided on who runs the better campaign. Polls taken today do not and cannot measure what really counts.

Consider Romney – His only advantage against Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul is money. They all have more and better experience in office, and they are all much more conservative than Romney. But, Romney had the money early on and straight through, thus all the carpet bombing of TV ads. In the general Obama will have much more money and incumbency – Romney’s only advantage gone before he begins. Obamacare? Romney is neutered on Obamacare because of Romneycare. He hasn’t the will, he hasn’t the fight in him beyond TV ad money and will be outspent on that, and he hasn’t the core – he’s a patchwork quilt of focus group tested positions. His business experience is matched or bettered by a million other businessmen and women in America and does not qualify him for high office in itself. His business success is not outstanding, in fact, it is rather pedestrian among the corporate set. His record as governor, just like Obama’s in the White House, has to be ignored or ridiculously spun. Romney will fold like a cheap tent under the Obama/lib media onslaught. By August he’ll be down 60/40.

Money may decide the primaries, but will not decide the general – policies will. Gingrich or Santorum defeat Obama. Romney loses to Obama 52/48. Bank on it.

    “Money may decide the primaries, but will not decide the general – policies will. Gingrich or Santorum defeat Obama. Romney loses to Obama 52/48. Bank on it.”

    HH: you see the forest despite the trees.

    Your observation is brilliant.

      Henry Hawkins in reply to logos. | January 30, 2012 at 12:50 pm

      Thank you very much. I’m afraid I stepped on the professor’s next article though, which says the same thing.

      Polls and polling firms get scored and some do better than others on accuracy. Unfortunately, accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. All we know for sure about polling is that many are accurate and many are not. No polling firm is 100% accurate or anything near it. So, when I see a poll, or a collection of polls that seem to say the same thing, all I know for sure is that it/they are accurate or they are not. In other words, I’ve learned nothing.

“Just 7% are undecided, but 24% say they might change their mind by tomorrow’s primary election.”

I think many respondents lie to pollsters. I heard my own mother tell a telephone pollster that she couldn’t remember who she voted for in the 2008 Presidential election.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to logos. | January 30, 2012 at 12:52 pm

    I live for the moment I get called by a pollster, especially if it becomes clear they are liberal or Democrat. Heh, heh, heh.

      Me, too! I’ve never been favored with a tele-pollster call.

        Henry Hawkins in reply to logos. | January 30, 2012 at 2:39 pm

        Telemarketers, too. I buy ten of everything they’re selling – then give them bad order information. Or sometimes I’ll admit, “Heck yes, I’m interested! could you hold on a minute while I let the dog out?” Then I lay the phone on the counter or desk and go about my day. Sometimes i have a heart attack mid call. My favorite is listen to their whole spiel and then try to sell them an imaginary used car in my driveway, daring them to complain about me trying to sell them something they don’t need or want.

Louis R. Lombardi | January 30, 2012 at 1:58 pm

1980. Ronald Reagan lost three of the first four events – Iowa, Puerto Rico and Massachusetts. He only won New Hamspshire. Florida will not be the death knell for anyone.There is a whole lot of game left.

AP just came out with an article that regardless what happens in Florida, the race goes on. Duh.

Could it be the Mittens isn’t nearly the shoo-in everyone’s been saying?

I say again: the polls are rigged. Last week, they flipped 20 points overnight. Now they’re “tightening.” Are pollsters walking it back just enough to retain future credibility? If they’re that wrong this time, we should stop listening to them.

Remember (I keep repeating this): The polls said SC was “toss up” or very shaky low single digits for Newt.