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What it is ain’t exactly clear

What it is ain’t exactly clear

In keeping with the video of the day, the polling isn’t exactly clear on what is happening here.

On the one hand, numerous polls show Romney moving to a mid-to-high single digit lead in Florida, but Gallup and most other national polls show no upward movement for Romney nationally:

How is it that Romney would be “surging” in Florida but nowhere else?  (added)  Perhaps it’s that Romney is outspending Newt more than 3-1 in Florida, but that has been going on for a long time so it would be hard to attribute a sudden movement to the spending.

Also, a Dixie Strategies poll, with by far the largest sample size in Florida and which includes two days of polling after the Monday debate, shows a virtual tie:

In the three days leading up to Thursday’s debate at the University of North Florida, First Coast News and St. Augustine-based Dixie Strategies commissioned the Dixie Strategies/First Coast News Public Opinion Survey, a poll of Republicans throughout the state who described themselves as “likely” voters in the Jan. 31 primary.

When asked, “If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today, for whom would you vote?,” 35.46 percent of the 2,567 likely voters polled selected former House speaker Gingrich, and 35.08 percent selected Romney.

The same question showed former senator Rick Santorum in a distant third place with 9.38 percent, followed by Ron Paul’s 7.42 percent.

I could see justifications for changes post Thursday debate, but it’s not clear who it helps.  It was not a good debate for Newt, but Romney got hurt by Santorum as well.

The media momentum until yesterday was on Romney’s side based on the false and misleading attacks on Newt’s Reagan bona fides.

But yesterday there was a talk radio backlash and Sarah Palin’s strategic intervention may even things out.  Newt also picked up the backing of the Tea Party movement in Florida, while Romney pretty much has written them off.

Turn out and enthusiasm could be the difference.

So stop, children, no one really knows what or who is going down on Tuesday.

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Comments

Ive been looking as well. Newt got a bump here yesterday with the newest poll. Whats even more interesting…(see detail here)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

Is what his lead would be without the one older poll.
The only thing I can imagine..is perhaps the SC bump Newt got is slower to show itself in national polling. But its curious..I was surprised to see Newt actual get bumped up about a point yesterday….while the anti Newt campaign was in full force.

Wait til the dookie hits the blower over the comments of Pam Bondi, Mitt Myrmidon, regarding RomneyCare.

Just wait…!!!

Interesting note on the FL polling, Newt had one 40% result, but mostly his numbers have slipped only 2-3 points while romney gained enough to make the difference and then some.

The numbers don’t point to any kind of Newt Collapse – Somehow mittens is making progress. Should be interesting Tuesday, I’m hoping for a Newt upset victory!

I tell you what is becoming clear. Romney will not suddenly morph into a conservative Jan 20th, 2013 (should be lucky enough to win the election):

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/01/were-screwed-florida-ag-pam-bondi-claims-mitt-wants-romneycare-in-every-state-video/

While not entirely clear, the Newtzilla has taken a lickin’ and keeps on ticking. Good. Yes, I voted Newt.

Now, I just have to go make sure my vote is counted … Broward County, after all. aka Debbie What’s-her-name Shultz County.

thanks for a rundown on Florida polling. Much appreciated.

new Gingrich ad…this one’s gonna leave a mark.

Blood money

http://markamerica.com/2012/01/28/so-shocking-im-speechless/

    JDmyrm in reply to wodiej. | January 28, 2012 at 1:25 pm

    That was incredible… It’s like how Obama has too many communists in his administration to be coincidence… frequency of information, Romney is involved in too many of these things to pass off as mere coincidence.

    I cannot support this man.

    StrangernFiction in reply to wodiej. | January 28, 2012 at 4:29 pm

    About that work in the private sector Mitt.

    Wow!

    Midwest Rhino in reply to wodiej. | January 28, 2012 at 6:16 pm

    Brazen fraud that steals from taxpayers to enrich Romney … then he sells right before the investigation comes out. Then he lies and said he was part of uncovering it. Then he lies and said he had no dealings with government.

    WOW.

    But let’s not voice an opinion on this, or Krauthammer will say we hate capitalism. Nothing wrong with buying and selling companies. It’s all good. Good grief.

Snorkdoodle Whizbang | January 28, 2012 at 1:06 pm

Hmmmm…. “the poll asked the voters who their next choice would be if not their preferred candidate.

Gingrich supporters, who show a 96 percent positive view of Gingrich, picked Santorum next by a large margin, with “undecided” as the third choice.

Romney supporters, 95.67 percent positive for Romney, prefer Paul next, who scored slightly higher than Gingrich.”

Seriously? Romney supporters choosing Paul as a second choice??? Something smells a bit fishy…

    The reason Romney voters would prefer to vote for Paul and vice versa over Gingrich or Santorum is because both of them are pulling Libertarian Party members who can’t vote for Johnson yet as well as Democrats who have registered in the GOP to defeat anyone but Romney (Obama supporters) or Paul (libertarians and/or 9/11 truthers)

sickoftalking | January 28, 2012 at 1:10 pm

The same thing happened in Iowa. Even as Newt’s polling numbers went down, he still was ahead nationally. He only started dropping *after* Iowa, when Santorum started picking up momentum.

What’s leading the drop in Florida polls is negative ads, same as in Iowa. If the first debate affected Newt negatively, it would have already shown up in national polls. If the second debate did, it will show up in polls today.

Even more interesting in the new Gallup results

TRIAL HEATCHANGE Obama50%+3 Romney48%+2
TRIAL HEATCHANGE Obama50%- Gingrich48%+4

    RexGrossmanSpiral in reply to jimzinsocal. | January 28, 2012 at 1:20 pm

    When the national focused is trained on Newt (who does a lot of media interviews – unlike Romney) people will like him and feel comfortable that this guy knows what he’s doing.
    I’m surprised I haven’t seen pundits remark how Newt crushes Romney in polling questions regarding foreign policy.

Henry Hawkins | January 28, 2012 at 1:13 pm

The screwy poll results might reflect a brief Romney surge in retreat due to the backlash against the Drudge, et al, Newt dumps.

RexGrossmanSpiral | January 28, 2012 at 1:17 pm

Agree w\ entire post.

Heavy TV adverti$ing. $emi-$enile garden club gala $et a-flutter. And year$ of Fla. campaigning, plying politician$ with money and promi$e$.

    janitor in reply to janitor. | January 28, 2012 at 1:31 pm

    (Many absentee ballots already cast, too. I hope that younger folks who do not always vote in primaries come in force, and not just Santorum’s people.)

Windy City Commentary | January 28, 2012 at 1:30 pm

Well, Real Clear Politics doesn’t include this Dixie poll. What I don’t understand is how Newt surged on Monday in the RCP average in Florida, and then Romney surged the rest of the week. And what happened to cause such a surge? Romney had 2 decent debates (even though he said Obamacare was “nothing to get angry about”)? Drudge and National Review fabricated Newt’s opinions of Reagan? Romney spent millions on ads in Florida?

FWIW – Four years ago before every primary we saw a bunch of polls favoring Obama over Hillary. Obama supporters would tout them as proof that Obama was unbeatable.

Hillary consistently outperformed the polls.

For example, several polls showed Obama closing the gap with Hillary or leading in California just before Super Duper Tuesday. Hillary won California by over 8 pts.

BTW – SUSA was the gold standard for accuracy back then.

    Mutnodjmet in reply to myiq2xu. | January 28, 2012 at 2:27 pm

    A good reminder as to why polls should most often be considered as tools of the elite media to support the media meme it wants to publicize.

It would be interesting to see what polling data in Virginia looks like but I don’t suppose anyone is polling a Romney/Paul line up here. But I am definitely voting for Paul in the primary here. Not like I have any choice thanks to the incompetence of Gingrich and Santorum campaigns here.

Romney just doesn’t seem to draw above a certain threshold. How is he going to win a general election if only 35% of Republicans will vote for him?

Romney surely isn’t going to outspend Obama 3 to 1 in a national election…

I think the Florida numbers have to do with the Pam Bondi who probably has a high profile suing federal government over Obamacare and then lending her voice to contrasting RomneyCare (States Rights….hilarious!)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SF2YB4pGrjk&feature=player_embedded

However, my ah ha moment occurred after watching this vid as I have been befuddled about my rep Cathy McMorris Rodgers coming out in support of Romney. Maybe Pam Bondi is describing the “replacement” that I’ve heard rumblings about

http://www.legalnewsline.com/news/235031-report-gop-preparing-bill-to-replace-obamacare

…and the powers that be are going to try and peddle it via “States Rights!!! States Rights!!!” Go Team!

Too bad there is the internet history, and it seems that Romney credited Tom Stemburg (Staples guy, presidential council of Mass General and personal friend, yada-yada-yada) with the idea.

http://articles.boston.com/2011-05-30/lifestyle/29600244_1_health-care-mitt-romney-individual-mandate

http://nymag.com/news/politics/mitt-romney-2011-10/index6.html

Time to go visit Rep McMorris-Rodgers Spokane office, stat.

I’m so tired of watching repubs beating up on each other more than they do on Barry Soetero.

I don’t care who’s the repub nominee, just defeat that idiot in the WH, I don’t want another 4 years of hearing what a racist I am.

ABO.

holmes tuttle | January 28, 2012 at 2:22 pm

I did some basic math and even if he wins FL due to the delegate allocation, Romney won’t get to 1144 until the very end of this, if he even does.

Newt can still stay in and challenge him all the way to the end, and make it pretty close in terms of delegates.

And who knows what can happen to change things overt he next 45 months, what new developments

Now, the same goes for Romney. Even if Newt wins FL, he’ll still have a very long slog to get the 1144 delegates and Romney can stay in and him and the establishment will attack Newt every step of the way, and likely even moreso than they already have.

But FL does not have to be the end of this by any means.

    Snorkdoodle Whizbang in reply to holmes tuttle. | January 28, 2012 at 4:59 pm

    Agreed. If Romney takes FL, expect the ‘Inevitable’ meme to be trumpeted again in force.

    A long primary favors Gingrich, I think. Even though Romney has a money edge, he also has a thin record… the longer the primary contest, the greater risk to the Romney campaign that their ‘Inevitable’ and ‘Electability’ strategy will evaporate and they won’t have a record of accomplishments to fall back on. The longer Gingrich stays in and stays competitive, the weaker the Romney narratives become.

I am a Tea Party Coordinator for a large group in Southern California. I can tell you from personal experience that most independent Tea Party groups are loathe to endorse a specific candidate — especially at the national level and especially with a such flawed candidate. However, the awful tactics implemented against Gingrich by the elite in the establishment GOP has generated exactly the kind of backlash that I thought it would. The elites in the Republican party have undermined Romney among grassroots citizen activists. Add this to the fact that the Florida Attorney General said Romney will be bringing Romneycare to all 50 states, I can’t see how a tea party participant can do anything else but vote for Gingrich at this point.

Link on Romneycare: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/01/were-screwed-florida-ag-pam-bondi-claims-mitt-wants-romneycare-in-every-state-video/

    Henry Hawkins in reply to Mutnodjmet. | January 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm

    I’m co-chair of a tri-county TP group in NC and we don’t endorse specific candidates either – unless they profess the policies and intentions we want rot from th’ gitgo*.

    *’beginning’ for my Yankee associates.

The polls may not be clear, but the current betting odds imply that Romney has Florida locked up (95%). Potentially significant money awaits someone who believes the state remains in play. Romney doesn’t even have to lose: just bet against him at Intrade or IEM and cash out when/if the odds shift.

“We haven’t had time to do a real analysis of the Romney race in South Carolina, but once we break that down, there was some element of anti-Mormonism in that vote,” McCain asserted. “I’m not saying all of it, but there were elements there. There was nothing that Mitt Romney could have done.”

Excuse me while I puke.

    Henry Hawkins in reply to Neo. | January 28, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    I know. Something, isn’t he?

    I wish Romney no ill will other than politically, but what if he wins the nomination and then dies in a plane wreck or from a heart attack? We’ll have to run Bob Dole again because the GOP has sabotaged every potential Romney challenger.

    raven in reply to Neo. | January 28, 2012 at 6:29 pm

    According to that quote, he confesses to premeditated bigotry against the voters of SC. He hasn’t done an analysis, but he’s made a defamatory conclusion. What an idiot.

I read this response on a Newt hit piece on American Thinker & agree with its premise:

“Yawn…another Newt hit piece. What is interesting is watching sites like AT, NRO, Hot Air, Human Events, Lucianne, Drudge melt down and ruin their credibility and futures over getting down in the weeds. Newt will have a future with or without the presidency…but will they?”

The over abundant attacks on Newt have been so overwhelming for voters all the negative lies I believe are ignored by them – like the boy crying wolf – this time the voters will take the establishment & their surrogates cries and deliver them a plate full of Rino carcass.

Windy City Commentary | January 28, 2012 at 4:15 pm

Here we go again. From Drudge: BROKAW, NBCNEWS DEMAND ROMNEY WITHDRAW CLOSING FL AD, WHICH SCORCHES NEWT…

Notice the main story here is that NBC demands Romney withdraw the ad, but Drudge is sure to mention that the ad “scorches Newt”. It sounds as if Drudge is trying to make it look like NBC is protecting Newt. Wrong; they are protecting Tom Brokaw.

Henry Hawkins | January 28, 2012 at 4:15 pm

Mmmmmmmmmm… rino.

It is to be expected that the national polls would lag because people nationally are not paying as much attention as people in Florida — or seeing all the ads and the candidates on their local news programs every day.

But there is another factor as well. Gallup’s national tracking poll surveys registered voters, not likely voters, while all the Florida polls are of likely voters in next Tuesday’s primary.

In any case, Newt is trending down nationally. Assuming Romney wins Tuesday, you can expect the momentum factor to kick in nationally in Romney’s favor.

    Snorkdoodle Whizbang in reply to JEBurke. | January 28, 2012 at 5:02 pm

    Perhaps, but for how long? This is the most fluid primary race I’ve seen in a long, long time. Seems like momentum has been switching on a dime from week to week.

McLame said SC voted for Newt because of anti-Mormonism. Shouldn’t the Left file suit for trademark infringement? That’s their proprietary method — attribute defeats to despicable motives: “If you didn’t vote for our guy, it must be because you are a racist/bigot/homophobe/heartless.”

Obama to McCain: “You have learned well, my disciple.”

[…] Florida Tea Party Groups Endorse Newt Gingrich. Legal Insurrection has been following the Florida primary carefully, and notes with increasing disdain the coordinated attacks on Gingrich from the establishment […]

WE CITIZENS HAVE A MIGHTY STING. I think the elite GOP have no idea what kind of pain they are going to be in, especially starting next Tuesday.

Midwest Rhino | January 28, 2012 at 5:46 pm

video of the day … without the hiss

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5M_Ttstbgs

Mason Dixon is not the most reliable polling operation though I am always suspicious of “mainstream” polling firms surveying conservative Republicans as most folks in the Washington/New York political corridor treat conservatives like the Yeti, you might see flashes of them, they look hairy, dirty and dangerous if approached and they are such a small subsection they are irrelevant in politics.

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