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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Tuesday, a New York judge decided the 'Trump University' case will go to trial. No trial date has been set (Fox News reports tentative trial date would be sometime this fall), but New York's Attorney General indicated he expects Republican presidential frontrunner, Donald Trump to testify as a witness.

What do you call a presidential candidate who invents a phony talking point portraying himself as a victim, when he in fact is the perpetrator? Bill Clinton? Yes, but let's not get nostalgic. Mr. Donald J. Trump? Yes, bingo. Trump and his merry band of Trumpmedia have relentlessly pushed the narrative that Trump is the victim of a rigged delegate selection system. When Ted Cruz gets more delegates than his share of vote, it's called "stealing" and "cheating" and more evidence of "Lyin' Ted." Being the victim of a rigged system is essential to the popularity of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. And Mr. Donald J. Trump. But it's completely false. As we have demonstrated before, Trump is the single biggest beneficiary of the delegate allocation so far, winning a much higher number of delegates per vote than Cruz.

I once commented that I can't stand the sound of John Kasich's voice. It's not that it is grating on the nerves, like Hillary's screeching chalkboard-scraping cackle. It's just that he reminds me and a lot of people of the relative at the dinner table who JUST WON'T STOP TALKING. And who doesn't pick up on social cues, like people looking sideways at each other out of the corners of their eyes; gently trying to change the subject; excusing themselves because it's getting late and they have to get up early for something or another. When I hear him speak, I get flashbacks of childhood when an elderly relative-in-law would corral me into sitting with him for the post-meal Passover seder service. For most non-orthodox Jews, the seder meal means we're done. But no, he'd put me on the spot because no one else would stay, and there we'd be for what seemed like eternity. John Kasich could be that guy.

Donald Trump has a "favorability" problem. Poll after poll shows Trump doing poorly against Hillary Clinton head-to-head, perhaps reflecting Trump's historically low levels of favorability (and high levels of unfavorability) for a leading major party candidate. In response, a meme was created and spread far and wide earlier this month that Trump's favorability is no worse than Ronald Reagan at a similar point in time in his challege to Jimmy Carter. The conclusion being that if Reagan could overcome that obstacle, so can Trump. So, the theory goes, those of you Republican national convention delegates who worry about Trump being a general election disaster who could cost Republicans the presidency, House and Senate have nothing to worry about. A post by Gallup (discussed below) explains why that is not accurate, and why Trump's favorability is much worse than Reagan's. But equally important is to examine how it came about that Gallup even is discussing the issue.

The anti-Cruz hype is that nobody likes him, everybody hates him, he has no friends. The anti-Republican hype is that they're racist bigots. Here's a story that could kill (or at least slightly injure) those two birds with one stone: the tale of Ted Cruz's best friend in college, law school, and beyond, David Panton.

I fully appreciate that support for Trump has become a cult of personality. Nothing can sway those who refuse to see that Trump is conning them. He doesn't respect you. He doesn't like you. He is manipulating you to get what he wants. It's all a show. And his new convention manager (and de facto campaign manager) Paul Manafort just admitted to the con in a closed door meeting with the RNC. The Associated Press obtained a recording, and reports, Trump team tells GOP he has been 'projecting an image' (emphasis added):
Trump's newly hired senior aide, Paul Manafort, made the case to Republican National Committee members that Trump has two personalities: one in private and one onstage. "When he's out on the stage, when he's talking about the kinds of things he's talking about on the stump, he's projecting an image that's for that purpose," Manafort said in a private briefing. "You'll start to see more depth of the person, the real person. You'll see a real different guy," he said.

In a radio interview with Senator Ted Cruz Tuesday, host Sean Hannity lost his cool. Hannity contended Republicans were most concerned about the current delegate count, to which Cruz disagreed. "Sean, with all respect -- that's not what people are concerned about. I'm campaigning everyday. People are concerned about bringing jobs back to America, people are concerned about raising wages, people are concerned about getting the federal government off the backs of small businesses and people are concerned about beating Hillary. The media loves to obsess about process and this process and this whining from the Trump campaign is all silly. It's very simple," said before Hannity interrupted. Hannity cited his Twitter account, radio and TV shows as evidence that he knows best what Republicans are concerned about and again asked Cruz to explain the delegate game.

Updates (by WAJ). No surprise, the second the polls closed Trump was projected the winner. What remains to be seen is how many delegates he gets. (added) As of 11:30 p.m., Trump has approximately 60% of the vote and is credited with 89 delegates, but that likely will go up a couple more as more final results come in. Kasich has 3, and Cruz none. So Trump did what he needed to do. But he's still on a trajectory to fall short of 1237 on the first ballot. A number of commenters on TV and Twitter also are pointing out the obvious -- the Republican electorate in NY State is small relative to Democrats, so there remains no reason to believe Trump could carry the state in a general election. Hillary v. Bernie currently not called, but "leaning" Hillary. Networks call it for Hillary. https://twitter.com/LegInsurrection/status/722600349379522561

On the campaign trail in Buffalo, New York Monday night, Donald Trump mistakenly referred to the convenience store 7-Eleven in place of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. From the AP wire:
Donald Trump made an unfortunate slip-of-the-tongue while campaigning in Buffalo, New York, on Monday evening at his final rally before Tuesday's big-prize primary. Trump was about to deliver prepared remarks lauding New York values when he mistakenly mentioned the name of a popular convenience store chain in place of 9/11.

Donald Trump is hovering near a delegate trajectory that will gain him a majority of delegates on the first ballot, even though he will not come anywhere near a majority of votes cast in various primaries and caucuses (including caucuses that selected delegates to state conventions). In other words, using the characterization of the delegate selection process which Trump and Trumpmedia claim is rigged and amounts to "stealing" the election when it benefits Cruz relative to vote percentage, Trump would be the biggest thief of the campaign season. (By the way, the claim that state conventions are "voterless" is a lie.) This NBC News analysis as of April 11, 2016, demonstrates how the supposedly "rigged" system has helped Trump:

It's not often that a Republican presidential primary in New York matters. This year it does. It's a time for choosing, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan. The choice is between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, though John Kasich is on the ballot too. The real race to the nomination has been Trump v. Cruz for at least several weeks and it is likely to remain that way. Faced with that choice, it's easy. Legal Insurrection started in October 2008 in anticipation of the Obama presidency. We were part of the Tea Party movement (though aligned with no specific group) since the beginning. We worked hard through Operation Counterweight and campaign coverage to find and elect candidates who would push the window towards conservatism. Sometimes we were disappointed once they took office, but the window opened wider.

Ted Cruz racked up another big delegate win, this time in Wyoming. CNN reports:
Cruz won 14 of 14 Republican National Convention delegates up for grabs at the Wyoming state convention here Saturday. The crowd here was clearly in Cruz's corner, as the Texas senator was the only candidate to make the trip to Casper -- ahead of a major snowstorm -- and Sarah Palin, scheduled to speak for Trump, previously canceled.

It was going to be yuge. There was going to be a march on the Colorado State Capitol the likes of which had not been seen before, reflecting seething anger among voters over Ted Cruz "stealing" Colorado in a "voterless" process. It was pure media manipulation based on a lie spread by Trump and his campaign about how the Colorado process worked. And it was aided and abetted by Trumpmedia, that hyperbolic group of formerly conservative websites and media personalities who are riding the Trump horse. Turns out the massive rally didn't get thousands, not even hundreds. A few dozen showed up.

This video really serves as a metaphor for the campaign so far. Michael Cohen, Trump's legal and campaign adviser, is demanding that Republicans unite around "Mr. Trump." Of course, it is revealed near the end of the clip below, after a lengthy harangue of the RNC and Reince Priebus by Cohen, that Cohen is a Democrat and can't even vote for "Mr. Trump." Much like some of "Mr. Trump's" own family members who campaign for him, who also are Democrats.

As Professor Jacobson blogged yesterday, reports suggested the Florida prosecutor would not be filing charges against Donald Trump's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, for the alleged assault of former Breitbart News reporter, Michelle Fields. The backstory on that dramatic saga here.

Back to the Corey Lewandowski saga and his grab of Michelle Fields. Politico reports that the local prosecutor will not pursue the case despite a finding of probable cause by the police:
A Florida prosecutor has decided not to prosecute Donald Trump’s campaign manager for battery after a March run-in with former Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields, sources with knowledge of the situation told POLITICO. The decision not to press charges against Corey Lewandowski is scheduled to be announced on Thursday afternoon by Palm Beach County State Attorney David Aronberg....