Donald Trump is hovering near a delegate trajectory that will gain him a majority of delegates on the first ballot, even though he will not come anywhere near a majority of votes cast in various primaries and caucuses (including caucuses that selected delegates to state conventions).

In other words, using the characterization of the delegate selection process which Trump and Trumpmedia claim is rigged and amounts to “stealing” the election when it benefits Cruz relative to vote percentage, Trump would be the biggest thief of the campaign season. (By the way, the claim that state conventions are “voterless” is a lie.)

This NBC News analysis as of April 11, 2016, demonstrates how the supposedly “rigged” system has helped Trump:

Donald Trump blasted the GOP’s delegate rules Sunday, saying a “corrupt” system is denying him delegates in states he won. According to a new NBC analysis, however, Trump has benefited far more than Ted Cruz under the party’s arcane rules for allocating delegates.

Trump now leads the Republican field with 756 delegates — or 45 percent of all delegates awarded to date. Yet he has won about 37 percent of all votes in the primaries, according to the NBC analysis, meaning Trump’s delegate support is greater than his actual support from voters.

For each percentage point of total primary votes that Trump has won, he has been awarded 1.22 percent of the total delegates.

In other words, as a matter of Republican Party math, Trump has been awarded a delegate bonus of 22 percent above his raw support from voters.

By contrast, Cruz has been awarded about 1.14 percent of the delegates for each percentage point of votes he has won — a delegate bonus of 14 percent above his raw support.

(Cruz’s 545 delegates comprise 32 percent of all delegates awarded to date, while he has won about 28 percent of all votes in the primaries, according to the NBC analysis.)

Taken together, the data show Trump has been awarded 8 percent more delegates than Cruz for the same rate of voter support.

It is Trump, however, who is leading the charge against how delegates are awarded.

“We’ve got a corrupt system. It’s not right,” Trump said at a Sunday rally in Rochester, New York. “We’re supposed to be a democracy.”

Today’s New York primary delegate system could go a long way in aiding Trump’s “theft” of the nomination.

Polling averages put Trump at 53% statewide. If the voting reflects that polling, Trump proportionally would get 50 or 51 of New York’s 95 delegates. Anything beyond that, by Trump and Trumpmedia’s characterization, is theft.

It is likely that Trump will do better in delegates than his New York vote percentage.

If Trump gets 50% plus one vote, he takes the statewide 14 delegates, which would mean he’s “stealing” 6-7 delegates he would not get under a strictly proportional system.

On top of that there are 81 delegates awarded by congressional district. If Trump gets a majority in any of the congressional districts, he takes all three district delegates; if Trump has a plurality (likely in almost all districts), he gets two out of the three.  Thus, it is likely that Trump will pick up dozens of extra delegates at the district level beyond his vote percentage.

So when analyzing the result tonight, and the impact of Trump’s almost certain big win, consider by how much Trump’s delegate haul exceeds his vote percentage.

Then scream at the top of your lungs:


UPDATE 4-20-2016


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