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Ted Cruz Tag

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 09, 2016 51 Comments
Last night is being hyped as a Yuuuge comeback for Trump. Actually, not much changed other than the media narrative:
Last night's primary and caucus results changed the momentum in both presidential races. But they didn't significantly alter the overall math and trajectory of the two contests. Let's start with the Republican race. Donald Trump headed into last night losing some steam after Ted Cruz's gains over the weekend. And what did Trump do? He won the Michigan and Mississippi primaries by double digits over Cruz, and he even triumphed in Hawaii's caucuses. (Trump's one loss came in Idaho, where Cruz beat him, 45%-28%.) Still, the results don't truly change the overall math for Trump: He still needs to win Florida and/or Ohio to be on a stronger path to the 1,237 delegates needed to capture the GOP nomination. The good news for him: His top competition in Florida (Marco Rubio) and Ohio (John Kasich) certainly don't have the political winds at their backs. Here's the GOP delegate math: Trump currently has a 93-delegate lead over Cruz

Posted by William A. Jacobson on March 08, 2016 103 Comments
Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

Idaho · 32 delegates

Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

Posted by Jonathan Levin on March 08, 2016 42 Comments
The Rules Of The Republican Party deal with the organization and operation of the Republican Party, including everything from apportioning delegates to the national convention, to how to change the rules themselves. What if I told you that the RNC had a rule that under some circumstances could result in no candidate's name being placed in nomination so that the Republicans had no nominee; or create a convention deadlock because the only candidate whose name could be placed in nomination could not be nominated because he didn't have a majority of delegates as is required under another rule; or in another scenario only one candidate who didn't even have a majority of delegates would claim the nomination over the objection of the majority of delegates. If you didn't know the names of the candidates or which scenario played out, you'd say "that's absurd, change the rule." That latter scenario may very well play out, and hand Donald Trump the nomination (in the view of his supporters) even if he didn't have a majority of delegates, and even if most delegates didn't want him to be the nominee. It's all because of Rule 40(b).  Which is why if the RNC has any sense, it will change the rule as soon as possible to avoid an absurd and the undemocratic (small "d") result.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on March 04, 2016 50 Comments
Ted Cruz is an excellent public speaker, and today's CPAC speech was yet more evidence of this (and look, Obama, no teleprompter!). The crowd is clearly enthusiastic about Cruz, the raucous cheers almost drown out his introduction.  Of course he takes jabs at Trump for cancelling his scheduled CPAC appearance, saying that Trump must have heard that Megyn Kelly, conservatives, libertarians, or young people would be there.  The crowd went wild.  There were a few lone voices trying to chant "Trump, Trump, Trump," but they were quickly drowned out by the CPAC audience's booing. Cruz gives a wonderful speech about the principles that make America great in the first place, something he implies is not well-understood by Trump, and he talks about how to free the economy, secure our nation, and keep Americans free in the process:  jobs, security, and liberty were his themes.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on March 04, 2016 59 Comments
While Marco Rubio won his first state (Minnesota) and surged late in Virginia and Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska for a total of four state wins, Donald Trump did very well in the Super Tuesday primaries.  So well, in fact, that conservatives are beginning to search in earnest for a means to win the GOP nomination with a conservative candidate. One such idea is being touted as the "Unity" ticket of Cruz and Rubio (or Rubio and Cruz, though this seems less likely). Writing at The Resurgent, Erick Erickson argues for this in stark terms: "Unite or Die."
To truly beat Trump and keep his supporters from completely fleeing, Trump must be beaten in the primaries, not on the floor of the convention. And it is still mathematically possible, but it requires Cruz to win Florida, not Rubio. All of this talk by Rubio voters about later states, closed primaries, and favorability ignores voter psychology and, frankly, ignores the fact that Marco Rubio’s Gang of Eight position has poisoned the well too much for too many Republican voters. It will, in fact, go down as one of the worse political miscalculations in the last quarter century. All of this talk by Rubio voters ignores that Rubio and Cruz together can win Florida and Ohio, but divided cannot and only increase the odds of either a Trump nomination or the delegitimization of the process by which the GOP will pick its nominee.

Posted by New Neo on March 02, 2016 41 Comments
Even before yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries, it seemed that Cruz and Rubio were locked in a game of Chicken, and it promised to be a bumpy ride. The same holds true now:
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield. The name "chicken" has its origins in a game in which two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash, but if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a "chicken," meaning a coward.
Although there are five players now left in the GOP primary, one is dominant (Trump) and the two second-place candidates have been trading leads (Cruz and Rubio), with the other two (Kasich and Carson) very far behind. Back when the game featured far more players, the GOP race seemed a variation of the Tragedy of the Commons:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 29, 2016 98 Comments
Donald Trump launched his campaign popularity with a hard line on immigration, not limited to The Wall. It struck a chord with the electorate, as I noted in a guest column at National Review on July 13, 2015, Trump’s Lesson: Voters Are Furious about Illegal Immigration:
.... something happened on the way to the denunciations and purges [of Trump]. Kate Steinle was murdered in San Francisco, a sanctuary city. Steinle was killed in broad daylight on a popular pedestrian pier in a business and tourist district, by an illegal immigrant with a long criminal record who had been deported five times and recently was released from custody…. In the wake of the murder of Kate Steinle, many Republican candidates have denounced the sanctuary-cities agenda. There is talk of withholding funding from cities that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities. But who among the Republican candidates has stood side by side with the families who have lost loved ones to illegal-immigrant criminals? Trump did….”
Since then, immigration has continued to be the rocket fuel in Trump's campaign.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 25, 2016 101 Comments
The biggest take away from the CNN Republican Debate is that contrary to prior promises, Donald Trump says he will not release his income tax returns because he is being audited. There is no law, that I'm aware of, prohibiting such release. It sounded like a massive dodge, since IRS audits can go on for years. Trump even said his last 4-5 years of returns are being audited. Trump was his usual, petty self, gratuitously insulting Hugh Hewitt for supposedly having low ratings, even when Hewitt hadn't asked hostile question at the time, but reminded Trump of the prior promise to release the returns. I guess Trump supporters will see such conduct as "tough" and being a "fighter," but it was childish. Perhaps more important, Marco Rubio was the first person in any of the debates to successfully take on Trump on a range of issues.  Rubio mocked and belittled Trump in the humorous, mocking and highly effective manner that Trump used to make Jeb look small.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 21, 2016 81 Comments
About a month ago, when Donald Trump was claiming that Ted Cruz probably was not eligible to be president, Trump was questioned by Jake Tapper about whether Marco Rubio was eligible. Trump exhibited some legal understanding of the issue, citing an op-ed written by Harvard Professor Laurence Tribe. Trump's conclusion was that he had no doubts Rubio was eligible:
"It's a different [than Ted Cruz], very different thing because he was born here. He was born on the land."
As the attacks on Cruz's eligibility rose in intensity and Trump threatened suit, I predicted that Trump would have a hard time holding that line if Rubio rose in the polls and became Trump's main challenger:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 20, 2016 45 Comments
The video below was released last night on Facebook by former Clinton Secretary of Labor and noted liberal Robert Reich. Reich's argument is that Cruz actually believes his conservatism. Reich is right on a big picture basis, even if he exaggerates or distorts a couple of Cruz's positions. Trump, by contrast, is someone Reich feels will make deals and has no ideological foundation so while he's a bully, there's actually less to fear. Basically, Reich is telling liberals to be afraid, very afraid of Ted Cruz. This Facebook comment reflects the general sentiment:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 17, 2016 25 Comments
In this edition of Today in Political Attack Ads, no one is handling the mudslinging too well.

Cruz campaign asks stations to stop airing anti-Cruz attack ad

Oh, boo hoo. Politics is a blood sport. Time for everyone to put their big boy pants on and stop whining about attack ads. Politico reports:
Ted Cruz's campaign sent a letter to TV stations across South Carolina and Georgia on Tuesday, demanding that they stop airing what it calls "a false attack ad" from the conservative super PAC American Future Fund that goes after the Texas senator on national security. "The ad falsely claims 'Cruz proposed mass legalization of illegal immigrants.' Ted Cruz has never introduced, outlined, or supported any policy that would give legal status to illegal immigrants," wrote Eric Brown, general counsel to the campaign, in the letter shared with the media. "Indeed, quite the opposite, Ted Cruz led the fight in Congress against legislation written by Senator Rubio, among others, that created legal permanent status for millions of people in the country unlawfully. At least two fact-checks have evaluated this claim and determined it to be false, and others found no evidence to support it.”

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 13, 2016 7 Comments
In this edition of Today in Political Attack Ads, "Hillary Clinton" goes gangster on a printer, the PAC wars heat up to melt a life-sized Donald Trump, and the Club for Growth doesn't mess around.

It feels good to be a Clinton

Attackee: Hillary Clinton Attacker: Ted Cruz A spoof from a relatively famous scene in the movie Office Space, Hillary and gang whoop up on a server. Pls print.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 12, 2016 166 Comments
It's Friday afternoon. This should get the holiday weekend off to a nice, quiet start. Donald Trump, angry that negative ads are being run against him, is threatening to sue to keep Ted Cruz out of the race based on the claim that Cruz is not a "natural born Citizen" and not eligible. (h/t Hot Air) My view is here. I *thank* the people who have emailed me to call me a traitor and fraud and hack because of my view on the subject. Here is Trump's Friday Twitter Trumpertantrum: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/698231571594276866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Trump also is retweeting some some hoorahs for his threat:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on February 11, 2016 12 Comments
We're pleased to present what will be a reoccurring election feature here at Legal Insurrection -- Today in Political Attack Ads. As long as the mud is flying, you'll find it here. Political attack ads are as old and colorful as America. To our cultural credit, negative ads are far less personal these days. "John Adams is a hideous hermaphroditicly character with neither the force or firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman," claimed Thomas Jefferson (one of my personal favorites). "Do you want to see your dwelling in flames?! Female chastity violated?! Children writhing on a pike!! Well that's what will happen if you vote for Thomas Jefferson!" warned John Adams. Back in 2010, Reason put together a video chronicling some of the best campaign rhetoric from the election of 1800.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on February 10, 2016 148 Comments
An ad put out by the Ted Cruz campaign attacking Donald Trump is brilliant. The production quality is high, it's funny, and it goes to a core public perception of Trump as a candidate -- that he is not to be treated as a serious person. Trump has the highest national negatives of all candidates of either party, and does poorly in head-to-head matches not only with Ted Cruz but also with Hillary and Bernie. The ad plays on this perception by having children with a Trump Action Figure doll laugh as they recite Trumps policy positions and friendliness with people like Nancy Pelosi. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvPh9I_jwBo The end, in which the children smash a house while shouting 'eminent domain' is quite effective. Core Trump supporters are not the target of the ad. They will not be shaken.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on February 09, 2016 52 Comments
Despite studies that clearly demonstrate that women underperform and cause their entire unit to underperform in combat training, the left still seems enamored of the idea that women should be forced upon the military in these combat positions.  Indeed, now all branches of the military, including special ops, are required to accept women. The next obvious step is selective service.  If men are required by federal law to register for selective service at age eighteen, why not all women?  This is going to be a problem for the femisogynist left who really only wanted that whole equality thing to go so far.  Now, they are faced with the logical consequences of their politically correct nonsense. Army and Marine Corps chiefs have already stated that it's time to register women for selective service, so this opens a new can of worms for the progressive left.  While I couldn't find push back from progressives yet, it will come. Now, though, they are focusing on Ted Cruz who rightly argues that it is "nuts" to draft women into the military because this now includes combat positions. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Ted Cruz said Sunday a proposal to include women in the Selective Service registration was a product of out of control political correctness and warned against putting a woman soldier near a dangerous “psychopath” in a combat situation.

Posted by Jonathan Levin on February 05, 2016 45 Comments
Marco Rubio may have received the third-most votes in Iowa this week, but he won big. The Iowa caucus was Monday.  Even as votes were being counted, news emerged confirming long-standing rumor that South Carolina Senator Tim Scott would endorse Rubio. Scott is the first African-American Senator from South Carolina since Reconstruction and his endorsement could swing the state.  According to the Washington Times:
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