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2018 Elections Tag

Posted by Mary Chastain on December 26, 2017 8 Comments
The Democrats honestly believe they can take back the House of Representatives in 2018 despite needing 25 seats. Who knows if that will happen, but it's a possibility they could put a dent into the GOP majority. After all, back in October, the Cook Political Report (CPR) changed ratings in 12 districts, showing vulnerability for the GOP. Earlier today I blogged about Politico's list of top Senate races to watch. The publication did the same for the House and chose 10 of the important battles.

Posted by Mary Chastain on December 26, 2017 61 Comments
The GOP now only holds a one seat majority in the Senate since Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore, who faced numerous sexual misconduct allegations, in the Alabama Senate special election. That loss made the 2018 elections even more crucial for the GOP. Is it possible for the party to keep or even add to their majority? Or will Democrats pounce and take over? Politico listed these races as the ones to watch in the new year.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on December 24, 2017 1 Comment
Term-limited Florida Governor Rick Scott (R) cannot run for governor again, and the 2018 Florida governor's race is starting to heat up.  President Trump tweeted his support for Representative Ron DeSantis (R-FL06), saying that DeSantis would make a "GREAT" governor of Florida. While DeSantis hasn't yet entered the race, it's an open secret that he intends to do so.  DeSantis was the early fundraising front-runner in the 2016 Senate race until Senator Marco Rubio (R) announced that he was going to run again after losing the GOP presidential nomination.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on December 08, 2017 44 Comments
The speed with which Democrat Senators turned on Al Franken was startling. After the first few allegations of groping, including the infamous breast-squeezing photo, Democrats mostly shrugged their shoulders. It was uncomfortable for Democrats, but not fatal. There were few calls for Franken to resign from his fellow Democrat Senators. After all, it's hard to claim zero tolerance for sexual harassment and assault when Ted Kennedy and Bill Clinton are the two modern icons of the Democratic Party.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on November 18, 2017 37 Comments
Last weekend, I wrote about the 2018 fate of the GOP House majority ultimately being in the hands of Republicans.  They've been granted an immense honor in being bestowed with majorities in both Houses of Congress and the White House, yet they are losing support amongst their voters, including most alarmingly amongst independents.  The remedy, I proposed, was going all-in on President Trump's agenda; after all, his agenda is more popular than the GOP, Congress, and even the president himself.  What, I asked, do they have to lose? Instead of fulfilling their campaign promises and the president's agenda, the GOP is tying itself in knots trying to be more progressive than the progressives and more anti-Trump than antifa.  This leaves them in a bad situation going into 2018 because they will never win Democrat or progressive votes and are losing the Independents votes they did have on the merits of their campaign promises.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on November 16, 2017 64 Comments
Leeann Tweeden, now a local radio news anchor in Los Angeles, has authored an article accusing Senator Al Franken of non-consensual sexual contact in 2006, during a USO tour in the Middle East. This contrasts with the accusations against candidate Roy Moore, which involve alleged conduct several decades ago. Since there have been calls to "expel" Moore should he win, will there be calls to expel Franken for conduct which took place not long before his election to the Senate in 2008.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on November 12, 2017 26 Comments
In one short year, the Republican majority in the U. S. House of Representatives has shifted from seemingly safe to somewhat in jeopardy.  The Democrats have an uphill battle in the Senate, defending 25 seats to the GOP's nine, but a number of circumstances and Tuesday's election results have improved Democrats' chances of retaking the House in 2018. It doesn't appear that Democrats are gaining because of anything they've accomplished; instead, Republicans appear to be losing ground because they have failed to accomplish key goals on which they campaigned throughout the Obama presidency.  From repealing ObamaCare to building the wall to tax and legal immigration reform, Congressional Republicans are disappointing the base who elected them to office on the strength of their promises, promises it has become increasingly clear too many had no intention of fulfilling.

Posted by Mary Chastain on November 09, 2017 3 Comments
The GOP has lost another in the House: House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) will retire at the end of his term next year. Goodlatte is the third committee chairman to announce his retirement. So far, 19 GOP lawmakers have said they will not seek reelection. Roll Call said that around 22 representatives retire each cycle, but this one has hit hard since a lot of well-known members have decided to leave.

Posted by Mary Chastain on November 03, 2017 15 Comments
Several GOP lawmakers have decided to retire at the end of this term and another one has joined the ranks: Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), who represents the 21st district, which includes San Antonio. From Texas Tribune:
"For several reasons, this seems like a good time to pass on the privilege of representing the 21st District to someone else," he wrote in an email obtained by the Tribune. "... With over a year remaining in my term, there is still much to do. There is legislation to enact, dozens of hearings to hold and hundreds of votes to cast."

Posted by Mary Chastain on October 31, 2017 9 Comments
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) has told The Dallas Morning News that he will retire at the end of his term:
"Today I am announcing that I will not seek reelection to the US Congress in 2018. Although service in Congress remains the greatest privilege of my life, I never intended to make it a lifetime commitment, and I have already stayed far longer than I had originally planned," Hensarling wrote to supporters today.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on October 29, 2017 44 Comments
The GOP has had a pretty good racket going.  They tell us that in order to stop ObamaCare and any of a score of other disastrous laws, policies, and regulations, they need the next goal because the last one wasn't enough. The GOP told us they had to have the House, so we gave them the House.  Then they needed the Senate, so we gave them that.  Then they couldn't do a thing without the White House, so we gave them that.  The cynical GOP game is clear:  Ever-moving goal posts coupled with the rejection of the will of the people who elected them.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on October 28, 2017 76 Comments
Former Massachusetts governor and twice failed GOP candidate for president Mitt Romney is reportedly quite seriously contemplating a Senate run in Utah.  While the senior senator from Utah Orrin Hatch (R) has not announced any plans to retire, it appears that the Utah GOP is ready for Romney. Romney is no stranger to Senate campaigns; he ran against Ted Kennedy (D-MA) in 1994 and lost.  Utah, however, may be just the ticket for Romney who has high approval numbers there and is a favorite among the Utah GOP.

Posted by Mary Chastain on October 24, 2017 84 Comments
Arizona Republican Senator Jeff Flake has decided not to run for re-election in 2018. He told The Arizona Republic he doesn't think there is a place for him in the Senate:
He told The Arizona Republic ahead of his announcement that he has become convinced "there may not be a place for a Republican like me in the current Republican climate or the current Republican Party."

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 23, 2017 25 Comments
Anne Sorock of The Frontier Lab started writing for Legal Insurrection in April 2012 and was a regular contributor for many years. Over time Anne focused more and more of her time at The Frontier Lab, and now writes for us only sporadically. Anne uses "deep values" research rather than polling and superficial surveys. In November 2016, just after Trump's victory, I wrote about how Anne was the first person I'm aware of to predict a Trump victory ... in February 2015, Research Guru saw Trump phenomenon coming before anyone else:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 22, 2017 16 Comments
James Carville famously salvaged Bill Clinton's political career by focusing on economic problems people were facing during the 1992 campaign. The term "it's the economy, stupid," attributed to Carville as Clinton's campaign strategist, became the mantra for a generation of Democrat politicians and political strategists:

Posted by Mary Chastain on October 15, 2017 26 Comments
The Cook Political Report (CPR), a non-partisan group that analyzes elections, has changed the ratings in 12 districts across the country for the House 2018 elections as Democrats gain strength. It's important to note that the ratings have not gone directly to Democrat, but it shows that these districts have become vulnerable. Only one went from solid Democrat to likely Democrat, a plus for the Republicans.

Posted by Mary Chastain on October 11, 2017 13 Comments
The Democrats have been in a free fall since Hillary Clinton lost and the GOP picked up seats at local levels in November. Those energized by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) presidential run have started revolting against the veterans in the party. First, people have demanded that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) step down. Now they're pointing their rage at Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who announced she will run for a another term.
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