Report: A 2018 Democrat Wave Is Building In The House
How important is it for Republicans to fulfill campaign promises before 2018 midterms?
Last weekend, I wrote about the 2018 fate of the GOP House majority ultimately being in the hands of Republicans. They’ve been granted an immense honor in being bestowed with majorities in both Houses of Congress and the White House, yet they are losing support amongst their voters, including most alarmingly amongst independents. The remedy, I proposed, was going all-in on President Trump’s agenda; after all, his agenda is more popular than the GOP, Congress, and even the president himself. What, I asked, do they have to lose?
Instead of fulfilling their campaign promises and the president’s agenda, the GOP is tying itself in knots trying to be more progressive than the progressives and more anti-Trump than antifa. This leaves them in a bad situation going into 2018 because they will never win Democrat or progressive votes and are losing the Independents votes they did have on the merits of their campaign promises.
This, along with other factors such as Trump’s low approval and GOP retirements, leaves the Democrats in a pretty good position going into 2018 midterm elections.
They’re in such a good position that the Cook Political Report predicts “A Wave Is a’Comin’,” and they may not be wrong.
The last two weeks have seen some significant movement in Democrats favor. First, there were the impressive results from last Tuesday’s elections. This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15. Three other recent polls — ABC/Washington Post, Fox, and NBC/Wall Street Journal — show Democrats with an advantage of anywhere from +7 to +15.
These are political wave numbers.
But, is it realistic to think that Democrats could retain this kind of advantage into 2018? Moreover, given the Republican structural advantage — gerrymandered seats plus Democrats’ self-sorting into urban areas — is that kind of margin even big enough to net 24 seats?
My colleague David Wasserman has been digging into the question of just how big of a wave Democrats need to get in order to surf into the majority. The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018.
The last time Democrats enjoyed a margin of +8 or more in a mid-term year was 2006. That year, Democrats won the House vote by 8.5 percent. [emphasis not mine]
The instinct on the right has been to dismiss polls and historical election data, but that doesn’t always work (Virginia, this line of thinking went, was an easy GOP win across the board. Until it wasn’t. Not even close.). While polls aren’t absolute predictors, they can be balanced with everything that is going on and weighed in a given political climate.
Cook Political Report continues:
Getting a tax bill across the finish line isn’t going to be enough to change the mood of the country. It is going to take something much more significant to do that. A good economy is helpful to the GOP as it can cut down on some of the headwinds coming at them right now. But, it’s not clear to me that it’s enough to fundamentally alter the way voters see Congress, the GOP and the President.
In 2016 we made the mistake of rationalizing away the prospect of a Trump victory. He was too unorthodox. He couldn’t possibly sustain momentum through the grueling primary campaign. We should not make same mistake in 2018. Sure, a lot can change between now and next November. And, Democrats have a narrow path to 24 seats – even with a big wave or tailwind. But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building. If I were a Republican running for Congress, I’d be taking that more seriously than ever.
The Cook Political Report has 174 solid Democrat House seats and 178 solid Republican House seats. The likely/lean seats are Democrat 17, Republican 45. Toss-up or worse at Democrat 4, Republican 17.
That’s a lot of room for Republicans to lose ground, and lose ground they already are. See House Ratings Changes in Seven Districts as GOP Majority in Peril.
There does seem to be a Democrat—or perhaps more aptly at this point an ambivalent-to-the-GOP—wave building, and while I don’t agree that it’s an anti-Trump or pro-Democrat wave, it’s very real.
Congressional Republicans seem to have forgotten that they were elected to do what they said they’d do, and they need to assess the situation properly and correct course accordingly to win back the support of the Independents they’re losing and to build enthusiasm among the base. Results matter, and results lead to enthusiasm among Republican voters, and that enthusiasm leads to increased turnout. Waffling, wavering, and wimpy GOP inaction will produce, is producing, the opposite.
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Comments
keeping the House isn’t important to the GOPe at all. they never had any intention of fulfilling their promises, and senior Reps are unlikely to lose their seats anyway.
they are uninterested in ANYTHING besides staying in power, even as a minority party, to preserve their personal access to wealth & prestige. they loathe President Trump and everyone who voted for him.
losing control of the House means nothing to them, and, if it also results in POTUS being impeached, that’s a feature to them, not a bug.
we need to primary every RINO we can, and help PDT drain the swamp.
This is the problem, I think. The GOP appears to think that it’s strategically better for the party to lose the House under Trump than to keep it. Everything about that is wrong, starting with putting party over country and over the people, but I can’t see any other explanation for their failure to support what the people clearly want and what they were elected to do.
More senior reps need to lose their seats just as Cantor did. Ryan’s a good place to start.
“…The GOP appears to think that…”
It appears they appear to think that, but they don’t. NO ONE, not even hillary clinton is that lame. The GOPe is in the tank with the democrats, period. All they want is their positions perks – America be damned.
To the GOPe, our nation is but a business to be exploited like stock market share.(To the democrats,of course, it’s a dream of a political monopoly by force.)
No bigger backstabbers, no scummier swines ever walked the streets of our capitol.
PS – the thumbs-down click was not mine.
GOPe,just a Democrat by another name.
I hate them. Starting with McCain and McConnell, but I could definitely put all out of office.
Everything that Americans are disgusted by and angry about is exactly what the Democrats not only are about but are doubling down on. Open borders…Americans and America last….raw obstructionism for no other reason than spite..etc etc…
I’m not buying this….I think it’s coming from the same tainted spring that desperately wanted Hillary to win. The Democrats have gotten more out of touch then they were then…
I tend to agree. The dems are in the middle of their own civil war and their fundraising has been anemic. The only wave they are riding is the one circling the bottom of toilet bowl.
What has kept them out of the drain so far is the turmoil in and poor performance of the Rs, and the lifeline from the MSM. And the rope from the media has been slipping lately.
It will be interesting to read (the week or so) afterwards the reports on voter turn-out. D vs R? High vs Low?
Say the republicans lose the house and keep the senate. The first thing that will happen in January 2019 is impeachment hearings and a successful vote. Everyone assumes that the senate will stop it in its tracks by voting not to convict.
Why are we so sure about that? Because the republicans have the majority and that means there is no chance to get the 2/3’rds needed? I could imagine McCain almost certainly voting to convict. How many others might follow and not run for reelection?
I know, its out there and a couple of years ago I would say it would never happen. Today though….
I don’t think anyone is sure of that, brightlights. In fact, I made a wild prediction before Trump won that the GOP would remove him from office as soon as they could. It was half tongue-in-cheek as such wild predictions so often are, but it’s not implausible to see Trump impeached by a Democrat House and convicted by a Republican Senate. I don’t know if that is the plan, but it’s really the only way they hold onto their swamp and all its murky offerings.
I guess we’d find out what Mike Pence is made of if that were to happen (and frankly, I hope it doesn’t. I’d like to see the GOP get on board with MAGA. Fast.).
An impeachment vote would be 100% Democrat and 50+% Republican in both Houses. It is what it is.
As was said since the primaries, the 2016 election was the last chance, not for the Deplorables but for the establishment parties. If electoral politics changes nothing regardless of who wins, then it will cease to be a factor.
It is what it is.
Most CERTAINLY McC (and all of his buddies) would LOVE to see Trump impeached & out. OTOH, john might be dead, so….
The problem is one of conservatives staying home. With the R party proving every day they are no different than the D party….
Yep.
Well that’s stupid. You can’t remove the dead wood by staying home. The real election is in the primaries. No more of this “conservative in the primary, Republican in the general” crap.
The GOPe has pushed that thinking on us for decades because they know they’ve rigged the game.
This is war.
They’re far worse: they never took an oath to us in exchange for our votes.
A traitor is worse than an enemy soldier, any day.
Just ask bradley manning and barry obama.
No way. What is the platform of the DNC? Resistance? “We’ll stop the President and lock down the House for you! “. Yeah, right. I can see a massive number of incumbents being ousted , but not the Dems gaining seats.
The Democrats don’t need a convincing message, or really any message at all. The GOP is alienating key Trump voters (those “blue wall Democrats” who voted for Obama and then for Trump and Indies), and all Democrats need to do is reap the benefits of disillusioned, angry, and frustrated Republican voters who either stay home or vote Democrat out of their disgust with the GOPe.
Think about it, what are Republicans going to run on? Watch us not repeal ObamaCare, build the wall, or do a thing about taxes! We’ll keep doing nothing!! Vote for us, we’ll kick cans further down the road than anyone else? Watch us spew promises and then break them? GOP: the promise everything, do nothing party! Woo and hoo!
The GOP is losing the House, handing it to Dems; the Dems aren’t winning anyone’s vote on their own message or merits.
That’s exactly what happened in 2006. People revolted against the GOP refusing to follow through on what they promised so they gave a massive election to the Democrats and the result was the Blue Dog Democrats.
Then of course the Democrats shoved Obamacare down their throats and every one of them got thrown out.
Now the cycle is repeating. Republicans have been elected on their promises and they are proving again and again that they were just bullshit words they never had any intention of delivering.
Unless the GOP wakes the **** up the exact same thing is going to happen again.
The Dems want to win. They want to win so badly they’re willing to destroy everything just so long as they win the ruins.
The Dems have a message. It’s a disgraceful one, entirely wrong-headed, pernicious, and even traitorous, but it is a message.
In contrast, the Republicans don’t want to win, and have no message. This puts them in a losing position.
Unfortunately the election of Trump is not a reliable indicator that the system is self-correcting. He won in spite of the system, not because of it. There doesn’t seem to be anybody waiting in the wings who can follow his act. While I’d be happy to vote for legions of Trump-Lites to replace every last RINO who’s up for a vote, there don’t seem to be any. Which means the RINOs stay, or are replaced by Dems. So the choice is between bad and worse. Maybe not all that big a difference, after all.
Absodamnlutely.
What can the GOP possibly do to make up for their betrayal on Obamacare? Nothing, as far as I’m concerned. They might’ve blunted the edge with a great tax bill, but it doesn’t look like they’re able to do that either.
90% of them are purely incompetent. I want them gone.
“incompetent” nothing.
They’re simply – and very intentionally – stabbing us in the back.
When the swine of the GOPe say the “base is revolting,” they don’t mean we’re not voting for them.
The Vichy GOPe really thinks we’re revolting – as in “deplorable.” (Notice where that got hillary clinton.)
Cue Mel Brooks:
https://youtu.be/h0iAcQVIokg
How painfully appropriate that is!
This is why the Tea Party has to get its act together next year!!
The GOPe is clearly prepared to lose Congress if it guarantees it stats in power and yes, that would be very bad for America! It would be like the last 8 years but on steroids because the liberals will be out for revenge on EVERYONE who voted against them in 2016!
Aw gosh.
You guys are baiting me again.
Alright, I will bite one more time:
the GOP is a private club, self-serving and not beholding to the Electorate.
Every move they make is for the GOP, whatever is best.
Memebers are ranked upon values such as Seniority and how much they have brought the party in cold, hard cash.
It is a tight-knit group, much like the Elves.
Now, when it comes to outsiders such as Trump, or Moore…
They will do everything in thier power to either cast them from the party, expunge them, or starve them out of a race.
It doesn’t matter how, those types have to go.
They are a real threat to the Machine.
All good members have come up through ranks, paid their dues and contributed to the party.
Niether Trump or Moore did that.
They just cannot allow that. Period.
If these outsiders can come galloping in and start taking seats like this…
What is the real value of the GOP Machine?
It would be totally undercut.
That does not fit in the business plan.
No, far better to throw the seat in question to a Democrat, as they too are in the racket.
There will always be more elections, and a single battle lost does not cost a war.
But… should the outsiders threaten the party structure, and the machine is broken…
That can never be repaired. It is game-over for them.
So, they have never represented us aside of convenience.
But what they are doing right now, is fighting for thir very lives.
It remains to be seen if they can hang on.
I am thinking their days are numbered.
The reason I belive this, is because the Democrat Party is even worse.
Good analysis.
But it will get bloodier before it gets better.
Down withthe rino rats of the GOPe
Say the LibDems regain the House and as predicted vote to Impeach Trump. IMHO many Roll-Over Party Senators would then vote to convict Trump, blaming him for the loss of the House instead of their own fecklessness. After that the disgusted States will push seriously for an Article V Convention of the States which the Congress and GOPe will resist tooth and nail.
TERM LIMITS. There is no other way to stop the corruption in DC.
As long as they can stay in office they will do anything to do so. You and I will always come last on their to-do list.
Term limits would be PERFECT, for us, but I think Congress has a different attitude.
They are content to be the “loyal opposition” like they were under Dick Daley in Chicago. Provide the appearance of a 2 party system so we can still give a nod to the Constitution. Lazy, entitled, parasites.
As I have pointed out in other threads, the current national political scene bears no resemblance to historical politics. The reason for this is that the popular revolution, which resulted in the election of DJT, has forced the Republicans to remove their masks. For decades, the Republicans portrayed themselves as the Other Party. They ran on campaign promises to pursue policies and actions counter to those of the Democrats. They enjoyed wealth and prosperity while not having to deliver anything of importance. In 1994, the electorate betrayed them and actually place them in control of the House and Senate. The Party then worked assiduously to push away as much support as possible to return their preferred position as out-of-power underdog. Things were going smoothly for the Party, until the voters agains gave them a majority in both the House and Senate. They adopted a fierce of facade of opposition to the Progressive policies of Barack Obama, though they had no significant impact on those policies. When DJT was elected, the wheels came off. First, the GOP members of Congress were frozen into immobility. Now, they are presenting half a**ed bills which they claim represent their campaign promises, while actually doing nothing of significance. To make sure that their masters’ agenda is not destroyed, select members of the Party take turns blocking meaningful legislation.The current strategy of the party seems to be to either hope that the people who voted for change get fed up and simply don’t vote in 2018, which would allow them to continue in elected office without doing anything to offend their masters or even to sacrifice enough seats to return control to the Democrats so that the Republicans can return to their previous reelection strategy of meaningless public opposition to Progressivism.
There is really only one political party in Washington. The pieces are interchangeable and very well compensated. If a member of congress is not a millionaire when they are elected, they are within four years.
It is already to late for the Republicans to turn things around. If they don’t keep their promises, people will hate them for the manipulative liars they are. If they keep their promises and dump Obama”care” people will say, “Yeah, but they only did it because it was an election year. Afterwards, they’ll go right back to the useless thieves they’ve always been” and still hate them.
They had a small window. They failed to use it. Let them go.
We can’t let our disgust with the GOP incumbants let the Democrats win. I can’t stress this enough. They cannot gain a majority. If they do, imagine 2018- 2020? Impeacment, and road blocks. And a Dem win in 2020 for the WH? There will be no getting America back. The Left/Dem’s will move quickly and decisively to complete their ‘ fundamental’ changes to socialism. America will be gone along with the Constitution and every right therein and there will be no going back. Think about that. Imagine that.
Regardless of our distaste for some, we must turn out en masse at the polls & primaries, and we must defeat every Democrat. Even if we have to plug our noses to do it