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2016 Election Tag

Posted by New Neo on July 30, 2015 90 Comments
As a huge fan of the very articulate and forceful Carly Fiorina, I've been wondering why she continues to score very low in the polls for the Republican nomination. Here's my attempt at an answer. I believe Carly Fiorina scores low not only because she lacks name recognition, but because she has never held elective public office and she lost the one race she entered. Even though she did well (considering it was in bluer-than-blue California,) she still lost. Also, although she can explain her firing from Hewlett-Packard in a way that doesn't reflect poorly on her (see this and this), the firing still doesn't sound to the casual listener like a success story. But far more importantly, Donald Trump—-who naturally gains more publicity from his statements and his candidacy because he is flamboyant and somewhat outrageous---has taken the spot Fiorina would otherwise occupy, that of “business-oriented political outsider who has never held public office.” He is far, far more well-known than Fiorina via his long self-promoting stint in the public eye, and is therefore a magnet for the many protest voters on the right. Supporting Trump is a twofer for anyone who's angry at the establishment: he is not a member of the GOP establishment, and he really gets the goat of those who are.

Posted by Amy Miller on July 24, 2015 14 Comments
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $70 million dollars during the 2014 election cycle to protect the Republican majority in the House, and build a majority in the Senate. Their push worked---as far as getting Republican senators elected was concerned---but the group still hasn't seen a payoff when it comes to getting their agenda through Congress. The problem? Conservative incumbents in the House who have been successful in blocking the Chamber's favorite policy initiatives. According to sources on the Hill and in the lobbying community, the Chamber is gearing up for a tactical switch that will focus on challenging House GOP incumbents that have shown resistance to backing the Chamber's agenda. Common sense tells us that this could go one of three ways: it could work flawlessly, it could backfire, or it could backfire spectacularly by working at the expense of what little support the Chamber still manages to gain from the conservative base. If I were placing bets, I'd put my money on this backfiring spectacularly. Still, the Chamber is putting on a confident face and appears ready to start naming names.

Posted by Amy Miller on July 16, 2015 12 Comments
Carly Fiorina has joined the Buzzfeed Video cast of players in a new promo spot Buzzfeed is flogging as an effort "to show the men of BuzzFeed what it’s like to be a woman in the workplace." I'm sure you know what's coming. Watch: I sat at my desk for a good ten minutes working through my feelings about this one. For years, I have encouraged Republicans to be bold with their messaging, to branch out to different markets, and to stop taking themselves so damn seriously all the time.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 16, 2015 19 Comments
Long ago and far away I predicted that the effect on Hillary's presidential campaign of the multiple scandals would be cumulative. Since a large portion of the electorate, the younger generation, didn't know the real Hillary of the 1990s, Hillary's vulnerability was that the manufactured "nice grandma" and glass-ceiling breaker image of her would be supplanted by the controlling, paranoid figure of the 1990s. There is increasing evidence that the scandals, particularly the email scandal, is having an effect. You can see from the HuffPo Pollster chart that Hillary has been on a horrible favorability trajectory for the past two years: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating There is more evidence today, in an AP-Gfk Poll that shows Hillary's favorability dropping to 39% among all voters, and even dropped among Democrats (though still high):

Posted by Amy Miller on July 15, 2015 4 Comments
Yard signs. 4x8s. Pens. T-shirts. Bumper stickers. Magnets. Hats. Staff. Transportation. Food. Lodging. Web development. Graphic design. Ad buys. Social media outreach. Video production. Event planning. On and on it goes---political campaigns are expensive. Even on a statewide or local level, it takes an enormous amount of time, energy, and resources just to build of the kind of name recognition it takes to run a solid campaign and win an election. Fundraising is key, and sometimes you're forced to prioritize it---but in America in 2015, we're fully in the thrall of slick, expensive-looking marketing campaigns, so don't expect that to go away any time soon. Tonight marks the first FEC filing deadline of the cycle, which means that voters will have their first opportunity to take a peek into the world of PACS, Super-PACS, and campaign finance. In the reports, you'll be able to see the names of everyone who donated at least $200 between April 1 and June 30; these filings also show how candidates in turn use that money to pay for workspace, staffing, consulting, and advertising. Candidates on both sides of the aisle have already raised around $377 million dollars, over half of which will back just two candidates: Hillary Clinton and Jeb(!) Bush. More via Fox Business:

Posted by Amy Miller on July 09, 2015 15 Comments
Republicans and Democrats have given Jeb Bush a taste of his own foot over comments the presidential candidate made during a live-streamed interview with a local New Hampshire news outlet. Reporters with The Union Leader were quizzing Bush about his plans to grow the economy and reform the nation's tax structure when Bush said that, in order to grow the economy, "people need to work longer hours." Via ABC News:
He was answering a question about his plans for tax reform and responded: “My aspiration for the country and I believe we can achieve it, is 4 percent growth as far as the eye can see. Which means we have to be a lot more productive, workforce participation has to rise from its all-time modern lows. It means that people need to work longer hours” and, through their productivity, gain more income for their families. That's the only way we're going to get out of this rut that we're in.”
Watch:

Posted by Amy Miller on July 08, 2015 14 Comments
I remember my first unfriending-by-way-of-politics. I was 25; I'd made it all the way to my second year of law school without alienating a single person in the digital space---give me a medal. I had posted something negative about nuclear proliferation in Iran, drawing the ire of one of my best friends who also happened to be 100% Persian. Over the course of three or four heated comments, it was friendship over, both online and in the real world. 7 years of friendship, down the drain in an off-cycle. It deserved better. I like to think I've grown out of the kinds of superficial political arguments that end relationships, but there's something about an election cycle that brings out the worst in all of us. Semi-anonymity is a truth serum, and sites like Facebook and Twitter are handing it out for free. Does our addiction to social media mean that our relationships will forever wallow in an extra layer of tension? Probably; and now there's a new app called Who Deleted Me that will show you just how big of an impact your online posts are having on your friends, family and colleagues. Buzzfeed spotted it:

Posted by Mike LaChance on July 05, 2015 28 Comments
South Carolina governor Nikki Haley's political capital is rising. Her leadership in the wake of the shooting in Charleston has some wondering if she's now a contender for vice president on the GOP's 2016 ticket. Joseph Weber of FOX News:
Haley’s Charleston response, Confederate flag stand spark VP talk South Carolina GOP Gov. Nikki Haley’s response to the Charleston massacre, highlighted by her call to remove the Confederate flag from statehouse grounds, has thrust her back into the national spotlight and re-ignited talk about what role she might play in the 2016 race. Not only is Haley poised to be a powerful surrogate, there's already chatter that she could make a solid Republican vice presidential candidate. "She’d be on anybody’s list,” Mike Huckabee, one 14 GOP presidential candidates and a former Arkansas governor, told Fox News on Tuesday. “She’s done a terrific job in South Carolina.”

Posted by William A. Jacobson on July 01, 2015 5 Comments
It's not like we didn't see this coming. On May 19, 2015, I wrote that Hillary has a Blumenthal Problem - Two of Them:
I knew that Hillary was going to have a Blumenthal problem for her 2016 campaign. But I expected that the problem would be Max Blumenthal, son of close Clinton advisor Sidney Blumenthal. Max, the virulently anti-Israel activist, has been the subject of much controversy because of his penchant for vituperative and outlandish attacks on Israel, not the least of which was his call for Israeli Jews to be indigenized after the end of the Jewish state. See our Max Blumenthal Tag for some background. The issue with Max was whether Hillary could have Sidney as an advisor given Sidney’s seeming support for Max’s antics, if not his anti-Israel agenda. Buzzfeed reported on the problem back in November 2013, Clinton Adviser Sid Blumenthal’s New Cause: His Son’s Anti-Israel Book....
Max Blumenthal is toxic to any mainstream political candidate. Indeed, he'd be  too toxic even to most left-wing candidates, his anti-Israel venom is so notorious. Max's anti-Israel conspiracy theories were a big hit with the Overland Park shooter. Liberal professor and author Eric Alterman termed Max's book, Goliath, The Israel Haters Handbook. Recently, Max and a friend chased a German lawmaker into a bathroom because the lawmaker called them anti-Semites: [caption id="attachment_106023" align="alignnone" width="560"]http://youtu.be/KQUpUGCfT3s?t=1m18s [Max Blumenthal and David Sheen chase German lawmaker Gregor Gysi into bathroom][/caption]Things just got a whole lot more interesting.

Posted by Amy Miller on July 01, 2015 48 Comments
Today, popular department chain Macy's announced that it is pulling Donald Trump's line of menswear from its stores. Progressive activists renewed pressure on the company to adopt a more "inclusive" image following comments Trump made about immigrants. Trump instigated a mass freakout last Sunday during an appearance on State of the Union with Jake Tapper. After repeating his desire to finally finish a southern border fence, Trump stumbled over a politically correct tripwire:
"I like Mexico. I love the Mexican people. I do business with the Mexican people, but you have people coming through the border that are from all over. And they're bad. They're really bad," he told CNN's Jake Tapper. "You have people coming in, and I'm not just saying Mexicans, I'm talking about people that are from all over that are killers and rapists and they're coming into this country," he maintained.
Reaction was swift. Univision dropped the Miss USA and Miss Universe pageants (Trump is suing for breach of contract.) NBC Universal also cut ties. A petition posted to MoveOn.org demanding the mogul's head fielded hundreds of thousands of signatures, prompting Macy's to end its silence on the issue and cave. More from Time:

Posted by Amy Miller on June 29, 2015 14 Comments
Another day, another tiny, minuscule, pin-width beam of light shining down on who knew what, when, and how during and in the wake of the 2012 attacks on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. Most recently, we saw Sid Blumenthal, having been dragged before a Congressional committee, providing investigators with a batch of then-Secretary Clinton's private e-mails that the State Department failed to hand over. The very existence of those e-mails had members of the committee convinced that their much-maligned digging is not only justified, but necessary in the effort to figure out what was in the Administration's collective hive mind in the wake of the attacks. We already knew that Clinton and Obama spoke on the night of the Benghazi attacks; what we didn't know is what they talked about. But finally! A federal court has released a new document, the contents of which have the potential to blow this whole thing wide open. The problem? The "unclassified" document is almost completely redacted: redacted clinton email 600 wide

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on June 24, 2015 32 Comments
Ah yes, the media and gun control. Senator Cruz joined PBS host Tavis Smiley Tuesday. Smiley seized the opportunity to peg Sen. Cruz on gun control. "To me and to others who've seen this, it seemed in bad taste, but maybe that's my assessment," Smiley said. "We all know what happened in Charleston the other day, and you were on the campaign trail after this happened, here's what you said on the campaign trail." Smiley then showed Sen. Cruz a clip bearing a HuffPo watermark, dated June 19 when Cruz was addressing a crowd in Iowa. "We need a second amendment, the right to keep and bear arms. You know the great thing about the state of Iowa, I'm pretty sure y'all define 'gun control' the same way we do in Texas -- hittin' what you aim at," Cruz explained as the audience chuckled. "Gun control is hitting what you aim at. Those comments were made after this tragedy the other day in South Carolina the other day, was that in bad taste?" Smiley asked.

Posted by Amy Miller on June 22, 2015 15 Comments
Donald Trump's big presidential announcement mostly went over like a lead balloon here at Legal Insurrection. For me, it felt like just another announcement; in terms of political theatre it was huge, but in terms of substance...to be honest, I'm still distracted by all the theatre. Professor Jacobson did a radio hit after the announcement, and described the impending Trump Candidacy like this:
“Donald Trump entering the race is pretty much like somebody throwing a hand grenade into the room. He is going to get attention, he’s probably going to cause some casualties, and he is going to absorb a lot of the oxygen in the room.”
Remember what I said about political theatre? This is what that looks like---someone who comes in and sucks the life out of the cycle just by being there. This weekend, Neil Cavuto hosted a panel for a debate on whether or not America "needs to hear" Donald Trump's message on wealth. Watch:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on June 19, 2015 13 Comments
The progressive opposition research machine/PAC thing, American Bridge, is wetting their britches over what might be the absolutely lamest "gotcha" video I've ever seen. American Bridge describes itself as a, "progressive research and communications organization committed to holding Republicans accountable for their words and actions and helping you ascertain when Republican candidates are pretending to be something they’re not." They send trackers to all kinds of meetings in the hopes of catching a Republican candidate or politician spilling their deepest, darkest, Koch-funded secrets. The super secret Jeb video was described as follows:
Only a day into his official campaign for president, Jeb Bush fielded a town hall question about Social Security. And it didn’t take him long to slam the critical seniors’ program. Then he started talking about his brother — the brother who, as president, notoriously went all-in trying to make partial Social Security privatization happen. And not to leave any question lingering, Jeb made sure to note that “the next president” would have to try what his brother did again. This, from the guy who’s running to be the next president. We caught it on video. You need to watch it for yourself and share this with your friends.

Posted by Amy Miller on June 08, 2015 22 Comments
Last week, the internet broke down and polished off an entire bottle of wine after former sports star and sex symbol Bruce Jenner graced the cover of Vanity Fair dressed in the trappings of his new identity---Caitlyn. 65 year-old Jenner came out last week as "Caitlyn," confirming longstanding rumors teased at by Kris Jenner and others in the Hollywood realm that Bruce's true identity wasn't necessarily as masculine as he had portrayed himself since his rise to sports fame in the '70s. As "he" flipped to "she," political pundits on both sides of the aisle took to the airwaves to give their opinion on sexual identity, traditional vs. evolving gender roles, and how issues involving transgender people relate to the battle of ideologies currently raging over the legalization of same sex marriage. During an interview on CNN's State of the Union, presidential candidate and US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) surprised everyone by taking a stand on the issue of Jenner's admittedly Republican political leanings. By "took a stand," I mean he welcomed her into the party. Hat tip to the New York Post:
"If Caitlyn Jenner wants to be safe, and have a prosperous economy, vote for me. I'm into addition. I haven't walked in her shoes; I don't have all the answers to the mysteries of life. I can only imagine the torment that Bruce Jenner went through. I hope he---I hope she---has found peace. I'm a pro-life, traditional marriage kind of guy, but I'm running to be President of the United States. If Caitlyn Jenner wants to be a Republican, she is welcome in my party."
Watch, via MSNBC:

Posted by David Gerstman on June 08, 2015 25 Comments
The New York Times yesterday featured an article on Hillary Clinton's electoral strategy for 2016. In short, she apparently is mimicking President Barack Obama's strategy for his second term.
Instead, she is poised to retrace Barack Obama’s far narrower path to the presidency: a campaign focused more on mobilizing supporters in the Great Lakes states and in parts of the West and South than on persuading undecided voters. Mrs. Clinton’s aides say it is the only way to win in an era of heightened polarization, when a declining pool of voters is truly up for grabs. Her liberal policy positions, they say, will fire up Democrats, a less difficult task than trying to win over independents in more hostile territory — even though a broader strategy could help lift the party with her.
There's a phrase in those two paragraphs, "era of heightened polarization," that's worth reflecting on. I know how all right thinking people lament the growing partisanship in politics, but there's a pretty clear cause and effect implicit here, though the Times won't admit it: Obama in his quest for reelection, pursuing a narrow strategy, has increased the polarization in politics. Clinton plans to follow suit. I question if this is a wise strategy for Clinton to pursue. I'm not alone.

Posted by Leslie Eastman on May 28, 2015 18 Comments
Now that former Senator Rick Santorum has dived into the presidential pool, I thought I would check the status of a candidate who is already in -- Carly Fiorina. Early in her candidacy, Professor Jacobson noted she was "rocking it" by taking the fight to Hillary Clinton. She continues to show the rest of the field how to target the elusive Democratic candidate. For example, Clinton has been less than responsive when it comes to addressing the American press. In contrast, Fiorina held a press conference...directly outside a Clinton event.
First the former Hewlett Packard chief executive popped up outside the Marriott hotel where Clinton was just about to kick off a campaign event, offering to take questions from the press since Clinton so often won't. Forty-five minutes later and six blocks down the road, there Fiorina was again, bragging to the South Carolina House Republican caucus about what she'd just done as they chewed on grilled chicken at a Hilton hotel luncheon. "I've answered probably 420-plus questions on the record about everything, from, 'Is a hot dog a sandwich?' -- I flubbed that one, I will tell you -- to what I would do about ISIS and everything in between," Fiorina said. "And Hillary Clinton has answered maybe 15 questions."
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