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Posted by Amy Miller on October 18, 2014 10 Comments
A new data dump from Pew Research suggests that political campaigns might want to abandon any last-ditch efforts to change minds prior to this year's midterm elections. A continuous panel survey of 3,154 adults showed that this years likely voter demographic is more polarized than the average American. This polarization also affects level of involvement in local and national politics: the more ideologically oriented the voter, the more likely they are to be politically active. Only 40% of the population is expected to participate in the November midterms, but those who do plan on voting won't necessarily be checking the box because they believe in the power of democracy. Pew found a strong correlation between ideological polarization, and voting as a way to hit back at the opposing party.
Hostility to the opposing party is a key marker of polarization and is a strong motivator to vote, especially among conservatives and Republicans. Ideology and partisan antipathy are related: Those holding ideologically consistent opinions are far more likely than others to view the opposing party negatively, and even to view it as a threat to the nation’s well-being. Among Republicans and Republican leaners with a very unfavorable view of the Democratic Party in the current survey, 65% are likely voters, compared with only 49% among Democrats with a very unfavorable view of the Republican Party. Those who are less hostile to the opposite party are considerably less likely to vote. Among Republicans, 40% of those with a mostly unfavorable view of Democrats are likely to vote, and only 23% of those with positive views (or who offer no opinion) of the Democratic Party are likely to vote. On the other side, 33% of Democrats with a mostly unfavorable view of the Republican Party are forecasted to turn out, as are 19% of those with positive views of (or no opinion about) the GOP.
In addition to being polarized, both Republican and Democrat voters remained loyal to their party as the midterm cycle progressed. 91% of Republicans and 92% of Democrats have remained ideologically consistent, and haven't changed their minds regarding which candidate they plan on voting for in November. 10-17-2014-3 Who has had a change of heart? Independents have---and they're trending Republican.

LATEST NEWS

Posted by Andrew Branca on October 17, 2014 84 Comments

A breaking New York Times report sheds new light on Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson's mortal encounter with local Michael Brown.

The police officer who fatally shot Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., two months ago has told investigators that he was pinned in his vehicle and in fear for his life as he struggled over his gun with Mr. Brown, according to government officials briefed on the federal civil rights investigation into the matter. The officer, Darren Wilson, has told the authorities that during the scuffle, Mr. Brown reached for the gun. It was fired twice in the car, according to forensics tests performed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The first bullet struck Mr. Brown in the arm; the second bullet missed. The forensics tests showed Mr. Brown’s blood on the gun, as well as on the interior door panel and on Officer Wilson’s uniform. Officer Wilson told the authorities that Mr. Brown had punched and scratched him repeatedly, leaving swelling on his face and cuts on his neck.

According to the New York Times, Wilson told authorities that he fought with Brown for possession of his service pistol, resulting in two rounds fired inside his police vehicle.  One round struck Brown in the arm, and the other was wasted.

Importantly, Brown's blood was found on the gun by forensics analysis, as well as on the inside of the police vehicle, confirming his presence in the vehicle and the weapon.

Wilson said that Brown punched and scratched him numerous times, causing abrasions and swelling to his face and neck.

The officials briefed on the case said the forensic evidence gathered in the car lent credence to Officer Wilson’s version of events. According to his account, he was trying to leave his vehicle when Mr. Brown pushed him back in. Once inside the S.U.V., the two began to fight, Officer Wilson told investigators, and he removed his gun from the holster on his right hip. Chief Jon Belmar of the St. Louis County Police Department has said in interviews that Officer Wilson was “pushed back into the car” by Mr. Brown and “physically assaulted.”

The Times goes on to quote Brown's friend Dorian Johnson as a sort of opposing witness to Officer Wilson.

Posted by Robert Shibley on October 17, 2014 17 Comments
WAJ: This is a guest post by Robert L. Shibley, Senior Vice President of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE). As "Yes Means Yes" mania sweeps across college campuses, and the lives of innocent men falsely accused are ruined in a witch hunt atmosphere, the FIRE once again is at the forefront of standing up for the individual. ----------------------------------- On Monday, Vox co-founder Ezra Klein penned an op-ed about how he firmly supported the affirmative consent bill recently passed in California despite his candid acknowledgment that the bill was in fact “terrible.” The general tenor of his column, which I discussed in The Daily Caller yesterday, was that you can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs—the eggs being people unjustly found guilty of rape. Critics on the left and the right were equally appalled, as well they—or anyone concerned with civil liberties—should have been. Under this barrage of well-deserved criticism, Klein returned with a longer piece yesterday, attempting to justify his candid-yet-horrifying position on California’s law. He fails. In fact, despite his column’s title, “What people get wrong about the Yes Means Yes law,” he fails to even get basic facts about the law right. Klein does the same thing that so many other supporters of the law have done, which is to present the law and the campus environment in inaccurate ways that just happen to make due process abuses seem less grievous. So allow me to present a mini-Fisking of the article, and you can be the judge of who’s right. I won’t address every line of Klein’s long, doomed attempt at self-justification, but I will hit the highlights (or perhaps lowlights). There are plenty of them. Klein opens thusly:

Posted by Amy Miller on October 17, 2014 3 Comments
The U.S. Military is on a mission to manage expectations regarding the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Army Gen. Lloyd Austin, commander of U.S. military operations against Islamic State, gave an update at the Pentagon about the military campaign in Iraq, and emphasized that while U.S. forces have made gains against Islamic State militants, we still have a long way to go. From AP's Big Story:
Army Gen. Lloyd Austin said he believes the Iraqi government will successfully enlist the support of Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar province to turn the tide in that important region, where the militants have made recent gains. And he said he sees no imminent threat to the international airport west of Baghdad, where U.S. Apache helicopters are monitoring IS efforts to make inroads on the capital. "The campaign to destroy ISIL will take time and there will be occasional setbacks along the way," Austin told a Pentagon news conference, using another acronym for the Islamic State group, "and particularly in these early stages of the campaign as we coach and mentor a force that is actively working to regenerate capability after years of neglect and poor leadership."
I recently wrote a rather frustrated article about the actions of the Obama administration in conjunction with our mission in northern Iraq; the optics surrounding this administration are embarrassing on an international level, which is why I believe that it's a smart move for the military to temper expectations while emphasizing plans and progress.

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Posted by New Neo on October 17, 2014 35 Comments
Hey, that'll work:
President Obama has asked Ron Klain, who served as chief of staff to both Vice President Biden and former vice president Al Gore, as his Ebola response coordinator, according to a White House official. "He will report directly to the president’s homeland security adviser, Lisa Monaco, and the president's national security adviser, Susan Rice, as he ensures that efforts to protect the American people by detecting, isolating and treating Ebola patients in this country are properly integrated but don’t distract from the aggressive commitment to stopping Ebola at the source in West Africa," a White House official wrote in an e-mail. Klain, a longtime Democratic operative, served as Biden's chief of staff from 2009 to 2011 and as Gore's from 1995 to 1999. He helped oversee the Democratic side in the 2000 presidential election recount as its lead lawyer, a role that Kevin Spacey portrayed in the HBO film "Recount."
Klain has virtually no experience except for the political and the legal. He's another Harvard Law graduate, and briefly clerked for SCOTUS Justice Byron White, but after that there's mostly a long string of Democratic political positions, including a stint as debate prepper. The following [emphasis mine] is really a masterpiece in gracefully laconic understatement by the WaPo. My hat is off to the article's authors:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 17, 2014 30 Comments
I've seen people writing and tweeting about #GamerGate. I have no idea what that is, still. Looks like it has something to do with Gamers and Liberal Feminists (image below of Christina Hoff Sommers, who has confronted liberal feminists herself): I received the email below, which intrigued me. I'm too caught up in #Ebola to research #GamerGate, so I'm issuing a cry for help -- What is #GamerGate?
This might look like another inconsequential Twitter war, but it intersects with issues you find relevant and is gaining traction. Gamergate is a growing movement by (don't laugh) video game enthusiasts who are fed up with: 1) favoritism within the $90 billion gaming industry, namely game journalists who have essentially become king-makers and who use their influence to benefit friends and patrons to the detriment of objectivity in reporting, the financial prospects of respected upstarts, and most of all community trust.

Posted by Andrew Branca on October 17, 2014 20 Comments
In breaking news CNN reports that Michael Dunn, the Florida man who fired multiple rounds at four black teenagers in an SUV after an argument about their loud music, has been sentenced to life without parole.  One of those four teenagers, Jordan Davis, was mortally wounded.  Dunn had argued self-defense as justification for the shootings.

Posted by Mike LaChance on October 17, 2014 40 Comments
At a recent appearance in Detroit, a city which is falling apart at the seams after decades of Democratic Party rule, Ms. Clinton stuck up for the Obama administration's auto industry bailouts while making an underhanded jab at Mitt Romney. Dan Merica of CNN reported:
Hillary Clinton subtly swipes at Mitt Romney over auto bailout Hillary Clinton cribbed a page from President Barack Obama's playbook on Thursday by taking a swipe at Mitt Romney's 2008 oped, "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." At an event outside Detroit, where the former secretary of state endorsed Democrats Mark Schauer and Gary Peters, Clinton spoke glowingly of their support for the 2008 auto bailout that invested billions into the United States struggling auto industry. "Now, they could take the safe way, they could line up with those saying 'Let Detroit go bankrupt,' let manufacturing just wither away," Clinton said to a chorus of boos. "They could be on the side of those who were criticizing what they called government motors." Though Clinton never mentioned Romney by name, the comment appeared to be directed at him, as well as Schauer's and Peters' Republican opponents.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 16, 2014 23 Comments
Deadspin, which is part of Gawker Media, ran a story yesterday that Cory Garnder, the Republican running for Senate in Colorado who is ahead in the polls, had faked his high school football career. Deadspin Cory Gardner Lying Football It was game over according to the cheerleading section on Twitter. As they were high-fiving each other and ordering extra beers for the post-election celebration, a funny thing happened.  The story turned out to be false.

Posted by Amy Miller on October 16, 2014 30 Comments
I've written previously about California's new "Yes Means Yes" law, which codifies a strict definition of "affirmative consent" as it applies to students on college campuses. It's a terrible bill, but some liberals are touting its absolute failure to address any real problems as its greatest achievement. A group of professors at Harvard Law School recently published a joint letter in the Boston Globe begging the university to rethink its implementation of a similar standard:
We call on the university to withdraw this sexual harassment policy and begin the challenging project of carefully thinking through what substantive and procedural rules would best balance the complex issues involved in addressing sexual conduct and misconduct in our community. The goal must not be simply to go as far as possible in the direction of preventing anything that some might characterize as sexual harassment. The goal must instead be to fully address sexual harassment while at the same time protecting students against unfair and inappropriate discipline, honoring individual relationship autonomy, and maintaining the values of academic freedom.
28 professors from one of the finest law schools on the planet believe that these laws go to far. They're not just a change in policy; they redefine the meaning of "sexual assault," and "consent." They're a gross overreach into the lives of students that flies in the face of the basic concepts of justice and due process. Chief Voxsplainer Ezra Klein recently penned an article explaining why he believes affirmative consent regulatory overreach---and subsequent overregulation of the sex lives of young Californians---will eliminate the alleged culture of "sexual entitlement" on college campuses. In Ezra Klein's illiberal utopia, we achieve that goal by making examples out of men whose only crime is that they are male:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 16, 2014 42 Comments
S--t just got real. The call up will assist the military force fighting Ebola as part of Operation United Assistance. The Executive Order appears to be part of sending the National Guard to Liberia. Here's the Order, via Zeke Miller: Obama Ebola Executive Order October 16 2014 Here's the key portion of the Order:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on October 16, 2014 46 Comments
Houston's summer was marred by a battle over religious liberties and overreaching government. Sparring over a city ordinance that would force businesses, among other things, to allow transgendered clientele the use of opposite sex restrooms or risk discrimination suits, Bayou City area clergy and the government aren't exactly on the best of terms. Rather than placing the measure on the ballot, City Council enacted the reform via city ordinance. Rallying together, clergy and concerned citizens submitted over more than twice as many required to repeal the ordinance. Then the validity of the signatures was called to question by the city attorney. And that's where this story picks up. The Houston City government made a bad situation worse when it subpoenaed five local area pastors. The subpoena requests any and all communication, electronic and otherwise that remotely mentions the above mentioned city ordinance battle. But it doesn't stop there:
All speeches, presentations, or sermons related to HERO, the Petition, Mayor Annise Parker, homosexuality, or gender identity prepared by, delivered by, revised by, or approved by you or in your possession.
Churches qualify for 501(c)(3) tax exempt status and can lose that status by engaging in electioneering or elicit candidate endorsement, just the same as any other 501(c)(3) organization; but none of the subpoenaed material falls within that category.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on October 16, 2014 11 Comments
I can't remember the last time a non-partisan major national analyst gave Democrat Martha Robertson much chance of winning in my home NY-23 District against incumbent Republican Tom Reed. Maybe early this year, when Robertson was the fresh face of the Democratic Party, the darling of Emily's List, and a coveted Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) "Red-to-Blue" designee. The past few months, however, have not been kind to Robertson. Scandals that surfaced early in the campaign never went away and sapped her campaign of any momentum. Robertson's campaign seemed emotionally incapable of accepting responsibility for anything, and her hiding act from the media made her seem distant. Robertson's fat shaming attacks on Reed, which gained national attention, took a struggling campaign and turned it into something of a circus sideshow act. http://www.mytwintiers.com/story/d/story/republicans-claim-robertson-fat-shaming-reed-with/55514/gKeceoroN0aKL7Mek9eXJA#.U_UyYlwqEOA.twitter Robertson seemed not to know how to deal with Reed's "extreme Ithaca liberal" attack ads on Robertson other than to whine about it, which just repeated the message. It resonated. Then the DCCC pulled the plug on TV ad time reserved for the last two weeks of the campaign, in a devastating blow, not just financially, but in campaign credibility. When your strongest backers walk away, it sends a message to voters. Robertson had only about half the cash on hand as of September 30 as Reed, $498,529 to $919,391, so the loss of over $400,000 in DCCC spending hurts. The true Robertson believers are seeing conspiracy theories everywhere:
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