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Posted by New Neo on January 10, 2016 25 Comments
I realize that at this point polls don't matter too much, if at all. But they still interest me, because they're the best evidence we've got about public opinion. They can also tell us something about trends, and the trend for Hillary right now appears to be down. The newest national poll is from Fox, based on phone interviews that were conducted from Jan 4-7 and featuring 1006 registered voters, the vast majority of whom said they intend to vote. For Republican respondents the margin of error was 5%, which is rather large. For the entire survey, the margin of error was 3%, which is more typical but still worthy of note when the figures are close. It's very interesting to see what's happening with the projected head-to-head battles of some of the Republican leaders against Hillary Clinton. Mostly the results seem to preserve the patterns each candidate has already established for quite some time, with Rubio doing the best of all (a +9 lead, more than he's had before). Cruz is next with a +7 lead (also bigger than he had before), and Trump has a +3 lead.

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Posted by Jonathan Levin on January 10, 2016 27 Comments
Bill Kristol, Founder and Editor of that mainstay of the Republican Establishment, The Weekly Standard, has finally come to recognize Donald Trump's contribution to the Republican candidates as a group. Kristol is not a Trump supporter and has predicted his fall for months.  After Trump derided John McCain's heroism for merely being a POW for five-plus years, Kristol said, "he's dead to me."  In the same interview he opined, "I don't think he'll stay up in the polls, incidentally. Republican primary voters are pro-respect the military. And he showed disrespect for the military." In September, Kristol said on CNN, “I doubt I’d support Donald. I doubt I’d support the Democrat.” Instead, “I think I’d support getting someone good on the ballot as a third party candidate.”  In reporting Kristol's comments, Salon referred to him as a "notorious neocon" and a "neocon prince."

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 09, 2016 11 Comments
This story is almost too unbelievable to be true, but it is true. Ezra Nawi is not just another Israeli leftist activist. He was one of the most prominent Israeli activists engaged in direct action to interfere with Israeli military activities in Judea and Samaria (the "West Bank"). Nawi's actions brought him accolades abroad. He was featured in a favorable NY Times article in 2009:
For his activist colleagues, Mr. Nawi’s instinctual connection to the Palestinians is valuable. Ezra Nawi was in his element. Behind the wheel of his well-worn jeep one recent Saturday morning, working two cellphones in Arabic as he bounded through the terraced hills and hardscrabble villages near Hebron, he was greeted warmly by Palestinians near and far.

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 09, 2016 10 Comments
I really had expected the worst regarding the anti-Israel resolution being voted on at the Business Meeting taking place at the American Historical Association's Annual Meeting in Atlanta. For full background and details, see our prior post, American Historical Association to Consider Anti-Israel Resolution. The Times of Israel also had an extensive write-up today, in which I was extensively quoted. If the Resolution had passed the Business Meeting, it likely would have gone to a full membership vote. I thought the Resolution had a chance because, as I was quoted in The Times of Israel:
“The way these business meetings go is most people don’t show up,” Jacobson said. “Most don’t even go to the annual meeting, and most who do go to the annual meeting don’t go to the business meeting. It comes on the last day, late in the afternoon, when a lot of people have already left town. So if you have an organized group of a couple of hundred people, they may be able to get this through the business meeting because they are the ones most motivated to show up.”
The vote just took place, and the Resolution was soundly defeated, 51 for, 111 against.

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Posted by Mike LaChance on January 09, 2016 8 Comments
A new survey shows that Donald Trump has bipartisan appeal and that some Democratic voters would abandon Hillary to vote for him in a general election match-up. If you enjoy imagining nightmare scenarios for Democrats, you'll love this. James Warren of U.S. News and World Report has the story:
Trump Could Win It All So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct? A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk. The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 09, 2016 23 Comments
Reading the accounts from Cologne about the throngs of Arab men sexually assaulting women in Cologne on New Year's Eve, my first thought went to Lara Logan who suffered a similar fate in Egypt during the "Arab Spring." Lara is continuing to suffer from the unspeakable abuse she endured and was again hospitalized early in 2015.  My second thought went to the Second Amendment. As the evil that was perpetrated on over a hundred women (in Cologne alone) sinks in, the governments in Germany and throughout the western world—reports of similar attacks in Finland are emerging—are feeling more pressure than ever to address the refugee crisis and their own policies. Der Spiegel has published a lengthy and thoughtful article entitled "Chaos and Violence: How New Year's Eve in Cologne Changed Germany."
For some, the events finally bring to light what they have always been saying: that too many foreigners in the country bring too many problems along with them. For the others, that which happened is what they have been afraid of from the very beginning: that ugly images of ugly behavior by migrants would endanger what has been a generally positive mood in Germany with respect to the refugees.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 09, 2016 28 Comments
As we discussed last weekend, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders' is wooing supporters of Republican presidential contender, Donald Trump. Not uncommon in a general election, reaching across party lines to glad-hand during primary season should be bizarre. But in this particular election cycle, both Trump and Sanders' strongest support comes from two strikingly similar groups of disenchanted Americans. Back to last weekend's post exploring this phenomenon:
Sound impossible? Data suggests otherwise. Though Trump has successfully syphoned off some traditional Republican supporters, the majority of his support base is comprised of a very particular kind of Democrat.

Posted by Mike LaChance on January 09, 2016 27 Comments
Now that Texas governor Greg Abbott has been in office for a while, it's easy to see why he beat Wendy Davis so handily. Abbott is pushing back against what he, and many others, see as an overreaching federal government. The Dallas Morning News reports:
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott calls for Convention of States to take back states’ rights Gov. Greg Abbott, aiming to spark a national conversation about states’ rights, said Friday that he wants Texas to lead the call for a convention to amend the U.S. Constitution and wrest power from a federal government “run amok.”

Posted by Leslie Eastman on January 09, 2016 8 Comments
We recently noted that enforcement of the REAL ID Act was poised to begin shortly, and that airport travelers from several states were going to need passports or other forms of identification because the state driver's licenses do not meet the regulatory requirements. States on the "naughty" list were pushing for implementation delays, and California had already received approval for an October compliance start date. The Department of Homeland Security has now delayed implementation of travel identification requirements until 2018 for everyone:

Posted by William A. Jacobson on January 08, 2016 29 Comments
A rally is planned in Ithaca, NY, for January 9, 2016, against allegedly racist violence by police, specifically the non-indictments in the deaths of Sandra Bland and Tamir Rice, and the deaths of Betty Jones and Quintonio LeGrier. The event is taking place at the Ithaca Commons, a public space in the center of town. Here's part of the description from the public Facebook Event Page:
On December 23rd a grand jury decided not to indict the jailers involed in the death of Sandra Bland. On December 28th a grand jury decided not to indict officer Timothy Leohmman in the extra judical killing of 12-year old Tamir Rice. On December 26th 55 year-old Betty Jones was mistakingly shot and killed by police as she opened her door. Her neighbor 19-year old Quintonio LeGrier was also killed. This is a rally in response to these events and the increasing violence and general terror administered by police towards people of color. The purpose of this rally is as follows: Agitation Mobilization Information
Ithaca Protest Sandra Bland FB Page banner

Posted by Andrew Branca on January 08, 2016 41 Comments
UPDATED (1/8/16): We've embedded the state's response to the appellate court order at the bottom of this post. UPDATED (1/8/16): We've embedded Chief Judge Krauser's order at the bottom of this post. Well, that was (appropriately) quick. The Maryland Court of Special Appeals, the state's mid-level appellate court, today issued an order halting trial Judge Barry Williams' order that Baltimore Police Officer William Porter could be compelled to testify in the trial of fellow officer Caesar Goodson despite the fact that Porter is awaiting his own re-trial. The order from the Court of Special Appeals, written by Chief Judge Peter B. Krauser, does not seem to be publicly available yet (if anybody has a copy they can send me, let me know in the comments below), and news reports leave the order's full legal rationale and legal is unclear.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on January 08, 2016 2 Comments
Using Twitter, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto announced Friday that fugitive Drug Lord, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman was captured and in federal custody again.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on January 08, 2016 18 Comments
Yesterday, a man whose name has not yet been released attempted to slaughter a Philadelphia police officer because the police, he believes, uphold laws that are not consistent with the Koran.  He also reportedly told Philadelphia police officers that he has pledged his allegiance to ISIS. ABCNews reports:
A 30-year-old man accused of firing at least 11 times at a Philadelphia police officer had pledged allegiance to ISIS, police said today. The gunman, now in custody, "confessed to committing this cowardly act in the name of Islam," Philadelphia Police Commissioner Richard Ross said during a news conference. "According to him, he believed that the police defend laws that are contrary to the teachings of the Quran." Philadelphia Police Captain James Clark said the suspect, who's name was not released at the news conference, "stated that he pledges his allegiance to Islamic State, he follows Allah and that is the reason he was called upon to do this."
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