The so-called midterm ‘blue wave’ forced to contend with real life data
“Democrats would have to win larger than any sort of recent midterm wave — almost double what they got in 2006 — in order to win a narrow majority.”
As we sit on the edge of April headed into 2018 crunch time, those in the media promising a massive blue wave (Texas primaries anyone?) come November will be forced to contend with data that suggests that this blue wave is nothing more than an over-hyped trickle.
Monday, a CNN poll showed Trump’s approval rating (by their metrics) is at its highest since he first took office. General opinion of Republicans too is on the up and up. Voters are particularly keen on Trump’s handling of the economy. Because as we’ve learned, “it’s the economy, stupid.”
Overall, 42% approve of the way Trump is handling the presidency, 54% disapprove. Approval is up 7 points overall since February, including 6-point increases among Republicans (from 80% to 86% now) and independents (from 35% to 41% now). Trump’s approval rating remains below that of all of his modern-era predecessors at this stage in their first term after being elected, though Trump only trails Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama by a narrow 4 points at this point in their first terms.
Trump’s approval ratings have seesawed over the last four CNN polls — from 35% in December up to 40% in January, down to 35% in February and back up to 42% now. Looking at intensity of approval, however, the share who strongly approve of Trump’s performance (28% in the new poll) and strongly disapprove (46%) have held relatively steady over a similar time frame, suggesting the fluctuation in Trump’s ratings comes largely among those whose views on the President aren’t that deeply held.
The President’s strongest approval ratings on the issues come on the economy, the only issue tested where his reviews tilt more positive than negative: 48% approve and 45% disapprove. That isn’t the case on foreign trade, however, the economic issue on which Trump has most recently taken action, implementing tariffs aimed at Chinese imports, steel and aluminum. On trade generally, 38% approve of the President’s work while 50% disapprove.
Meanwhile, a report released by the Brennan Center for Justice throws some serious shade at the blue wave wish-casting. According to that report, Democrats would have to, “to win the national popular vote for congressional districts by a nearly 11 percentage point margin over Republicans to gain more than the roughly two dozen seats they need to flip control of the Republican-led chamber,” according to the AP. No such feat has been achieved in the last 40 years.
Democrats are blaming Republican gerrymandering, but excuses don’t win elections.
Here's an exercise: what % of 2018 House elections will be held in states w/ "extreme" GOP gerrymanders still in place? I bet it's smaller than a lot of people think. If you add up GA, MI, MO, NC, OH, TX, UT, WI – that's still only about 26% of all 435 House seats.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 26, 2018
It's possible to make the case other states are "mild" GOP gerrymanders. But there are also a few states w/ Dem gerrymanders: IL, MA, MD. The takeaway: GOP gerrymandering is clearly an obstacle to Dems retaking the House, but not as huge of one as commonly thought.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 26, 2018
From the AP:
The report projects that Democrats would need to win the national popular vote for congressional districts by a nearly 11 percentage point margin over Republicans to gain more than the roughly two dozen seats they need to flip control of the Republican-led chamber.
That would take more than the typical Democratic wave that history suggests would occur for the party out of power during a midterm election.
“It would be the equivalent of a tsunami,” said Michael Li, a senior counsel who heads up redistricting work for the center, which is based at New York University School of Law. “Democrats would have to win larger than any sort of recent midterm wave — almost double what they got in 2006 — in order to win a narrow majority.”
The Brennan Center opposes what it calls “extreme gerrymandering” in which political parties draw legislative districts that virtually ensure they will hold on to power.
The center has filed a court brief in a case to be heard Wednesday by the U.S. Supreme Court supporting a lawsuit by Republicans alleging that Maryland’s former Democratic governor and legislature unconstitutionally gerrymandered a congressional district to their advantage.
It also has filed court briefs supporting Democratic lawsuits alleging unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering by Republicans in states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
The center’s analysis notes that Democrats gained 31 seats when they won the national congressional vote by 5.4 percentage points in 2006. Yet under the current districts, which were redrawn after the 2010 Census under GOP control of many state capitols, a similar national victory margin in the November election is projected to net Democrats only about a dozen new seats.
“About a dozen new seats.” Democrats need at least 24 seats to claim a majority in the House.
The math is not favoring Democrats here:
The report projects that a 10 percentage point national margin would gain 21 seats for Democrats — still shy of the 23 or 24 needed to claim a House majority. An 11-point margin is projected to gain 28 seats for Democrats, but they haven’t achieved such a large midterm victory since a nearly 14 point margin gained them 49 seats in 1974.
Add to this number cocktail the fact that Democrats are doubling down on the gun control narrative over an incident (the Florida school shooting) that just about everyone understands had nothing to do with gun laws and everything to do with government ineptitude. Not to mention the American public that lives between the coasts…which the press always forgets about, misinterprets, and misunderstands.
Democrats (and their media counterparts) have tried to make every single election since Trump’s inauguration a referendum on Trump, reading into the tea leaves what they want to see.
As a result, public opinion for both Trump and Republicans would have to absolutely tank for any blue wave to have a chance of cresting in the 2018 cycle. If the economy keeps growing stronger and Trump continues to work down is campaign promise list, the much-touted blue wave may very well be little more than a ripple.
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“Don’t get cocky, kid.”
As Captain America would say: “Forever vigilant.”
(For all his achievements, why is it Captain America never got promoted?)
Because then he’d be working a desk (at best) or become a REMF with further promotions (at worst)
LOL! I’m bringing that up with my “Marvel Superhero” worshiping son.
Assume the worst and fight for victory. If as hapless as the GOPe are in Congress, it would be Maxine Waters and Pelosi on steroids if the Democrats take control.
2006 Republicans: Woot! Look at all the seats we lost.
2018 Republicans: Hold my imported beer.
The Republicans are doing their best to throw the race. Is anybody else tired of having to fight their own party?
You got that right. If there is a “blue wave”, it will be the result of the corrupt Republican leadership pushing their non-conservative candidates on the voters. They support only candidates who will implement the agenda of the party leaders (and the contributors who own them), and fight against anyone fit to be in government.
Unless people take more interest in primary elections, and vote down the party-approved candidates, they will continue to put these worthless slugs on the ballot, who ought to lose (but not to even worse Democrats).
I really don’t care what the “national” wave is. All politics are local.
The Republicans in Congress have over half a year left to prove that they will do whatever the Democrats want. Their main goal is destroying the morale of their own former voter base.
Extreme Gerrymandering = VRA Districts
Incredibly dishonest to mention gerrymandering without discussing the most important factor: the VRA absolutely requires gerrymandering, of the most extreme variety in existence, based ENTIRELY on race, in order to guarantee Democrat Congressmen win those districts.
Look at any State’s Districts. If that a State has VRA districts, you can spot them instantly: that is where the extreme gerrymandering is.
Blaming R’s for this is ludicrous. ANY change by R’s to these districts and D’s file lawsuits in federal court and almost always win.
Result? Minorities that vote D get packed into VRA districts, and tend to vote >90% D. When Obama was at the top of the ticket, many of these voted 100% D.
This, and this alone, is why D’s need an 11% win on the national vote now just to have some slight hope of a majority in Congress.
No one to blame but themselves. That’s the plain truth of the matter.
So, what do they do? Blame others. Because that is the essence of modern “liberalism” – lefties are never responsible for any of their own actions, in their own eyes.
Any effort to make predictions about the political elections this fall is a futile effort. There is a wealth of information indicating that the OIG report as well as other reports are going to start coming out that will show the illegal behavior of Hillary, Obama, the DNC, and so many others on the Left. From what we are hearing now, these reports will be filled with overwhelming amounts of data that are very well supported such that these reports will be all but unimpeachable. If these reports are released and they live up to even a fraction of what they are advertised to be, then Democrats everywhere will face a horrible backlash from angry voters. For this reason any predictions of the fall’s election is an exercise in futility.
I’ve come to the point where I don’t believe much of anything the “experts” say.
I’ll vote on Election Day and then say my prayers that we don’t get our butts handed to us and lose the Congress…though I’m not totally convinced we haven’t already considering the RINOs we have there.
Put in to perspective…not only do they have to win every race for Republican seats that are up for grabs BUT they have to also hang on to every Democrat seat that is up for grabs.
While not impossible its most certainly not the foregone conclusion the mother fucking media will have you believe (and certainly the GOPe wants to achieve)!!!
Everything the media and it’s Democrat co-conspirators say is based on the few special elections they pulled off with the help of tens-of-millions of dollars from out of state donors. As the “real” election heats up, those dollars are going to be spent at home and the DNC coffers are already bare. I heard an operative for a Dem PAC saying that they will be concentrating on 90 elections in districts they have to protect and some they have to swing. They sure won’t be able to throw four or five million at each of those like they’ve been doing. No matter how much the Dems try to keep Stormy and the Russians out in front, everything Trump has done and has in process has been a WIN. Obama, Pelosi & Reid in 2010 were on a losing streak with Obamacare being a huge turd burger to swallow.
One of the anti-federalist complaints against ratification of the Constitution was that it set a MINIMUN number of people represented by each congressman rather than a MAXIMUM, leaving no limit to the size of each congressional district in terms of population, meaning no limit to the diminishing of each one of us in being able to have our views heard by Congress. Until about 100 years ago, the congress was expanded after every census. That’s a big part of our problem today – congressman represent businesses, unions, etc., not individuals.
Love the graphic.
“…those in the media promising a massive blue wave (Texas primaries anyone?) come November will be forced to contend with data that suggests that this blue wave is nothing more than an over-hyped trickle.”
It’s deja vu all over again. Cue the weeping talking heads, gnashing teeth op-eds, and wailing resist tantrums in the streets.
Season of the witch.