Does Marco Rubio have a path to victory?
January 07, 2016
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Two recent discussions lay out a path to victory for Marcio Rubio in the 2016 Presidential election. The New York Sun's Conrad Black even writes that the presidential election is Marco Rubio's to lose.
According to Black, the Republicans have an advantage in the general election, whoever wins the nomination:
a party has won three consecutive presidential elections only when the incumbent was very popular at the end of the second term or when there were unusual encumbrances to a change.It is fair to say that Barack Obama is not very popular. According to Gallup, his approval rating is below average for President entering their eighth year in office. "Unusual encumbrances to a change" is an awkward formulation, but there is nothing obvious at present. So Black gives the nod to the Republicans.