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Economy Tag

Minimum wage hikes sound great on the surface, but as we've been reporting here at LI, such hikes tend to do the opposite of their proponents' stated intention.  From forcing businesses to fire employees, cut hours, and find technological replacements for workers, minimum wage hikes are counter-productive, even destructive to low-income workers. For example, a new study from Seattle shows that "there was almost no effect on workers' average total earnings" due to a combination of factors including fewer hours and a more difficult time finding a second job to make up those lost hours. The Washington Post reports:
[T]he actual benefits to workers might have been minimal, according to a group of economists whom the city commissioned to study the minimum wage and who presented their initial findings last week.

We've been hearing a lot about the movement toward a cashless world, and Sweden now appears to be leading the race to become completely cashless. The Guardian reports:
“I don’t use cash any more, for anything,” said Louise Henriksson, 26, a teaching assistant. “You just don’t need it. Shops don’t want it; lots of banks don’t even have it. Even for a candy bar or a paper, you use a card or phone.” Swedish buses have not taken cash for years, it is impossible to buy a ticket on the Stockholm metro with cash, retailers are legally entitled to refuse coins and notes, and street vendors – and even churches – increasingly prefer card or phone payments. According to central bank the Riksbank, cash transactions made up barely 2% of the value of all payments made in Sweden last year – a figure some see dropping to 0.5% by 2020. In shops, cash is now used for barely 20% of transactions, half the number five years ago, and way below the global average of 75%.

I am taking a few moments from my "Crazy California" and science coverage today to hit a topic that will be critically important in November: Jobs. Yesterday, the media coverage I followed was focused on San Jose. Interestingly, for those of us who have been following the Facebook trending news saga, San Jose completely failed to appear in the trending items. In fact, here is today's list: LI #53 Facebook Tredning And while I am grateful to see news about the Great Pyramid, I also noticed that another critical story is also absent:

Most people can do without certain luxuries and conveniences for a significant amount of time. Temporary power and internet outages due to storms are common in many parts of America and people get through it. Food on the other hand, is a different story. As any student of history can tell you, when people can't find food things get ugly pretty fast. Venezuela is quickly entering that danger zone. Reuters reports:
'We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency Venezuelan security forces fired teargas at protesters chanting "We want food!" near Caracas' presidential palace on Thursday, the latest street violence in the crisis-hit OPEC nation.

Being replaced by machines is probably not what the Raise the Wage! crowd had in mind, but here we are. Again. For almost two years, McDonald's has been flirting with automated ordering machines, and has introduced the new mechanical overlords to some of its locations. I blogged about this back in 2014:

The American economy is off to a horrible start in 2016. GDP grew a measly 0.5 percent in the first quarter of this year. No wonder Democrats want to talk about transgender people and bathrooms. Bloomberg reports:
U.S. Economy Expands to 0.5% Pace, Weakest in Two Years The U.S. economy expanded in the first quarter at the slowest pace in two years as American consumers reined in spending and companies tightened their belts in response to weak global financial conditions and a plunge in oil prices.

New York's new minimum wage is being cited as the main reason that a popular Albany restaurant is closing its doors after serving the community for decades. Mental Recession reports:
Beloved Upstate Restaurant Closes, Cites Minimum Wage Hike As Major Reason An Albany area fish fry restaurant is closing its doors after nearly 70 years in business, and the owner is pointing to New York’s $15 minimum wage as a major reason for his establishment’s downfall. Bob and Ron’s Fish Fry, described by New York Upstate as an “Albany institution” featuring “the best fish fry in the Capital Region,” announced they’d be closing their doors in less than two weeks.

Obama signed an Executive Order (EO) on Friday that affects American businesses and the free market (what's left of it, anyway). Obama has ordered the FCC to open up set-top cable boxes to competition, and he more broadly ordered executive agencies to search for ways that they can ensure competition among free market businesses and corporations. The set-top box order centers on the way that cable companies lease these boxes to consumers, charging a monthly fee for their use.  Harkening back to the days when people had to rent phones from the telephone company, the order intends to correct the problem as was done in telephone case. The White House writes:
That’s why today the President announced that his Administration is calling on the FCC to open up set-top cable boxes to competition. This will allow for companies to create new, innovative, higher-quality, lower-cost products. Instead of spending nearly $1,000 over four years to lease a set of behind-the-times boxes, American families will have options to own a device for much less money that will integrate everything they want — including their cable or satellite content, as well as online streaming apps — in one, easier-to-use gadget.
On its face, this doesn't seem to be a problem and may even be a good idea for those still using cable, but this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Last week, CBS aired a special report on the missing or redacted 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission's report that might implicate Saudi Arabia in the 9/11 attacks.  In the CBS report, former Senator and former Florida Governor Bob Graham (D-FL) restated his long-held view that these 28 pages should be declassified. From the transcript of the CBS report entitled "28 Pages":
. . . [T]he White House and intelligence officials are reviewing whether to declassify one of the country's most sensitive documents -- known as the "28 pages." They have to do with 9/11 and the possible existence of a Saudi support network for the hijackers while they were in the U.S. For 13 years, the 28 pages have been locked away in a secret vault. Only a small group of people have ever seen them. Tonight, you will hear from some of the people who have read them and believe, along with the families of 9/11 victims that they should be declassified. Bob Graham: I think it is implausible to believe that 19 people, most of whom didn't speak English, most of whom had never been in the United States before, many of whom didn't have a high school education-- could've carried out such a complicated task without some support from within the United States.
Graham, who has seen the 28 pages and has been trying to get the pages declassified since 2003, has to be careful about what he says, but he is confident that there is connection.

The State of New York just passed two significant measures. One is a new family leave policy and the other is a new minimum wage of $15 an hour. Liberals are pretty stoked about both items. Smaller businesses, particularly in hard-hit upstate NY, not so much. Expect the people intended to benefit -- lower wage workers in marginal industries -- to be hardest hit because there will be fewer jobs. Entry level positions, where many people get their start, will be harder to come by. New York Mag reports:
New York Just Created a Revolutionary New Family-Leave Policy You say you want a revolution? A political, social, economic policy upheaval that will dramatically alter the playing field for millions of Americans by significantly reducing economic and gender inequality?

Early this week, while most people were focusing on the Nevada GOP caucus, CNN held another Democratic Party town hall event. When Bernie Sanders was confronted about the viability of his proposals, he got a little cranky. Jack Heretik reports at the Washington Free Beacon:
Bernie Sanders Tries To Defend Viability Of His Socialist Proposals Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) dismissed criticism of his socialist economic proposals as coming from Hillary Clinton’s campaign during CNN’s Democratic Town Hall Tuesday night.

We've become accustomed to hearing from the increasingly shrill fringe left about the greedy evils of the top 1%.  However, it's important not to lose sight of the fact that Americans are a generous and charitable people . . . including the most wealthy among us. The Washington Examiner reports that of the world's charitable donations an entire third comes from America's top 1%.
Americans are a charitable group, in fact the most generous in the world, according to the new Almanac of American Philanthropy. In a first of its kind survey, the Almanac found that Americans out-donate Britain and Canada two-to-one and nations like Italy and Germany 20-to-one. What's more, more than half of every single income class except those earning less than $25,000 donate to charity. The much maligned top 1 percent in the U.S. economy fork over one third of all donations made. Even in death.

During his State of the Union address, Obama asserted that anyone portraying the American economy as bad was "peddling fiction". Perhaps he can explain why our stock market was outperforming expectations . . . in terms of how much it dropped?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped almost 400 points Friday, falling below 16,000, as oil prices sank below $30 a barrel. The index fell to 15,988 at the closing bell, down more than 390, or 2.39%. "Oil is the root cause of today," said Dan Farley, regional investment strategist at the Private Client Reserve at U.S. Bank. "People are uncertain, and when they're uncertain they're scared."
Because our economy is tied to the global market, it is worth noting that the Royal Bank of Scotland just issued a dire warning to its investors that can be summed up in two words: "Sell everything".
RBS urged investors to sell everything amid warnings that oil prices could fall to the lowest level in 17 years which may spark a meltdown as severe as the 2008 financial crisis.

Remember when Obama and all of his allies in politics and media told us that the Affordable Care Act would save money for working families and the country? It turns out that promise was as good as the one about keeping your doctor. The truth is that the cost of Obamacare is going up pretty much everywhere. Daniel Bassali reports at the Washington Free Beacon:
Our National Obamacare Nightmare Despite enjoying a victory in the Supreme Court this summer, the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama’s signature domestic law, has suffered through a year of bad news. While the administration has touted that nearly 12 million people have gained access to health care insurance, premiums for most Americans are expected to increase in 2016. Insurance companies are seeking rate increases between 20 and 40 percent.

Art Laffer, famed member of President Reagan's Economic Policy Advisory Board, has co-authored, with Stephen Moore, an article for Investor's Business Daily in which they assert that Rand Paul and Ted Cruz have the "best" tax proposals. They begin with a bit of a warning to those serious about tax reform:
All the GOP tax plans look good to us — though some are admittedly better than others. The danger now is that too many conservatives have formed a circular firing squad and are shooting down nearly all proposals on purity grounds or attacking trivial differences. This is the surest way to derail tax reform altogether. If Ronald Reagan, Jack Kemp and Bill Bradley had held to such a "my way or the highway" approach, the epic 1986 tax reform that collapsed tax rates to 15% and 28% never would have happened.
That said, Laffer and Moore continue by narrowing their focus to Rand and Cruz:
Which brings us to Rand Paul and Ted Cruz. The two of us helped craft their low-rate flat tax plans. The plans are similar: Paul's rates are 14.5% on business net sales and wages and salaries. Cruz has a 16% business net sales tax and a 10% wage and salary tax.

President Obama's approval ratings may be circling the drain, but a new Gallup poll released today shows that they're slightly less terrible than usual. Small miracles? American approval of Obama's handling of health care and the economy just clocked in at 44%, which represents a three-year high in both categories. The last time Obama did this well in the polls, he had just been elected to his second term; back then, an anemic 44% still represented a significant boost over the President's first term numbers. Gallup explains the trend:
Americans have not been as approving of Obama's performance on the economy since November 2012, just after the president was re-elected to a second term. The 44% he received then was similar to the 45% right before Election Day. Both scores were major improvements from the sub-40% ratings he'd received during much of his first term -- including a record low of 26% in August 2011 after contentious negotiations with Congress to raise the debt limit. Obama's best marks on the economy -- between 55% and 59% -- came during his first few months in office. Over the past three years, Obama's economic approval rating has fluctuated, reaching a low of 33% in 2014.

Hillary Clinton visited Alabama this weekend and while nearly all of the early media reports are about her absurd claim that Republicans are trying to disenfranchise black voters, it was her remarks about the economy that were truly stunning. In the Associated Press video below, Hillary suggests that it is always Republican presidents who create financial messes which have to then be cleaned up by Democrats. She touts the financial record of her husband before accusing Bush of leaving Obama with a massive debt. She goes on to praise Obama and claim that he never gets enough credit. Clinton conveniently leaves out the role Democrats played in the 2008 financial crisis when they forced banks to give home loans to unqualified borrowers. She also neglects to mention the massive debt accumulated by Obama.

The latest jobs report released today could spell trouble for the US economy---and workers. According to analysts, the economy underperformed in terms of jobs created. Experts surveyed by CNNMoney estimated that we would see a net gain of 204,000 jobs in this report; gains in excess of 200,000 are considered "healthy," so this was an optimistic prediction. In reality, however, the economy only added 142,000 jobs in September---an "unhealthy" diagnosis. The unemployment held steady at 5.1%; however, labor force participation rate dropped to 62.4 percent (from 62.6 percent), and the three month average for job creation has stagnated well below 200,000. More via the NY Times:
Friday’s report came just two weeks after the Federal Reserve decided that the recovery was still too frail to risk lifting interest rates from their near-zero level. The latest evidence of a weakening economy may push any rate increase into next year even though the Fed chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, had previously suggested that the central bank was likely to go ahead with a rate increase before year’s end.