Marco Rubio | Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion - Part 4
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Marco Rubio Tag

Welcome to our live coverage of the third night of this year's Republican National Convention! Primetime speeches kick off at 7:30 EST. Watch speakers live and see real time commentary from political media and LI authors. I'll be updating throughout the evening as the situation warrants. Full speeches can be found beneath the Twitter feeds as they're available.

The lineup:

Florida Senator Marco Rubio has decided to run for reelection, he confirmed to Fox News' Chris Wallace on Wednesday. Fox News posted a short clip on Twitter; the full interview will air at 6 pm Eastern Time. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/745621612163039237 “People in politics don’t like to admit that they’ve changed their mind, but I changed my mind, and the people in Florida deserve to know why,” Rubio said, explaining that there were "a lot of reasons."

Donald Trump lashed out at the federal judge presiding over the Trump University fraud case, claiming his Mexican heritage made him ineligible to properly dispense justice. Because of course. Though Trump's verbal assault against Judge Gonzalo Curiel began earlier this year, Trump cranked them to eleven last week. "I’m building a wall. It’s an inherent conflict of interest,” said Trump. Trump also alleged Judge Curiel, "was a former colleague and friend of one of the Trump University plaintiffs’ lawyers," according to the Wall Street Journal. For their part, many a Republican Senator are refusing to condone Trump's judge fight and have gone so far as to condemn his rhetoric.

Ever since it became obvious that Trump would win the GOP nomination (and even before that), we've had the phenomenon of GOP officeholders and/or former rival candidates jumping on the Trump train. Ben Carson was one of the first, but he certainly isn't the last, and the list includes people whose previous criticism of Trump had been remarkably bitter. The latest to support Trump is Marco Rubio, and many people are excoriating him for it (for example, see this from Allahpundit and this by Philip Klein; there are others). Here's an excerpt from the Klein piece, so you can get the flavor of it:
It’s one thing to begrudgingly argue that as dangerous as he thinks a Trump presidency would be, that he thinks a Clinton presidency would be even worse. But to actually say that he would be “honored” by the chance to speak on Trump’s behalf at the GOP convention, and to downplay his previously stated problems with Trump as mere “policy differences,” is to prove the Rubio skeptics right.

Marco Rubio may be out of the 2016 presidential race, but he's making news for a photo op with Felix Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a former CIA operative who famously helped capture the communist revolutionary, right-hand man to ruthless dictators, and mass murderer Che Guevara. (Rodriguez denies actually killing Guevara -- see below.) Telesur reports:
At an event in Miami commemorating the failed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba Sunday, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio paid homage to the 2506 Brigade, which led the assault. Organized by the CIA in 1961, the disastrous invasion was soundly defeated by the Cuban military and its people. The former Republican presidential candidate took the opportunity to pose for a photo with Felix Rodriguez, former CIA agent who was a leader in the planning of the Bay of Pigs.

On the face of it, answering the question as to what happened in the GOP primary in Wisconsin seems like a no-brainer. As Edward Morrissey writes, Trump shot himself in the foot---dissing popular governor Scott Walker, and flubbing abortion questions---and ended up losing by 13 points, 35 to Cruz's 48. To shore up this argument about a Trump reversal in Wisconsin, Morrissey cites a Wisconsin poll from late January and one from late February, the first of which had Trump leading by 6 and the second by 10. So the narrative seems to make sense---that is, until you actually look a bit deeper, when you find that something additional might have been going on.

Marco Rubio may have suspended his presidential campaign but he's still having an impact on the Republican primary process. He wants to hold onto his delegates for a contested convention and as usual, it's all about Trump. NBC News reports:
Rubio Makes Unprecedented Bid to Keep Delegates for Contested Convention Despite suspending his campaign, Sen. Marco Rubio is attempting to keep every delegate he won while running for president. The unusual move reflects preparations for a contested convention this summer — and comes as Donald Trump backed away from an earlier pledge to support the Republican party's nominee if he is treated unfairly after winning more delegates than his rivals.

Tuesday night, a tearful Senator Rubio quoted Proverbs 16:9 and then announced he would be ending his presidential campaign. In the days that followed, Sen. Rubio revealed he wouldn't pursue another government post.

It's Super Tuesday (again) Eve! Tomorrow, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio have will hold their primary elections. Florida and Ohio are winner-take-all states; no delegate splitting in either. Here's the latest from the wild world of campaigns:

Florida's Attorney General endorses Trump

Officials from Marco Rubio's campaign are encouraging Ohio-based supporters to vote for John Kasich in the upcoming primary. Why? Strategic voting -- as it's termed. Rubio is unlikely to cary Ohio, but encouraging supporters to toss their votes behind Kasich might help keep Ohio out of Trump's win column. Kasich, however, is not interested in a Rubio bump:

Welcome to our live coverage of tonight's GOP debate.

How to watch:

When and where is the debate? The Republican debate will be held at the University of Miami at 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday. How can I watch it? It will be broadcast live on CNN, as well as live-streamed online at CNN.com and across mobile devices for all users without logging in. CNN International and CNN en Espanol will also simulcast the debate. Salem Radio Network will be the exclusive radio provider for the debate. Who will moderate the debate? CNN's Jake Tapper will moderate and CNN's Dana Bash, Salem talk radio host Hugh Hewitt and The Washington Times' Stephen Dinan will join as questioners.

Here's the primary/caucus schedule today, followed by Real Clear politics poll averages:

Mississippi · 40 delegates

Last poll closes at 8:00 PM ET There's only one recent (2/29) poll, showing Trump ahead by 24 points.  Fair to assume Trump will win, but I doubt it's by 24 points.

Michigan · 59 delegates

Last poll closes at 9:00 PM ET Trump ahead by double digits BUT Kasich surging and Rubio falling: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

Idaho · 32 delegates

Last poll closes at 11:00 PM ET Only one recent (2/26) poll, showing Trump ahead by 11 points. Hardly enough evidence to predict an outcome.

Hawaii (caucus) · 19 delegates

Last poll closes at 12:00 AM ET No polling. More to follow.

The Rules Of The Republican Party deal with the organization and operation of the Republican Party, including everything from apportioning delegates to the national convention, to how to change the rules themselves. What if I told you that the RNC had a rule that under some circumstances could result in no candidate's name being placed in nomination so that the Republicans had no nominee; or create a convention deadlock because the only candidate whose name could be placed in nomination could not be nominated because he didn't have a majority of delegates as is required under another rule; or in another scenario only one candidate who didn't even have a majority of delegates would claim the nomination over the objection of the majority of delegates. If you didn't know the names of the candidates or which scenario played out, you'd say "that's absurd, change the rule." That latter scenario may very well play out, and hand Donald Trump the nomination (in the view of his supporters) even if he didn't have a majority of delegates, and even if most delegates didn't want him to be the nominee. It's all because of Rule 40(b).  Which is why if the RNC has any sense, it will change the rule as soon as possible to avoid an absurd and the undemocratic (small "d") result.

Marco Rubio spoke at CPAC this morning. Based on the video, it looked like a full house and enthusiastic crowd. The Washington Times reports:
Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida on Saturday told the conservative grassroots that the country’s young people won’t have a chance if Democrats keep control of the White House — or if the conservative movement is “hijacked” by someone who’s not a conservative. “Being a conservative can never be about simply an attitude. Being a conservative cannot simply be about how long you’re willing to scream, how angry you’re willing to be, or how many names you’re willing to call people,” Mr. Rubio said at the 2016 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), to sustained applause. “I think there’s a growing amount of confusion about what conservatism is,” he said. “And it is time for us to understand that conservatism is not built on personalities. Conservatism is not simply built on how angry you might seem from time to time.”

While Marco Rubio won his first state (Minnesota) and surged late in Virginia and Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska for a total of four state wins, Donald Trump did very well in the Super Tuesday primaries.  So well, in fact, that conservatives are beginning to search in earnest for a means to win the GOP nomination with a conservative candidate. One such idea is being touted as the "Unity" ticket of Cruz and Rubio (or Rubio and Cruz, though this seems less likely). Writing at The Resurgent, Erick Erickson argues for this in stark terms: "Unite or Die."
To truly beat Trump and keep his supporters from completely fleeing, Trump must be beaten in the primaries, not on the floor of the convention. And it is still mathematically possible, but it requires Cruz to win Florida, not Rubio. All of this talk by Rubio voters about later states, closed primaries, and favorability ignores voter psychology and, frankly, ignores the fact that Marco Rubio’s Gang of Eight position has poisoned the well too much for too many Republican voters. It will, in fact, go down as one of the worse political miscalculations in the last quarter century. All of this talk by Rubio voters ignores that Rubio and Cruz together can win Florida and Ohio, but divided cannot and only increase the odds of either a Trump nomination or the delegitimization of the process by which the GOP will pick its nominee.

Even before yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries, it seemed that Cruz and Rubio were locked in a game of Chicken, and it promised to be a bumpy ride. The same holds true now:
The game of chicken, also known as the hawk-dove game or snowdrift game, is an influential model of conflict for two players in game theory. The principle of the game is that while each player prefers not to yield to the other, the worst possible outcome occurs when both players do not yield. The name "chicken" has its origins in a game in which two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash, but if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a "chicken," meaning a coward.
Although there are five players now left in the GOP primary, one is dominant (Trump) and the two second-place candidates have been trading leads (Cruz and Rubio), with the other two (Kasich and Carson) very far behind. Back when the game featured far more players, the GOP race seemed a variation of the Tragedy of the Commons:

For months now, Donald Trump has spouted the same line on immigration, promising to build a border wall and deport people here illegally.  Last night, he admitted he would not deport the 11 million people in the United States illegally.  It was posturing. Trump appeared on Sean Hannity's show on Fox News.  Here's the video:

Donald Trump launched his campaign popularity with a hard line on immigration, not limited to The Wall. It struck a chord with the electorate, as I noted in a guest column at National Review on July 13, 2015, Trump’s Lesson: Voters Are Furious about Illegal Immigration:
.... something happened on the way to the denunciations and purges [of Trump]. Kate Steinle was murdered in San Francisco, a sanctuary city. Steinle was killed in broad daylight on a popular pedestrian pier in a business and tourist district, by an illegal immigrant with a long criminal record who had been deported five times and recently was released from custody…. In the wake of the murder of Kate Steinle, many Republican candidates have denounced the sanctuary-cities agenda. There is talk of withholding funding from cities that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration authorities. But who among the Republican candidates has stood side by side with the families who have lost loved ones to illegal-immigrant criminals? Trump did….”
Since then, immigration has continued to be the rocket fuel in Trump's campaign.