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2016 Republican Primary Tag

Posted by Amy Miller on June 30, 2015 23 Comments
We'll be covering the announcement live here. He's supposed to kick off any time, and already correspondents are describing the mood in the venue as "a madhouse." Sounds apropos, considering Christie's tendency to buck at the rhetorical trends his colleagues embrace. Live stream hat tip to Save Jersey (UPDATE: the current embed has the full announcement and pre- and post-game coverage): We're off! Kicking things off is a teacher, friend...and registered Democrat. Will this end up on the union websites first, or the conservative ones?

Posted by Mike LaChance on June 29, 2015 23 Comments
The field of Republicans running for president is about to get a bit more crowded as New Jersey governor Chris Christie is expected to announce his bid to run on Tuesday. Bloomberg reports:
Chris Christie Said to Plan Tuesday Announcement of Presidential Run New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will join the crowded Republican 2016 field Tuesday, two people with knowledge of his plans said. Christie, 52, will cap months of speculation with an announcement in his hometown of Livingston, said the people, who asked for anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak before his speech. While Christie previously said he hadn’t made up his mind, he’s spent months making policy speeches and holding meetings in key primary states including New Hampshire and Iowa. He’s traveled as “honorary chairman” of Leadership Matters for America, his political action committee. Samantha Smith, a committee spokeswoman, didn’t immediately return a telephone call seeking comment.

Posted by Mike LaChance on June 27, 2015 8 Comments
A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News found that a handful of Republican presidential candidates have seen an increase in support but one of the the biggest jumps went to Carly Fiorina:
GOP 2016 Hopefuls Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee Gain Ground in WSJ/NBC News Poll Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina all gained significant ground with Republican primary voters in the weeks since they announced their candidacy for the party’s presidential nomination, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul moved in the opposite direction over the same period, with the share of likely GOP primary voters who said they could see themselves backing him falling from 59% in late April to 49% in mid-June. The decline came as Mr. Paul battled fellow Republicans over his effort to end the National Security Agency’s bulk collection of phone records... The biggest movers in the new survey were Ms. Fiorina and Messrs. Carson and Huckabee. The share of Republican primary voters who said they were open to supporting Ms. Fiorina, a former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Co., jumped from 17% in April to 31% in June, about even with the 29% who said they weren't open to supporting her.

Posted by Amy Miller on June 27, 2015 17 Comments
This week's SCOTUS opinions have sent American political discourse through all areas of policy, off the pavement, and into the weeds. What's next in the fight to repeal Obamacare? Does the gay marriage ruling mean that my pastor will have to perform same sex ceremonies? They're good questions (and fair questions), and we're right to float them. Gay marriage dominated the end of the week, but the Obamacare debate is still at the forefront of discussion; namely, how we can expect to dismantle this monster of a health care law given this week's latest Supreme wrinkle? Jeb Bush has an idea---and it may put him at odds with other members of the Republican Party. Bush appeared on Hugh Hewitt's radio show this week and fielded a controversial question: if elected President, would he support using the "nuclear option" to eliminate the filibuster if it meant the end of Obamacare? At first, Bush seemed to want to focus on a policy solution that could unite Republicans, but when pressed, said he would consider using the controversial tactic. Via Bloomberg:
Hewitt pressed Bush, pointing out that Republicans are unlikely to get 60 Senate to defeat a filibuster if Democrats stick together and block efforts to repeal Obamacare, as they have done for years. "At that point," Hewitt said, "would you at least be open to making the argument that on this issue, before it gets its tentacles too deep, that we break the filibuster and ram through a repeal and replacement?"

Posted by Jay Caruso on June 26, 2015 8 Comments
Polling is to politics as statistics are to baseball. Everybody is always looking at them, analyzing them, doing deep dives into the data and ultimately coming up with some way to determine if the numbers they see are a good predictor of future events. In baseball, you have a better chance than in politics. In politics, particularly early on in the process, you're just as likely to predict who can win a race by throwing darts just as much as you can the polls. For example, Donald Trump has gained on Jeb Bush in a matchup for the New Hampshire primary:
Jeb Bush narrowly leads the field in the state set to host the first primary of the 2016 presidential campaign, but Donald Trump's gains in the state suggest the billionaire businessman is establishing a following in New Hampshire.

The new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary poll finds Trump at 11%, just behind Bush at 16% in a wide open contest for the Republican nomination for president. Bush and Trump are followed by Rand Paul at 9%, Scott Walker at 8%, and Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio both at 6%. Ben Carson and Chris Christie each have 5% support.

As the low numbers at the top of the pack indicate, the field is far from settled. Twenty-one percent say they don't know which of the 19 candidates tested in the poll they'd support, and overall, 75% say they're not committed to any candidate.

Posted by Amy Miller on June 24, 2015 15 Comments
It's official---Bobby Jindal is running for President of the United States. Today's initial announcement was quieter than the many that have come before it. There was no stadium, no enthusiastic crowd, no Instagram enthusiasts---just a single camera, and a conversation between Jindal and his wife and children. It was...different. Watch: The crowds and flashing lights will come later---his more formal announcement will take place tonight at 5:45 EST, just outside of New Orleans. Bobby’s son Shaan will be offering a behind the scenes look at the announcement on Twitter's new live streaming app, Periscope. You can watch that stream here.

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on June 24, 2015 32 Comments
Ah yes, the media and gun control. Senator Cruz joined PBS host Tavis Smiley Tuesday. Smiley seized the opportunity to peg Sen. Cruz on gun control. "To me and to others who've seen this, it seemed in bad taste, but maybe that's my assessment," Smiley said. "We all know what happened in Charleston the other day, and you were on the campaign trail after this happened, here's what you said on the campaign trail." Smiley then showed Sen. Cruz a clip bearing a HuffPo watermark, dated June 19 when Cruz was addressing a crowd in Iowa. "We need a second amendment, the right to keep and bear arms. You know the great thing about the state of Iowa, I'm pretty sure y'all define 'gun control' the same way we do in Texas -- hittin' what you aim at," Cruz explained as the audience chuckled. "Gun control is hitting what you aim at. Those comments were made after this tragedy the other day in South Carolina the other day, was that in bad taste?" Smiley asked.

Posted by Amy Miller on June 22, 2015 15 Comments
Donald Trump's big presidential announcement mostly went over like a lead balloon here at Legal Insurrection. For me, it felt like just another announcement; in terms of political theatre it was huge, but in terms of substance...to be honest, I'm still distracted by all the theatre. Professor Jacobson did a radio hit after the announcement, and described the impending Trump Candidacy like this:
“Donald Trump entering the race is pretty much like somebody throwing a hand grenade into the room. He is going to get attention, he’s probably going to cause some casualties, and he is going to absorb a lot of the oxygen in the room.”
Remember what I said about political theatre? This is what that looks like---someone who comes in and sucks the life out of the cycle just by being there. This weekend, Neil Cavuto hosted a panel for a debate on whether or not America "needs to hear" Donald Trump's message on wealth. Watch:

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on June 20, 2015 19 Comments
Earlier this year, Rasmussen released a poll showing that only 31% of Americans trust the IRS to enforce tax laws fairly.  Given the targeting of conservatives, reports of refunds going to illegals who didn't pay taxes, and the sharing of confidential tax payer information with the White House, it's surprising the percentage is that high. It seems clear that there is growing dissatisfaction with the IRS and with the nation's ridiculously complex tax laws.  At 74,608 pages, the U. S. tax code is both ponderous and confusing. With all of the new taxes buried in ObamaCare alone, the tax code has grown by nearly 3,000 pages since 2010. In response to all of this, Americans are more ready than ever for substantial tax reform, and hearing the call, Rand Paul released a new video outlining his new tax plan that appears to be a hybrid of the fair tax and the flat tax. Here's the statement from his website:
I stand with Rand in his fight to defeat the Washington Machine and drive a stake through the heart of the IRS by: Ending the workers tax: This plan will end the FICA payroll tax, the largest tax for many working Americans. It goes to zero. Eliminating the headaches and complications in filing federal taxes by allowing every taxpayer to file a simple, one-page return with a low and fair tax rate of 14.5%, saving American families over $2 TRILLION in the first 10 years;

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on June 17, 2015 19 Comments
Governor Bush joined Jimmy Fallon and The Roots to "Slow Jam The News" Tuesday night. The sketch geared towards newsy, political types, has featured Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, Brian Williams, and even President Obama. Real news, or more accurately -- talking points, are sandwiched between Jimmy Fallon's pun-y innuendo and The Roots' slow jams. Typically, the extra figure in the equation is mostly pedantic, but finds a way to have a little bit of fun with the schtick. When Fallon made a 47% joke, Romney retorted, "that's a low blow, but it's pretty funny." So how did Jeb do?

Posted by Mike LaChance on June 17, 2015 22 Comments
We interrupt your regular programming about Jeb Bush and Donald Trump to bring you this report about the Republican nomination for 2016. Scott Walker now leads the field. Jonathan Easley of The Hill:
Walker leads nationally in new poll Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads a tight field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling. Walker is alone in first place in the poll with 17 percent, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 15 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 13 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 12 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 11 percent. That’s a big jump for Bush, who was at 11 percent support in the same poll last month. However, Bush will begin his quest for the GOP nomination with a negative favorability rating among Republicans, according to the poll. Only 37 percent said they have a positive view of Bush, against 40 percent who have a negative view. Bush is dragged down by those who identify as “very conservative,” with only 32 percent of those saying they have a positive view of Bush. Bush is the top choice among self-described “moderate” Republican primary voters.

Posted by Amy Miller on June 16, 2015 48 Comments
Cue the confetti cannon... Donald Trump is running for president. Today during a rally at Trump Tower in New York City, Trump became the 2,347th Republican to declare candidiacy in the 2016 primary. Via ABC News:
"We are going to make our country great again," Trump, who turned 69 on Saturday, declared. He added, "I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created." In 2012, Trump launched a Presidential exploratory committee and visited key battleground states before bowing out in May 2011. This time though, Trump says he’s in it for the long haul; he plans to step away from the day to day management of The Trump Organization, and hand the reigns over to his children: Ivanka, Donald Jr, and Eric. He has also chosen to step aside from his hit reality show, “The Apprentice." "They all said, a lot of the pundits on television, well, Donald will never run, and one of the main reasons is he's private and he's probably not as successful as everybody thinks," said Trump, who has never held public office before. "So I said to myself, you know, nobody is ever going to know unless I run because I'm really proud of my success."
Video via TMZ (who I'm assuming is excited for the sheer amount of content they're about to encounter):

Posted by Amy Miller on June 16, 2015 38 Comments
This morning, presidential hopeful Carly Fiorina went were many Republicans fear to go, and even fewer venture in hopes of making strides with new demographics---the set of The View. I think she may have gained ground. Judging from my own experiences and conversations, I'm comfortable with saying that even conservative women like the idea of a woman running for president. It has nothing to do with post-modern feminism, or promoting candidates based on gender, or secret man-hate---it's about not feeling the need to act the contrarian over actual progress. If she did make strides during this interview, she earned them. Out of the gate, the hosts wanted to know about her lack of political experience, and she gave a great answer:
"I understand how the economy works, I understand how the world works, I understand how bureaucracies work, which is what our government's become, I understand technology, which is kind of important now, and I understand leadership. I think this election's gonna be about leadership."
Watch the rest (h/t Tom Szold, National Political Director of Carly for America:

Posted by Kemberlee Kaye on June 15, 2015 4 Comments
The event that once marked the official beginning of GOP presidential run will not take place this year. "We set the table and they didn't come to dinner," Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann reported The Des Moines Register. The Iowa Straw Poll was far from an accurate scientific poll. Declaring the champion the candidate who spent the most to win, candidates vying for national publicity would drop major bank for the "______ wins Iowa Straw Poll" headlines and the subsequent appearance of a legitimately strong campaign. In 2011, Mitt Romney declined to participate and this year, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Mike Huckabee announced they too would bypass the Iowa fun. The straw poll was one massive fundraising event for the Republican Party of Iowa. It's not entirely surprising campaigns recognized skipping the over-hyped pay-to-play event might be a better utilization of their time and resources. Howard Kurtz explained the Iowa Straw poll sham during his broadcast in May: According to the Des Moines Register, there were three reasons the straw poll was nixed this year:

Posted by Jay Caruso on June 15, 2015 35 Comments
It seems every time you turn around, the Hillary Clinton campaign team is attempting to copy Marco Rubio. She scheduled her official campaign announcement the day after him. On Saturday during a campaign event (some of her supporters have laughably attempted to claim this was the "official official" announcement), she brought up a theme of 'yesterday', using the song of the same name by the Beatles to proclaim her GOP opponents were all about the past. Ironically, it was a similar theme that Marco Rubio used during his campaign launch. During his announcement he said:
"Just yesterday, a leader from yesterday began a campaign for president by promising to take us back to yesterday."
Because of that, Rubio's team was ready to respond to Hillary and did so with this ad:

Posted by Mike LaChance on June 14, 2015 34 Comments
Jeb Bush is expected to announce his run for president tomorrow, and his team has already released their first video and are touting it as Bush introducing himself to the American people. The spot focuses on Bush's time as governor of Florida and hits specific notes on women, minorities, the disabled, education, and jobs. Take a look below, hat tip to The Shark Tank: We decided to use the campaign logo as the featured image of this post because there's been some buzz about it on Twitter.

Posted by Fuzzy Slippers on June 14, 2015 18 Comments
Love him, hate him, or feel ambivalent toward him, Mitt Romney was "right about everything," and that is standing him in good stead with the GOP.  Indeed, Politico is reporting that Romney is "working to rid the GOP presidential primary of the mayhem that marked his own race":
Mitt Romney is working with an unlikely collaborator — Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire casino mogul who bankrolled Newt Gingrich’s 2012 campaign — in the hopes of ensuring that the GOP primary produces a mainstream conservative without any of the mayhem that marked his own race. The two, who speak monthly, aim to convince the wealthy contributors bankrolling various candidates to work together to avoid the kind of primary election chaos that Romney believes laid the seeds for his defeat in 2012. The former Massachusetts governor is also considering endorsing a candidate to achieve his goal. They’re unmistakable signs of Romney’s newly assertive role in the Republican Party but also of his determination to guarantee the GOP an unbloodied nominee with broad-based appeal.
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