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Syria Tag

Wednesday, I argued that debate over the Syrian refugee crisis detracts from the heart of the issue -- President Obama’s incompetency combatting radical Muslim terrorist cells. Had this administration some semblance of strategy or will to win, the contentious and overly politicized refugee debate would be nonexistent. There would be no need for for the masses to flee heinously violent Islamist terrorists.
The better discussion here is not refugees that will take at least 18 months to vet, but how an absence of overall strategy has resulted in an emboldened ISIS. Speaking from Turkey earlier this week, President Obama renewed his commitment to stay the course with the current strategy to fight ISIS (whatever that is) and admitted he has no interest in, “pursuing some notion of American leadership or America winning,” an attitude that become more obvious by the day.
Prior to Thursday's House vote to halt President Obama's Syrian refugee proposal, Rep. Trey Gowdy also argued that, "the people in charge of our foreign policy seem more interested in treating the symptoms," rather than addressing why thousands are fleeing their homeland.

In the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, Americans are looking toward their elected leadership for a way forward in the plan to defeat ISIS. One of the plans put forward by the GOP-led Congress is to enhance security measures and to temporarily halt settlements for the incoming Syrian and Iraqi refugees, and to also require the FBI and Department of Homeland Security to perform individual background checks. The White House has reported that President Obama has made it clear that he will veto the House-led legislation if it arrives at his desk. From Fox News:
"Given the lives at stake and the critical importance to our partners in the Middle East and Europe of American leadership in addressing the Syrian refugee crisis ... [Obama] would veto the bill."
But even some Democrats are showing defiance towards the president's strategy and are aligning themselves with the GOP on this particular issue. The Blue Dog Democrats, who are more conservative-leaning, will back the legislation.

Wednesday, Bloomberg released a poll that captured national attitudes on America's commitment to take in 10,000 Syrian refugees. In the wake of Friday's Paris attacks, 53% of Americans polled opposed continuation of plans to assist in the resettling of Syrian nationals seeking refugee status. According to Bloomberg, "Just 28 percent would keep the program with the screening process as it now exists, while 11 percent said they would favor a limited program to accept only Syrian Christians while excluding Muslims, a proposal Obama has dismissed as “shameful” and un-American." Mirroring the sentiments found in the Bloomberg poll, a bevy of Republican governors also indicated unwillingness to accept a portion of Syrian refugees. As we discussed earlier this week, while Governors do not have legal authority to determine what individuals gain entrance into the United States, they can complicate the resettlement process by refusing to cooperate with federal authorities. Also at question is the vetting process. As with all visa or immigrant petitions issued by the federal government, the vetting process takes awhile. Applicants are run through FBI background checks, health screens, interviews, and other scrutiny before receiving an opportunity to request entry to the United States. For those seeking refugee status, the wait time clocks in at about 18 months. Caps are set on the number of refugees to be admitted by region. Similar caps apply to other visa types. According to the Department of State, 70,000 individuals were admitted under refugee status in 2013, only 36 of which were Syrian nationals. In 2012, only 31 of 76,000 refugees were Syrian. So why all the fuss now?

A growing list of mostly Republican Governors sent open letters to the federal government on Monday, announcing that because of the terrorist attacks in Paris, France, their states would not accept refugees from Syria, and urging the federal government to cease any efforts to bring Syrian refugees to the United States unless better security procedures could be implemented. The most updated list, according to CNN, of Governors sending these letters include those representing Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, and the lone Democrat on the list thus far, New Hampshire. The main cause for concern was the fact that at least one of the terrorists involved in the attack on Paris had entered the country by posing as a Syrian refugee, and that a terrorist could take similar advantage of the refugee crisis to enter America. As Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) noted in his letter, "American humanitarian compassion could be exploited to expose Americans to similar deadly danger."

FBI Director admits feds can't properly vet the Syrian refugees

Over the weekend the U.S. military completed its second arms delivery to the Syrian Arab Coalition. The supplies were delivered to Erbil and then carried west. The Syrian Arab Coalition is an "umbrella group" consisting of 5000 Arab forces that have joined together with Kurdish fighters to take on the Islamic State, or ISIS. The first "drop" benefiting the Coalition signified the U.S. pivot away from a "train and equip" strategy and toward a strategy that relies heavily on using existing forces to cut away at ISIS strongholds. More via the Wall Street Journal:
The first delivery, consisting mostly of small arms ammunition, was conducted by air on Oct. 11. The arrival of the second batch of ammunition, this time by land, suggests the coalition is performing well enough against Islamic State that the U.S. is willing to continue the relationship. Although the coalition is comprised mostly of Arab groups, many work in conjunction with Kurdish forces, known to be some of the most effective fighters against Islamic State.

Late yesterday the Pentagon announced that it launched a drone strike against Islamic State terrorist Mohammed Emwazi, the man who served as the "face" of the group's gruesome and infamous beheading videos. Emwazi, also known as "Jihadi John," was wounded a year ago during airstrikes in Anbar Province that killed 10 terrorists and wounded at least 40 others. Emwazi had joined tribal leaders from around the region in a bunker near the Iraqi-Syrian border to pledge their allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. Intelligence following the strikes was muddied, but officials believed that Emwazi was taken to a local hospital before being returned to ISIS headquarters. Over the past year, western officials have conducted extensive surveillance in an effort to determine Emwazi's whereabouts---and if reports are correct, they finally found him. Yesterday's strike hit outside of the de facto ISIS capital of Raqqa in northern Syria. Officials have yet to confirm whether or not Emwazi died in the attack; Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said, "We are assessing the results of tonight’s operation and will provide additional information as and where appropriate.” A U.S. senior official told CNN that authorities are confident that the strike was successful; a second source said that authorities positively identified Emwazi before they launched the drone at the vehicle Emwazi was riding in.

Struggling under a record 181,000 migrants arriving into Germany just in October, many are calling for a limit to the highest refugee flow into Europe since World War ll. Traveling recently from Amsterdam through Germany and Austria, into Budapest, Hungary, I witnessed the mass migration in Germany in several towns. I spoke to residents, shopkeepers, tour guides, restaurateurs, and bar keepers about the immigrants in several towns I traveled. In every discussion, they expressed concern, dismay, and fear at what will happen to their country with the inflow of Muslim migrants.  In some German towns, police recommend separating Christian and Muslim immigrants. Fights regularly break out involving hundreds of immigrants at a time in the housing facilities. There are reports in German newspapers that police are overwhelmed. Most expressed frustration and a disconnect with their politicians, who claim Germany can handle the immigrants. The German people aren’t so sure about the flow of so many new foreign arrivals from such a different culture, and say their country lacks the ability to accommodate them.

This week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Washington for his first meeting with President Barack Obama since the passage of the Iran nuclear deal. It was their first face-to-face conversation in over a year, and while DC journalists largely pitched the meeting as a welcome relief to the normally-tortured U.S.-Israel relations, I wrote yesterday that both leaders appeared almost too careful during the limited time they appeared together before the press. During this week's meeting, Netanyahu reportedly spoke at length with Obama over concerns regarding instability in Syria, and the uncertain (in international relations terms) status of the Golan Heights. This territory is important to Israel---especially now, since Islamic jihadists have gained significant control in bordering, war-torn Syria. Both former Ambassador Michael Oren and former cabinet secretary Zvi Hauser have publicly called for American recognition of Israeli sovereignty of the Golan, saying that it would help stabilize the region. More from the Times of Israel:
Israel claims the western Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six Day War and took steps to formally annex in 1981. The plateau is considered a critical strategic asset for Israel because it overlooks the towns and villages of much of the Galilee.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has concluded that mustard gas was used during a late-August attack on the Syrian town of Marea. The chemical weapon was detected during a battle between Islamic State insurgents and rebel fighters just north of the ISIS stronghold in Aleppo. OPCW's confidential report (the media was given a peek at a summary) shows that at least two people were exposed to "sulfur mustard." What officials don't know is which side unleashed it. Via Reuters:
"It is very likely that the effects of sulfur mustard resulted in the death of a baby," it said. The findings provide the first official confirmation of use of sulfur mustard, commonly known as mustard gas, in Syria since it agreed to destroy its chemical weapons stockpile, which included sulfur mustard. The report did not mention Islamic State, as the fact-finding mission was not mandated to assign blame, but diplomatic sources said the chemical had been used in the clashes between Islamic State and another rebel group taking place in the town at the time.

The small German village of Sumte has approximately 100 local residents but is now slated to receive 750 refugees from Syria and other countries. How is this supposed to work? If you lived in a one bedroom apartment, would you volunteer to take in seven permanent house guests? Andrew Higgins reports at the New York Times:
German Village of 102 Braces for 750 Asylum Seekers SUMTE, Germany — This bucolic, one-street settlement of handsome redbrick farmhouses may for the moment have many more cows than people, but next week it will become one of the fastest growing places in Europe. Not that anyone in Sumte is very excited about it. In early October, the district government informed Sumte’s mayor, Christian Fabel, by email that his village of 102 people just over the border in what was once Communist East Germany would take in 1,000 asylum seekers.

Dear Future Husband: If you ever abscond to Syria to join a motley band of terrorists, I will not come looking for you. The rise of ISIS has inspired some truly ridiculous tales of total and complete insanity taking hold of people not currently living in the sandy hellscape of the Middle East. National Guardsmen, young men, newlyweds, and even schoolgirls have all attempted (some successfully) to break free the chains of democracy and join the cause in places like Syria and Iraq. Most, if all of them, have done so knowing how terribly dangerous it is to even attempt to make friendly contact with ISIS. They also knew (and were enthusiastic about) the terror group's rise in prominence and brutality, and that their tickets were one-way. Of course, if a recent story out of the UK-by-way-of-Syria is correct, some of them are just there to pick up their husbands.

On September 30, Russia broke from existing frameworks when it began its own airstrikes against rebels in Syria. As the airstrikes continued, it became clear that Vladimir Putin's sympathies toward the brutal Assad regime were become manifest in the bombs Russian aircraft dropped not on Assad's strongholds, but on anti-regime rebels backed by the United States and other western coalition forces. Now both Syrian activists and Iranian officials are reporting that over the past few days, Iran has sent over 1,500 fighters into Syria via Damascus; Hezbollah fighters have also made the journey. Officials claim that these fighters are prepping to launch an assault on militants in Aleppo in northern Syria, and that this move has been bolstered by Russian airstrikes. Via Fox News:
"Sending more troops from Hezbollah, and Iran only increases the shelf life of the Syrian regime, which is destined to end," Maj. Jamil Saleh, the leader of Tajammu Alezzah, a CIA-backed Free Syrian Army faction, told the AP. "It will only add more destruction and displacement."

Last Friday, the Pentagon announced its intention to discontinue efforts to create a new, moderate rebel fighting force in Syria as part of the effort to “degrade and defeat” the Islamic State. Instead, officials say that the US will provide equipment and weapons to "vetted Syrian units" so that "over time they can make a concerted push into territory still controlled by ISIL." Has the training program been abandoned? Officials speaking under the condition of anonymity insist that it has not, but today the military airdropped 50 tons of ammunition and grenades into Al-Hasakah province in northern Syria, which tells me that the US has officially moved away from "train and equip" to just "equip." From Fox News:
Coming just two days after the Defense Department announced it was effectively ending its current training program, the airdrop delivery was made Sunday by four C-17 transport aircraft. The 112 pallets contained ammunition for M-16s and AK-47s.

The United States will discontinue its efforts to create a new, moderate rebel fighting force in Syria as part of the effort to "degrade and defeat" the Islamic State, the Pentagon said Friday. Most analysts believe that this reflects a failure of the US's current strategy in the region. That strategy---which focused on training new fighters---drew widespread criticism, particularly from Congress. In a statement to the media, Defense Secretary Ash Carter defended the change in policy by emphasizing the Administration's continued commitment to relying on local forces to get the job done, saying, "I remain convinced that a lasting defeat of ISIL in Syria will depend in part on the success of local, motivated, and capable ground forces. I believe the changes we are instituting today will, over time, increase the combat power of counter-ISIL forces in Syria and ultimately help our campaign achieve a lasting defeat of ISIL." During a brief press conference, Carter cited the work that US forces have done with rebels in northern Syria as an example of what they would like to pursue with other groups in other parts of Syria going forward:

There are certain events when you just remember exactly where you were when you heard the news. I was on stage for a third-grade practice of a school play when a teacher walked into the room (the gym, which also was the school theater and lunch room) and told everyone that Martin Luther King, Jr. had been killed. We were sent home early. I was at my desk using AOL to access the internet (!) when early reports came in of a "small plane" hitting the World Trade Center. And you know the rest. And on October 6, 1973, I woke up expecting to go to Temple for the Yom Kippur holiday. I turned on my clock radio, the old style that had the metal flaps that flipped to change the time. And I heard that Israel had been invaded in what would become known as the Yom Kippur War. The rest of the day is a blur, I don't even remember if we went to Temple. I remember the feeling of helplessness, and the near panic in the community because there was nothing we could do. The anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, in the Hebrew calendar, was commemorated on September 22. The Times of Israel ran an article about A Valley of Tears where Israel stopped Syria in 1973
On October 6, 1973 massive Syrian and Egyptian forces launched a surprise attack on the State of Israel. It was the holiest day of the Jewish year, the Day of Atonement, and Jews all over the country had been fasting and praying since dawn. No one in Israel on that fateful day will ever forget the piercing shriek of sirens which shattered the Yom Kippur silence and called men and women out of their homes and synagogues into uniform.

For all his faults, Vladimir Putin has managed to do the impossible: by ordering rogue airstrikes on non-ISIS strongholds in Syria, he has united the various rebel factions vying for power in the region, and forced Barack Obama and Donald Trump to agree on something. During a press conference last Friday, President Obama told the pool that he was willing to work with Putin in Syria, but only if the resulting plan includes removing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power. He went on to say that Putin's strategy of attempting to unite forces in support of Assad's regime---which directly contradicts US strategy in the region---will result in Russia being stuck in a "quagmire" with no easy exit strategy. This isn't just an easy talking point. Administration officials close to the situation see nothing but disaster:

President Obama has a habit of trying to make himself look like the smartest guy in the room when things aren't going his way and the disaster unfolding in Syria is no exception. Speaking to the press Friday, Obama claimed that Putin is operating in Syria out of weakness and that this is all some sort of ruse on Russia's behalf. Jenna Lifhits of the Washington Free Beacon:
Obama: Putin Sent Military Into Syria ‘Out of Weakness’ Obama echoed the White House narrative that Russia was forced to enter Syria because the Assad regime, a long-time Kremlin client state, is in danger of collapse. “Mr. Putin had to go into Syria not out of strength but out of weakness because his client Mr. Assad was crumbling and it was insufficient for him simply to send them arms and money. Now he’s got to put in his own planes and his own pilots,” Obama said.

As President Obama told the UN General Assembly that the principle of "might is right" was not the answer to the world's problems and then went on raising a toast to President Putin at a luncheon on Wednesday, September 28, Russian Armed forces where busy installing long-range air-defenses, claiming air superiority over area well beyond Syrian air space, denying access to US and NATO already conducting airstrikes against ISIS positions. Jerusalem Post quoted NATO's top commander, General Philip Breedlove saying Russia’s move to deny access to US and NATO forces in the Eastern Mediterranean was a "a growing problem." Russia’s first airstrike targeted non-ISIS Syria rebels rather than the dreaded Islamic State. BBC reports:
[Russia] launched air strikes in Syria for a second day. [Russian air-]strikes reportedly targeted positions in the north-west held by the Army of Conquest rebel alliance. Russia said it had struck four Islamic State (IS) facilities overnight, and destroyed a "terrorist HQ" outside Idlib and a command post near Hama. (…) Russia carried out about 20 missions on Wednesday. The US fears they targeted non-IS opponents of Russia's ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Obama administration's response was prompt and swift, issuing a 'strong statement' reminding Russia that by resorting to violence, it was 'throwing gasoline on fire.' Only thing those generals on Kremlin fear more, is a sternly worded letter from John Kerry.