Forecasting the GOP primary results in New Hampshire
on February 06, 2016
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Iowa and New Hampshire could hardly be more different in the composition of their Republican voting population.
For example, evangelicals make up a huge percentage of the Iowa GOP voters---well over half. Although there are some evangelicals in New Hampshire, it's a lot smaller group than in Iowa:
Four years ago, just 22% of the state’s primary voters described themselves as evangelicals, well below the 57% in Iowa and the lowest rate among swing states. A 2013 Gallup poll ranked New Hampshire as the second least religious state in the country, behind Vermont, based on churchgoing and the importance of religion in daily life. “Candidates definitely tone things down regarding social issues when they come to the state,” said Stephen Scaer, a 52-year-old special-education teacher who helps run a prayer vigil outside a Planned Parenthood clinic in Manchester, N.H., and favors Republican Carly Fiorina. But, he said, “that’s simply pragmatic. If candidates want to win, they have to.”The common wisdom on New Hampshire is that it's fiscally conservative and socially liberal; there are a lot of libertarians there, too ("Live Free or Die" is still alive in New Hampshire).





