Latest Trafalgar Poll for Georgia Runoff Puts Warnock, Ossoff Ahead of Loeffler, Perdue
If the Democrats’ advantage holds, Republicans would lose the Senate.
In a stunning reversal, the Trafalgar Group, which has been one of the most reliable pollsters this election season, released its latest polling numbers for next week’s Georgia Senate runoff showing that the two Democratic challengers – Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff – are now leading the incumbent Republican senators – Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
Our new @trafalgar_group 2020 #GASen #Runoff #poll (12/23-27) shows a lead shift after the week of the #stimulusbill:
Runoff
50.4% @Ossoff,
47.7% @PerdueSenate,
1.9% Und,Runoff (special)
49.6% @ReverendWarnock
48.8% @KLoeffler,
1.6% Und,See Report: https://t.co/Nju3xQEbmw pic.twitter.com/yIdoGDzTwW
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) December 29, 2020
The change is especially dramatic because less than two weeks ago both Republicans held an advantage over their challengers. Ossoff now leads Perdue by about the same amount he trailed the senator in the previous poll. Warnock, on the other hand narrowly leads Loeffler, but wiped out a nearly a 7 point deficit.
Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s chief pollster, attributes the swing to “GOP Senators not immediately backing @realDonaldTrump’s call to raise the payments from $600 to $2k the day before Christmas Eve.” He noted sardonically that this “isn’t something #swingvoters like very much.”
If Cahaly is correct, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s blocking a quick Senate vote – regardless of his reasons – of the COVID relief bill may further damage the Republicans’ chances in next week’s runoff in Georgia. This is a point made by President Donald Trump on Twitter.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1343998076084748288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1343998076084748288%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Flegalinsurrection.com%2F2020%2F12%2Fmcconnell-blocks-quick-vote-on-2000-covid-checks%2F
The problem with the president’s tweet is that it appears that McConnell’s delay is to get a separate bill passed to deal with Section 230.
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Comments
Establishment Republicans used Trump and Trump supporters to get a lot of things they wanted, but not give Trump supporters what they wanted. not even when it came to election integrity both pre and post election.
Now they are going to see all those goodies they got go away. you reap what you sow.
Establishment GOP would rather lose the goodies and be the minority rather than support Trump. They’ll get their wish.
Them getting what they want really screws us. Perhaps the best way to deal with this is a new party based on Trump’s principles. I have felt for decades that both parties need time out.
Dear J.D.,
I’m sure somebody here is common about it. Third parties do not work for simple reasons. In most states, a third-party candidate hast to get signatures to get his name on a ballot. For example if you want to run for any local office, including dogcatcher, you have to get a certain percentage of registered voters to sign a petition to get your name on the ballot for dogcatcher.
So let’s say that you have a state with 100 counties. A county will have some kind of governing board usually wiith 3-4-5 seats, A local prosecutor, tax collector, coroner, etc. state legislators, u.s, legislators
Let’s say 10 local offices. That means 1000 candidates. Now you figure out how you’re going to get a petition signed by the requisite number of voters for 1000 candidates or a minimum of 10 per county. So for 10 positions in a county you’ve got to get 10 petitions signed, by, about 3-6% of registered voters in that county.
So if you want a national party, you’re gonna have to get so many petitions signed, that you’re not gonna have the resources to do anything else.
This is why a third-party is such a bear to create and why it rarely works. This is why Ron Paul finally started running as a Republican. I’m sure he just got tired of the petitioning.
It would be far superior for citizen groups to become a wing of a party, and to pour their energy into becoming the controlling force of their local and state and national parties.
I would call them Trumplicans and Trumpocrats. That would be a useful application of energy. But it has to be large groups of people, and sustained and consistent and persistent application of effort. A one and done approach will not do it.
To be successful, a new party has destroy and replace a major part of the existing structure, not just create another division. The time is ripe for this.
The Republican leadership is mostly corrupt, dishonest and stupid, and has little policy beyond preserving themselves in power and selling government to their donors for the money to do it.
The Democrats have gone full Marxist and globalist, and a great many of their working-class voters are not on board with this (and much more supportive of Trump’s policies).
Trump has a unique opportunity (and enough of a personal following) to take many Democrat, and most Republican voters from the established parties. If he wants to put enough effort into it, he’s in the position to destroy the Republicans as a major political party, and replace them with a nationalist/populist/constitutionalist party of his own.
@Bisley
The Democrats are centre left, hardly marxist. I really wish people would stop conflating left as marxist it’s a gross misunderstanding of marxism, socialism, communism, left and progressive policies.
JusticeDelivered; MAGA Party? Patriot Party? Freedom Party? I’m all in favor, but my preference would be to primary every RINO/GOPe snake and build the Republican Party into something American Patriots can and will be proud of. America first should be the guiding principle. No more foreign aid until we get our own country straightened out. Why do we continually give money to so many failed states with no positive results? (((Kickbacks to US politicians))). We need so many reforms, and I believe we’re going to get many of them in President Trump’s second term. We’re going to get a second term that will be unchained, with a lot of momentum and speed behind it. We have a chance to cut the cancer of corruption out of our government, our institutions. I truly believe PDJT when he says “The best is yet to come.”
My problem is that scum rises to the top, with both Dem and Rep parties as they exist today. Neither is acceptable.
For over two decades I spent 2-3 months a year in the swamp. That culture is worse than what flourishes in inner cities.
I sure hope Trump prevails and heads start rolling. We will need to start building more prisons.
Why would a Trump supporter who lives in Georgia walk away from an election like this? Do they really want these two creeps representing Georgia and giving a Mandate to Progressive policies? Who will it be payback time for? Don’t cut your nose to spite your face. It’s ridiculous and the only thing to be said for that is , you get what you deserve folks.
Because Trump has attacked the candidates maybe?
RINOs get gored, film @ 11.
there is only one poll that really matters, but, as we saw in November, it is meaningless as well, since the Dominion machines will spit out whatever the Demonrats want.
If both Republicans lose I want to make fun of every Georgian that I see. If they had any dignity they would storm the capital, toss Kemp and the rest of the GOP from the roof of the building. Screw you Georgia, I hope they come to destroy Stone Mountain for your stupidity.
So Trump’s bad faith demagoguery is going to give democrats the senate.
Everything Biden does from this point on is fully on Trump and fully his fault.
BS
Everything Biden…er… Harris does is fully on the Dems. The “heeling” will commence. Every mistake will be covered up just as in the Obama years. “Bad faith”? After today’s demonstration of hacking of the voting machines and the all out steal of the election… the Dems own the disaster they will create if allowed to “govern”. Oh Danny boy… the pipes are calling…
Fuck off.
Purdue literally couldn’t wait to go out and talk about how eager he was to ‘cut deals’ and ‘work with’ a Biden administration.
The alleged Republican governor and SoS have actively fought any attempt to actually audit the fraud.
Loeffler is trying to play the wishy-washy bullshit game of ‘nothing off the table’, while refusing to say what she actually plans to do if elected.
Both of the RINO jackasses were going to get frauded to defeat anyway. The margin is just lower now.
But yeah, ITZ TRUMPZ FAULT REEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Olinser nailed it. Perdue and Loeffler have learned nothing from watching Trump’s popularity climb. Rather than emulate his forthright expression of his beliefs, they talk pablum.
We don’t want to hear that spinelessness out of them. We don’t want to see them throw away a winning presidential election from spinelessness.
Yes, Olinser nailed it.
Question what was Trumps policy platform? He didn’t say very much other than MAGA MAGA MAGA
Interesting. The Harris regime has not finished seizing power, yet you are already making excuses for their failures and screwups.
Biden will remain responsible for Bidens actions no matter what Trump has or hasn’t done. Although I do agree that Trump is a demagogue.
I’m in Georgia, and am unconvinced Georgia voters expect to be paid for their votes. Please remember, Governor Kemp did one good thing, and that was he did not insist that we remain shut down. Granted business is not as robust as it was in February, however most businesses are open and operating.
Of course, the point is well taken that people in the center change their decisions on candidates for light and transient causes. So I suppose it’s quite possible that one or 2% of the population here is willing to sell their votes for $1400 which is the net difference.
But these vote sellers don’t have much to complain about since Gov. Kemp has not insisted everyone in the state file for bankruptcy relief.
Cooked polls are nothing new. I’m wondering if the big reveal January 6 will include big wins for Senators Perdue and Loeffler on November 3, 2020, rendering this runoff moot. Will the big reveal be a professional presentation all pre-election, election day/night and post election day fuquery? Video of dominion machines switching votes in real time? Fractional vote tabulations? Data packets going overseas, being altered, sent back and being received by dominion machines? Will there be video or in person confessions by corrupt cheaters? All the above? More? The battlefield has been prepped. The evidence is going to have to support VPOTUS’s actions with a PDJT second term and give the left it’s “Say it ain’t so, joe!” moment. Today Rudy Giuliani laid down what I believe was the River Card. With all the show cards on the table, we should now know his two hole cards could give him and PDJT the Royal Nut Flush. My bet is they have held the winning hand this entire time.
Uh Huh.
What would you expect?
Same Poll workers, same equipment, same suit-cases..
Am I missing something?
Evidence perhaps
The polls need to favor the D’s since they are about to win big, seemingly against all odds.
This is setting the narrative to quell outrage at Dem cheating
How could a sane person vote for nutjobs like Warnock and Ossoff?
It’s not the voting. It’s the counting.
I find this interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR9DnQMjVWo
Why would anyone suppose that these Republican candidates have any chance of winning? The system is still in place that allowed the presidential election to be stolen, and the Democrats who control the major populated areas are still able to create, manipulate and destroy however many votes they need to win. If they could steal the big one, they can certainly take the little one.
I got an early absentee ballot. I took it with me to vote early today. It was interesting that the absentee ballot only had the Senatorial race and the ballot box also had the District 4 Public Service Commissioner runoff. Another fail for GA’s election officials. And they are still using the Dominion machines.
The number of people publicly supporting the Dem candidates compared to those supporting the Republicans is more than 10 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. The numbers to support the poles are not there. Sadly, this is another election on voting for the candidate that will do the least amount of damage to the state of GA.
Does anyone really expect a different outcome with THIS election? They’ve essentially been given the green light when it comes to corruption at the polls, and we no longer have the law to protect us–and don’t they know it. I think we should start focusing on Constitutional Sanctuary States for those of us who want to preserve and live by the Constitution. If the left can get away with having sanctuary cities/states for people WHO DON’T BELONG HERE, then, damn it, we can do the same for our Constitution.
Thank you John Roberts
People keep focusing on Roberts, but the name you should be looking at is Kavanaugh. Roberts has regularly “crossed over” to vote with the left on major issues. Kavanaugh was sold to us as a solid conservative, but he’s turning out to be every bit as wishy-washy as he looks. He’s going to turn out to be the REAL “Kennedy”.
Have you examined Kavanaughs arguments? I’m not clear that insulting people before a robust analysis is really the way forward. Throwing insults is easy, creating a coherent argument requires effort
Your fundraising efforts would probably be more effective if you would stop reporting on bogus political polling. How many times do they have to be wrong before you “get it”?
These polls are probably not accurate. They exist for two reasons.
The first is to suppress the Republican vote. They are simply suppression polls.
The second is preparation for more election fraud in the state. Nothing has been done to clean up the mess from the last election the security of the process is in the toilet.
Welcome to the New Amerika.
The trafalga pools have been the most accurate and realistic in the last two elections. The polling hasn’t been corrupt they have been wrong. The reason increasingly it seems is that the current orthodox polling methodology doesn’t accurately assess voting preferences. The Trafalga polling has done a better job. I not sure what the error bar is on the graph and the polling is still tight
I don’t believe it. I think this is a conditioning step prior to the steal. Heavily publicize polls showing the Democrats in the lead, then when election fraud hands the victory to the Democrats say “see, exactly as the polls predicted”.