The Democrat beating Trump in the polls isn’t running …. yet
“A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that [Michelle] Obama edges Trump 48% to 45% among Likely U.S. Voters”
Oh my, how times have changed.
Whereas virtually every leading Democrat candidate was trouncing Trump in the polls, the gap has narrowed, disappeared, or moved in Trump’s favor. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll found Trump beating them all:
President Donald Trump, the first modern president to face impeachment during his first term in the White House, now leads his top Democratic rivals in his bid for a second, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds.
The national survey, taken as the House of Representatives planned an impeachment vote and the Senate a trial, showed Trump defeating former Vice President Joe Biden by 3 percentage points, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by 5 points, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 8 points.
In hypothetical head-to-head contests, Trump also led South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg by 10 points and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 9.
You know who is still beating Trump? The person who is not listed in most of the polls, but was the subject of a recent Rasmussen Poll: Michelle Obama.
With some Democrats worrying that the current hopefuls for their party’s nomination can’t beat President Trump next year, speculation has begun anew that Michelle Obama will enter the race. The former first lady still has a narrowing advantage over the president in a hypothetical 2020 matchup.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that Obama edges Trump 48% to 45% among Likely U.S. Voters, with seven percent (7%) undecided….
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted December 16-17, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence….
If the current trend keeps up, with a Trump re-election likely against this field, will Michelle stay out (as she says she will)?
How convenient that Mr. Obama recently said women make better leaders, and he hasn’t lifted a finger to help Biden.
I’m not saying Michelle will parachute in to try to save Democrats, but there will be a lot of pressure for her to do that. And if she does, you better believe I’ll say we told you so:
- Get Ready for Michelle Obama 2020 (September 10, 2017)
- Michelle Obama 2020. Yes She Can. But will she run? (January 29, 2018)
- Michelle Obama 2020 coming into focus with Memoirs release just after 2018 midterms (February 25, 2018)
- Michelle Obama may be best Dem hope for 2020, but says she doesn’t want the job (April 7, 2018)
- Rasmussen Poll: Michelle Obama would beat Trump (November 19, 2018)
- Michelle Obama’s Grammys Buzz – A reminder of the mediocrity of Democrat presidential candidates (February 11, 2019)
- With Bread Line Bernie rising, expect Michelle-mentum (February 21, 2019)
- Don’t rule out Michelle Obama as Democrats’ Hail Mary Pass to prevent a Bernie apocalypse (April 24, 2019)
- Michelle Obama floated as savior of Democrats from radical left general election disaster (October 22, 2019)
- Michelle Obama 2020 Chatter Rising — As We Predicted Over Two Years Ago (November 26, 2019)
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Comments
Neither is Oprah or Hillary.
Michelle won’t be running and for a myriad of reasons, most being personal ones. She is also a woman of leisure not work.
“She is also a woman of leisure not work.”
So was Barrack.
That’s why he had handlers. Michelle (up, probably, to state level) and then a professional, Jarrett (to manage him toward bigger & better things).
Michelle doesn’t have a handler, unless perhaps Jarrett is still on the job.
Jarrett moved into their Washington home after they left the WH.
I assume she’s on the job.
If she were to run-and win-(heaven forbid,she’d be the first black President.The last one making that claim was actually a half breed.
According to his parents’ birth certificates, which list race, BO is 1/16th black, 7/16ths Arabic, and 1/2 white.
WTH are you talking about? This is high-octane BS.
And first transgender?
Her numbers would have no where to go but down if she ran. On the other hand she does have that “not crazy like the other DNC candidates” vibe going in her favor. That would probably fade if she ran and was forced into adopting the positions of The Party.
You’re right though, Michelle and her Beau like the celebrity life too much to run in a race she’ll likely lose (it’s the economy, stupid).
Disagree! It’s the school lunch menu, stupid.
Are you sure she’s actually a woman? I want to see the DNA test.
What in the world does DNA have to being a woman? Where have you been?
Moose hunting season has started, huh? (Otherwise, why is there a photo of a moose at the top of this post?)
When she loses it will be because America is RACIST!
Michelle Obama, much like Hillary Clinton, keep an oar in the Democratic waters to make themselves relevant and keep their ‘brand’ in play.
The Obamas are now a “billion dollar brand”.
No way will they put their ‘brand’ and business ventures on hold again.
I think Michelle Obama would like the attention in the order, without the tough job of being president. I think she’d rather have time off.
I’m certain that he’s, errr, she’s willing and able, even enthusiastic, to run against Mitt Romney…
…oh wait?
I’m pretty sure that Willard Romney would happily be her VP.
Subotai Bahadur
Most likelyher popularity stems from not being exposed to the rough and tumble.
I thought it was her beauty and eloquence.
I guess the down voters didn’t get your sarcasm. LOL!
It will make an interesting convention.
“I suggest a different strategy, Hillary: Let the Wookie win.”
Yeah, I might even watch MO give her “I hate America” acceptance speech.
The deadline to file as a (D) candidate has already passed in many states:
https://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2020_presidential_race
If I correctly understand the info on ballotpedia, however, she still has plenty of time to get on the ballot as an independent.
(I’m assuming one of the announced candidates will come out of the primaries with enough delegates to clinch the nomination. Probably Biden, who — despite his many shortcomings that are so obvious to those of us on this side of the aisle — is still holding onto his place at or near the top of the polls.)
I rather believe that the current Cluster will go into the convention with no one able to get enough delegates to get the nomination. After I believe 2 ballots, the Superdelegates can vote and lobby. I suspect a nominee will be imposed without all the plebian nastiness of needing votes from the peasants. It may be Michelle, it may not. But the press and the peasants will rally around who they are told to.
Subotai Bahadur
The rules will be quickly ejected if Democrats think they will benefit. No rule or law – not even the Constitution – will be allowed to stand in the way of the Democrat Party’s pursuit of power.
Getting the other Democrats to agree to having Michelle swoop in at the last moment and take away what they feel is rightfully theirs won’t be easy, but the media can muzzle them by turning off their hagiographic publicity. Any candidate who still tries to make trouble by waging guerrilla warfare against Michelle – well, there is enough dirt on each one of them to end their careers (and possibly send them to the slammer) in a single news cycle. The life of the resistance against the Anointed One II will be nasty, brutish, and short.
you’re forgetting that rules don’t apply to Democrats
Dems don’t let the voters choose the candidate? Did you learn nothing from 2016. They have a “vote” to make voters feel like they are doing something…the PARTY chooses who will be on the ticket, else Trump would have beaten Bernie Sanders instead of Billary Clinton in 2016.
If she runs and is elected, she would be the first President to have worn thigh-high leather-boots (at least in public). You don’t get much more presidential than that.
Nope. America is still trying to wash the taste of the first America-hating Black-racist out of it’s mouth.
The poll in question suggests otherwise.
I think the interest in her is real, although it might not hold up under the rough and tumble of a campaign.
Don’t forget that this poll only queried stupid people without Caller ID; The rest of us don’t pick up the phone when pollsters call. Also, Rasmussen didn’t report the party affiliation of the responders so no doubt they pulled their usual trick of over-sampling big city democrats.
Not vouching for this poll, but Rasmussen has been one of the better independent pollsters.
She won’t run.
She was never proud of the country that made her a rich woman until it elected her husband. No, I cannot vote for Michelle, even if I’m more humbly grateful than proud to be an American.
It would be a clarifying moment. However, if nobody is punished for the attempted coup, we won’t need any more of those. And if people do get punished for the attempted coup, Ms. Obama’s stock might fall precipitously.
“Savior” candidates who ride to the Party’s rescue rarely do as well as advertised. I am old enough to remember when Ted Kennedy (D-Hell) was the MSM-DNC’s can’t-lose candidate in 1980. You may remember Kennedy lost to an unpopular Democrat incumbent who in turn lost to a too-dumb-to-be-elected-President Republican candidate whose name escapes me for the moment.
I agree, all this speculation and fantasizing is dumb. There’s always someone in this spot every cycle, the “Mystery Candidate”, and they do well in polls because they have never said anything in public, never campaigned, never actually made any hard decisions. Everyone is free to project their own fantasy of the “Perfect Candidate” on this person, because they’ve done nothing at all to contradict it.
The instant all of these millions of fantasies start to have to deal with the decisions and processes of a Real Political Campaign is the instant the Fantasy starts to collapse.
She won’t run. Like Hillary, she is a person that the public likes less and less the more the hear and see if her. Her naturally hateful and negative demeanor would not compare well with Trump’s positive populism.
The surprise candidate at the convention will be Hillary. That’s the purpose of her ghastly facelift. Or at least it will be if she has anything to say about it; the DNC would be mad to go for it.
I have always believed that Michelle My Belle would be the Dem nominee and the idiotic far-lefter candidates remaining at the top of the primary are going to allow Barack to become First Spouse.
He just needs to be begged and this poll should do it. So the only interesting question remaining is: How many Russian votes did it require to put Trump over the top of the poll?
If she runs it won’t be in this election. As others have pointed out, she’s already missed quite a few filing deadlines. And she won’t step in as a savior at a divided convention, either, though she might have her people float her name just to build brand awareness.
No, if she runs it’ll be in 2024. She and Barack are going to let the Democrat party burn to the ground fighting Trump, and then step in to sweep up the ashes.
This is mostly about building a narrative for the Wookie to run in 2024. For her to lose in 2020 would end the Obama legacy, especially if she gets crushed. The impeachment circus while Trump has revitalized the US economy while liberating it from foreign dependencies is just a bad year for ANY Democrat to be running. If they are going to get crushed, it might as well be with a doddering fool like Biden or Hillary the Weeble.
Michelle Obama run for president? Why, she couldn’t even successfully run the federal school lunch program. It was considered a very expensive fiasco. But people think she could run the country? Amazing. Just amazing. And not in a good way.
What makes everybody think that if the Wookie won the election, that SHE’d be running the country? This would be just a backdoor strategy to get Barack back in business.
You meant ValJar, right?
And as usual, these polls are mathematical junk.
The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
These numbers are hash. A Gaussian distribution (which is what pollsters assume, even if they don’t know it) in a sample of 1000 has a standard deviation (or a single sigma probable error) of 3.16%. One sigma means that the actual value – the result we would determine after averaging an infinite number of repeats of the measurement (in this case, the poll) – has a 68% chance of lying within a standard deviation of the measured value. So in this case, the odds are 68% that the actual value is within 3.16% of the published result. To bump that 68% confidence up to 95% we’d have to give 6.32% as the error, which is two sigma. (And these are percents, not “percentage points”, which is meaningless here; if the measurement this week is that 55% of voters prefer Bozo the Clown, and next week it’s 60%, that’s in increase of 5 percentage points, or 9.09 percent.)
tom_swift: A Gaussian distribution (which is what pollsters assume, even if they don’t know it) in a sample of 1000 has a standard deviation (or a single sigma probable error) of 3.16%.
You seem to be conflating the standard deviation with the standard error. Try this margin of error calculator.
Anyone who quotes national polls for the presidential election is a moron. Show me state by state polls or nothing at all. Clinton “won” the national poll in November 2016, but she isn’t president.
Moobacca can win all the polls she wants. But u til she can win the Electoral College, it’s a non-starter.
@Corkyagain
Those are all ballot dates for the primaries. The filing dates for the general election aren’t until later in the year. A Dark Horse (pun?) candidate coming out of a convention isn’t restricted from being on the ballot.
Scott Adams recently discussed polling and responses and with his trademark lucidity remarked that no sane Trump supporter would tell a pollster, who obviously has data and contact information, anything other than that he/she/it would vote for the dems.
Consider the repercussions of simply wearing a MAGA hat in public.
Serious food for thought . . .
Like H. Clinton, M. Obama will never be president.
I’m pretty certain she will never run.
Prob so. But Moochie is never gong to let Hillary be noninee with chance at prez. If Hillary runs She jumps in and wipes Hillary out with 100 %. Black vote and msm connivance just like Barry did.
No worries. Start the Impeachment investigations. Leave nothing unturned.
It doesn’t matter. He won’t run against his designated democrat opponent. He’s going to run against the Squad.
Nah. She hates this country too much to try to run it.
Besides, the tons of money for those no show jobs and Netflix deals are going to keep her busy for quite a while.
This poll is more BS like the Hillary in a landslide polls.
Anyone who believes this “poll” needs to lay off those hallucinogens they are taking…