New Hampshire Poll Shows Bad News For Joe Biden, and Even Worse News for Elizabeth Warren
Biden’s star is falling, while Warren’s has almost faded to black.
Last week, I wrote about new national presidential campaign polling numbers that had Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) taking the lead from former Vice President Joe Biden. Sanders’ has a 5 percentage point lead, making it a significant shift, considering Biden had led every poll taken on the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates (outside of one where there was a tie) until that point.
This week on the polling front shows more concerning news for Biden, as he’s in a virtual tie now with South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the critical primary state of New Hampshire:
The latest Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire finds Sanders at 30 percent, followed by Biden at 18 percent and Buttigieg at 15 percent. No other candidate has more than 5 percent support. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats said they’re still trying to decide who to support.
There is surging interest in Buttigieg among Democratic voters.
In the previous survey from late February, Sanders was at 26 percent, followed by Biden at 22 percent. Buttigieg was only at 1 percent in that survey.
So not only has Biden lost ground in New Hampshire, but he lost it to a guy with a very minimal campaign apparatus and who almost nobody had heard of up until a month or so ago when the media began to treat him as their new BFF.
“Mini B” Buttigieg, by the way, visited New Hampshire just this past weekend.
Where did Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) land in this poll? In 4th place at 5%.
A new UNH Granite State poll is out today: Sanders at 30%, Biden at 18%, Buttigieg at 15% and Warren at 5%. A few takeaways for this poll (which IS a qualifying poll for the early primary debates)… https://t.co/RIGETDMlfD pic.twitter.com/Jmld5y93JU
— Zach Montellaro (@ZachMontellaro) April 22, 2019
Sanders clearly has received the benefit of coming from a neighboring state. Warren, however, has not – which should concern her since she has invest so much time and energy in New Hampshire.
This is in addition to the fact that she’s not even polling well in her own state, and has fundraising issues on top of everything else.
There’s also this from that Emerson poll from last week that had Sanders in the lead for the first time:
26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.
While many have assumed that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to a similar progressive voter, many apparent Bernie supporters would seem to disagree. More than one-in-four of them say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren. In the overall head-to-head between Warren and Trump, voters suggest that they would prefer Trump 52% to Warren 48%.
Ouch. No wonder Warren has taken increasingly desperate (and expensive!) measures to try and jump start her flailing campaign. In fact, her longest answer of the night in her Monday CNN town hall from New Hampshire was her explainer on her call for Trump’s impeachment:
“There is no ‘political inconvenience’ exception to the United States Constitution.” -Sen. Elizabeth Warren on why she rejects some Democrats’ argument that they shouldn’t pursue impeachment against President Trump because it is not politically expedient. #WarrenTownHall pic.twitter.com/QQcbeXmyKn
— CNN (@CNN) April 23, 2019
She’s going for broke on this one, y’all, whether House Democrats are on board with her or not.
As for Biden, if he does end up officially announcing his campaign for president this week, expect that to give him a temporary uptick in his numbers.
Has New Hampshire historically been a reliable predictor of the eventual Democratic presidential candidate? Here are the numbers from 1976 to 2012:
New Hampshire's record on selecting the eventual Democratic nominee since 1976 (source: ABC News). Sanders was their pick in 2016. pic.twitter.com/eIJBSkBn86
— Sister Toldjah Le Pew ? (@sistertoldjah) April 22, 2019
When you take Sanders’s 2016 primary win into account, that’s 5 out of 9 Democratic nominees they’ve reliably predicted, and only one win on to win the presidency.
That said, Democratic winners of New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary naturally try to use their wins as momentum-builders for their campaigns.
The Democratic debates start in late June. Assuming Warren is still in the race at that point (to be fair, it’s still early on in the campaign season), expect her to come out swinging in order to differentiate herself from the ever-expanding list of candidates.
— Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym “Sister Toldjah” and can be reached via Twitter. —
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Comments
Since they are such good liberals, they should at least get participation trophies. Bye bye.
Warren should just crawl back under her faux teepee and call it a day. She managed to ride her fake-Indian, shitty bankruptcy research, affirmative action/spousal hires into the U.S. Senate and a millionaire lifestyle. Not a bad haul for a Rutgers grifter.
What if Legal Insurrection had a moritorium on meaningless poll stories until 6 months before the election?
Who forced you to read it?
What makes you think I read it? Do you think these polls have any significance now? Polls said Hillary would win too. More fakery.
You care so little you took the time to comment… twice.
Nah, it’d be better to moratorium florida men.
These polls, most often paid for and faked by the lefties, have only one purpose. They are meant to promote the msm’s favorite du jour, and to persuade mind-numbed robots to assume that whoever the msm chooses as the ultimate candidate is a landslide guarantee to beat anyone they don’t like.
With 20+ goofballs in the dem primaries, watching them knife each other through whatever means, be it fake polling or innuendo is priceless and popcorn-worthy.
These polls . . . are meant to promote the msm’s favorite du jour
And thoughtful discussion of the polls in those terms might be worthwhile. Swallowing them at face value and treating them like real news, maybe not so much.
There is no ‘political inconvenience’ exception to the United States Constitution.
Yet another D’rat who must have slept through high-school civics class. The only political system which is not based on political (in)convenience is one vesting all authority in a solitary, hereditary tyrant. Certainly no republic would qualify.
For all the stuff about Cherokee heritage, I think the video with the beer did the most damage.
Warren is clearly a wine drinking sort of person.
Is Warren just too crazy for the crazies with all her promises of freebies? Or has she just told too many lies? Has Plugs sniffed too much hair and gotten inappropriately close to too many girls/women of all ages, not to mention the nude swimming in front of female Secret Service Agents? Yes, we have some real winners in this loaded Democratic field.
2016 was her shot. She was the shiny new toy back then. Now there are so many shiny new toys to fall in love with.
Nothing about her approach ages well.
I don’t see Avenatti on the list.
CNN told me over and over again that he was a contenda!
What happened?
26% of Sanders supporters say they would rather vote Trump in for a second term than to vote Warren….this is by far the most fascinating part of the story. Why would this be?
Are they saying it just because they are lashing out hatred toward Warren but don’t really mean it?
Is there a faction of Sanders crowd that view disruption as good, even if it comes from Trump?
Is there a faction of Sanders supporters that view another Trump term a faster way to socialism than to vote in an establishment Dem and continue status quo?
Are they just crazy?
During one of Obama’s runs, I read a story about a group of white supremacists that were actively campaigning for Obama because they felt the fastest way to start a race war was to have a black president. Are the Sanders people thinking along similar lines, except replacing race war with socialism?
Well . . we might postulate a small percentage of voters who value honesty above doctrinaire fantasy.
Bernie is the real deal. He really believes in his communist crap. Sure, he may get rich on the side, but that’s not the primary reason he’s in this business. All the others say whatever they have to say to get into office; for them, that’s the road to power and wealth. In their universe, genuine belief isn’t part of the formula. The 2020 field is all fakers and frauds—Spartacus, Horizontal Harris, Bucktooth Beto, Lieawatha, all of them except Bernie and DJT.
For such voters, the field is limited to Bernie, DJT, and a bunch of negligible noise. While for them Bernie may be No. 1, the only possible No. 2 is Trump.
“Are they just crazy?”
You think? Bernie supporters. Yes, crazy, insane actually.
Biden is an incompetent, corrupt POS.
Warren is a malignant fraud, a userper of other peoples’ privileges, and a corrupt POS.
They’d make a great team.
Could it be that democrats can’t see anybody winning against Trump???