Blue Wave may not be as blue as initially promised.
Earlier this week, my colleague Mary Chastain reported that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is pouring money into key districts in southern California.
The Democrats are counting on taking seven seats in deep blue California to help get them to the 23 seats needed to win to take back the House of Representatives from the Republicans. After a Democrat-majority House takes over in January, then it’s time for impeachment of President Donald Trump.
However, a new analysis by The New York Times indicates that the “Jungle Primary” system in California may offer cover for Republicans this November. It turns out that there are so many Democrats clamoring to be on the ballot that it is splintering the votes between many progressive hopefuls.
Meanwhile, Republicans are coalescing behind candidates with messages that actually appeal to the base.
With so many Democrats running, the party’s fear is that the vote will be splintered, allowing Republicans — who have fewer candidates — to dominate some primaries. The party and allied groups are spending more than $4 million on just three campaigns, intervening in one contest to prop up a favored candidate; attacking a Republican from the right in another; and even reminding people not to waste their votes on “ghost candidates” who have dropped out yet remain on the ballot.
As any progressive activist will explain through gnashed teeth, the head-snapping scramble is because of the state’s “top two” open primary system, which allows the two leading vote-getters — regardless of political parties — to advance to the general election.
…“It’s a disaster,” Gail Reisman, a retired gerontologist and Toronto native who lives in Representative Dana Rohrabacher’s district, said after attending a candidate forum Tuesday. “If we have two Republicans running I think I’m going back to Canada.”
How bad is it? Recent elections have resulted in situations in which June’s primary field has been whittled down to 2 Democrats for the November vote. And Democrats and their media minions have been thrilled with that.
Fast forward to today: Between reduced Republican choices, GOP voters angry at Sacramento policies, and an effective President, the Blue Wave isn’t as blue as initially promised.
The Los Angles Times is now questioning whether the “Jungle Primary” system should remain, which tells you how worried the Democrat’s media minions are.
As California hurtles toward its state primary June 5, it is obvious there’s a problem. Its open primary system — which sends the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party affiliation — is not working as intended and risks throwing the midterm election into acrimony and confusion. This system is called a “jungle primary” for a reason: It is brutal and unpredictable. In three high-profile House races, there are so many candidates from the two major parties eating into one another’s support that the election results may end up owing more to chance than any discernible will of the people.
Polls show that Democrats have an excellent chance of capturing the Southern Californian seats being vacated by Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) and Darrell Issa (R-Isla Vista) and have a good shot at unseating Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach). These are all bona fide swing districts that surely deserve an up-and-down contest between a Republican and a Democrat in November.
But there is no guarantee this is what the voters will get. The biggest risk in all three districts is that the Democrats will fall victim to their own energy and enthusiasm and that, even if their candidates collectively win over 50% of the vote, they will be too split to secure either of the top two slots.
I would also like to stress that the state’s independent conservatives and Republicans are highly motivated to vote in both the primary and general elections. The Sanctuary State Laws, MS-13 #FakeNews drama, “free healthcare” for illegal immigrants, and a “Trumpian” economy are inspiring a lot more fight in the conservative grassroots voters than has been seen in recent election cycles.
In conclusion, the final ballot in November may be redder than anticipated when Sacramento sold the “Jungle Primary” system to Californians. Hubris, meet Nike.DONATE
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