We continue to keep a close eye on polls for the midterms coming up in November because 2016 taught us THAT ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN.
An Axios/SurveyMonkey poll came out today that shows five Democrat senators losing if elections occurred today. FOUR of them lost out to unnamed Republicans in the polls.
The GOP only holds a one seat majority in the Senate. It wouldn’t take much for the Democrats to take back the Senate.
Except…Democrats have to defend 10 seats in states that President Donald Trump won. This is probably why the party has decided to concentrate more on House races than Senate races even though the majority is right there for the taking.
Via Axios
At the end of December, Politico ran an article that listed the top Senate races to watch in 2018. The list included some of the ones that lost in the Axios poll: Joe Manchin (D-WV), Jon Tester (MT), and Claire McCaskill (MO).
Manchin is probably the most vulnerable, especially since Trump’s approval rating is 65% and the state cheered when its governor switched to the GOP. Manchin is the most conservative Democrat senator. When he decided to run for re-election in January, “he repeatedly expressed his frustration” to Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) and other colleagues about the dysfunction within the chamber and their intolerance of moderate lawmakers. He told them that “[I]f people like me can’t win from red states, you’ll be in the minority the rest of your life.”
It appears that some agreed, including Schumer, who “has made no apologies for his efforts to protect Democrats from conservative states.” After Trump won, rumors circulated that he eyed Manchin for cabinet posts, which led Schumer to offer the senator “plum committee assignments.”
The Democrats need to do more because the poll has him losing to a generic Republican, 52% to 43%. Six Republicans have filed for the primary: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, Rep. Evan Jenkins, coal miner Bo Copley, hotel owner Tom Willis, Navy veteran Jack Newbrough, former Chairman and CEO of Massey Energy (and recently released from prison) Don Blankenship.
Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly expressed happiness that Manchin decided to run again, but he has some problems of his own. He lost to a generic Republican in the poll by six points and Trump enjoys a 53% approval rating in the state.
Now look at the other five Democrat senators. Yes, the poll shows them winning, but none of them have comfortable leads. Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin only won by three points over a generic Republican, which “is underscored by outside conservative groups that have already spent millions of dollars in attack ads against her.”
I’m kind of shocked Axios put Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown as one of the least vulnerable. He won in the poll by five points over Rep. Jim Renacci, but Trump’s approval rating in Ohio is at 54%. Something tells me that Brown won’t (or shouldn’t) think he has the election in the bag.
It just seems like poll after poll shows us that not only will the GOP keep the majority in the Senate, but actually unseat some incumbent Democrats.
Then again…do any of you guys fully trust the numbers? As much as it fascinates me, I find myself leery about numbers and polls after November 2016.
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