Stuart Rothenberg still sees no Dem wave in sight:
Democratic strategists need a dramatic shift in the House playing field if they are going to have any chance of netting the 25 seats they need to regain a majority in the House of Representatives. And that outcome looks increasingly remote.
Right now, the outlook for the House is anywhere from a small GOP gain to a modest Democratic gain in the single digits — not close to what Democrats hoped for as the cycle began.
A detailed, race-by-race evaluation of the House suggests that Republicans already have 201 safe seats, with 11 more rated by my newsletter as “Republican Favored,” a barely competitive category. An additional 14 seats are rated as “Lean Republican.”
If Republicans lose every race my newsletter currently rates as “Toss-up/Tilt Republican,” “Toss-up” or “Toss-up/Tilt Democrat,” they would still win 226 seats in the House — eight more than needed for a majority.
That said, we should take nothing for granted, and should seek to hold onto our gains and maybe flip some more seats.
I’m running behind on the Operation Counterweight list, unfortunately.
I did not predict, and could not have foreseen, Elizabeth Warren’s Cherokee fiasco when I started considering the list in the late winter. Although I swore to devote my limited resources elsewhere, Warren has become the No. 1 project here other than Obama, for reasons of her own making.
But the rest of the nation is not forgotten.
Here’s the list so far for the general election, in no particular order:
Richard Mourdock (Senate – IN)
Barry Hinckley (Senate – RI)
Allen West (FL-16)
Mia B. Love (UT-04)
Brendan Doherty (RI-01)
The Upstate NY Group, particularly Chris Gibson (NY-19), Matt Doheny (NY-21), Ann Marie Buerkle (NY-24), Maggie Brooks (NY-25), and Chris Collins (NY-27).
Possible addition — Whoever wins the primary to run against Dem incumbent John Barrow in Georgia-12.
Also, we’re following the Cruz v. Dewhurst primary at the end of the month.
Looking for 3-5 more congressional races.
I need to get the list completed, so taking final suggestions now that most of the primaries are over.
DONATE
Donations tax deductible
to the full extent allowed by law.
Comments
We have the exceptionally sleazy Dem Jared Polis (voted enthusiastically for Obamacare while investing millions in “health care tourism”). He will be vastly overspending Kevin Lundberg in Colorado House-D2. With re-districting, liberal Boulder was patchworked in with conservative Northern Colo. Lundberg is a good guy with a steep hill to climb.
http://lundberg2012.com/?page_id=91
Why not Josh Mandel (Senate – OH)? Flipping the far-left Sherrod Brown to the very conservative 2 time Iraq war vet Mandel would be a huge benefit to overturning Obamacare. And at 34 years old, he would be a great incumbent to have in the perennial swing state.
Let’s also get behind repealing the 17th Amendment, thus giving the states back their well-deserved voice in Washington.
I’m a huge fan of Tom Cotton, Arkasas-4. I’ve mentioned him a couple of times in the Tip Line. It’s an open seat, being vacated by a Democrat, so a win would be a net pickup. Cook has the district rated R+7, so he’s got a good chance. He’s got Tea Party support. Powerline blog, The Weekly Standard, and Club for Growth are all lined up behind him. So I’m not sure how much more help you can provide, since he’s already on the radar of many others. However, if he wins, some think he’s got Marco Rubio like potential to be governor or maybe even hold national office several years down the road.
The other young gun I’m watching is Justin Amash, Michigan-3. He won his seat in 2010. When he took office, he was the second youngest sitting Congressman serving at age 30 (the youngest is also a Republican – so we’re getting a good bench). His district has a Cook PVI of R+6. I like him because he considers himself to be a libertarian, and says Hayek and Bastiat are his heros. Also rode into office with Tea Party support.
How about Dan Bongino a self made man who is, in many ways, the opposite of President Obama, not to mention of his opponent, Sen. Ben Cardin.
[…] Legal Insurrection has an updated OPERATION COUNTERWEIGHT LIST. […]
How about moderate Republican in New Mexico, Heather Wilson
against Demoncrat enviro Heinrich? http://www.diffen.com/difference/Heather_Wilson_vs_Martin_Heinrich
New Mexico likes its conservative Republican latina governor, Susanna Martinez who is getting a lot of flak regarding her policy on changing the law of giving NM licenses to illegal aliens and non-residents of the state. GO SUSANNA!
Turns out today is the anniversary of the finding of the Rosetta Stone! It turns out that it a big thank you note to the pharaoh for giving a group of priests a tax break. Amazing how that works, even after thousands of years.
Let me recommend Ricky Gill, running to unseat Democrat Jerry McNerny in CA-09. California’s Central Valley, some of the richest farmland in the world, has been devastated by a federally induced drought. The results have been ruined crops and, in some areas, unemployment reaching 40% (!). McNerney has done nothing to fight this. Gill, on the other hand, promises to fight to get the water flowing again. Look over his site, I think he’s a good candidate and likely to flip the seat: http://www.rickygill.com/
How about Richard Tisei running against John Tierney in MA-06? Tisei is very popular in that district and Tierney has had his share of issues lately. I think it’s definately a possible flip in Mass.
I’d also glance at Barney Frank’s old district (MA-04). Sean Bielat will likely win the primary, and Frank’s district was changed to include some fairly reliably conservative towns while losing liberal New Bedford. Whoever the primary winner is will take on Joe Kennedy 3, who has zero going for him except is last name. I’d like to see a Kennedy lose an election once in my life.
Prof: Here is another House race you might be interested in. It is IN-2, the seat being vacated by Donnelly. The candidate is Jackie Walorski. She is good. http://www.standwithjackie.com/
Allow me to recommend Keith Rothfus (http://keithrothfus.com) for PA-12. The current Dem is Mark Critz, who recently won the seat from Jason Altmire when the district was redrawn. Mark Critz, for those who don’t know, is the late John Murtha’s aide and when he died, Critz served the remainder of the term before running for reelection himself. Murtha’s ghost is strong with Critz, especially in Johnstown and Cambria County, and they are likely expecting him to develop into the porkmeister Murtha was. Of course, there are many more of us who couldn’t stand Murtha while he was alive, and I know I’m not keen on having his surrogate perpetuating radical Dem policies.
There’s also Tom Smith for Senate (http://tomsmithforsenate.com), running against Bob Casey, Jr., who has pretty much walked in lockstep with Harry Reid and Obama, and has been a total disgrace to his father’s (the late Gov. Robert Casey) memory.
A few congressional candidates identified by Sarah Palin list includes:
a) Ben Lange, Iowa CD-1, lost in 2010 by 2%
b) Ilario Pantano, NC-7, lost in 2010 by 7%
c) Renee Elmers, incumbent, NC-2, won in 2010 by 1%
Well, I wonder how you are counting Boehner in the House and McCain in the Senate. Neither seats are “safe” especially if the incumbent wins.
Boehner and McCain are outraged that Bachmann, et al. pointed out the truth that Hillary’s CoS has multiple family members deeply involved with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Heaven help us from RINOs!
Considering the recall in Wisconsin and recent welfare waiver activity by Obama…WI Senate Eric Hovde is up against Tommy Thompson (ex gov of WI and incubator of working welfare, Ex DHS Secty)and Mark Neumann, not well liked do to some tactics against Gov Walker in his first election.
Will be running against very liberal Tammy Baldwin.
Karl Rove’s PAC is trying to push Neumann down our throats and local conservative, TP’s are having none of it.
This will be recall recast.
MN02 has been represented by John Kline for at least 3-terms and this time, he’s getting a challenge from an inner city DFLer, who’s coming out to the Suburbs to run for the GOP nomination against John Kline.
If the DFL’s version of “Operation Chaos” succeeds, we might just have to fold our tent and go sit in the corner and sulk.
Of course, maybe now some GOPers will recognize that we have to play hardball with those Socialists who are trying to use their phony baloney Chicagoland tactics.
[…] not going to go out of my way to get her elected, though. A good place to go out of my way is Operation Counterweight. Lets target those […]