Stuart Rothenberg still sees no Dem wave in sight:

Democratic strategists need a dramatic shift in the House playing field if they are going to have any chance of netting the 25 seats they need to regain a majority in the House of Representatives. And that outcome looks increasingly remote.

Right now, the outlook for the House is anywhere from a small GOP gain to a modest Democratic gain in the single digits — not close to what Democrats hoped for as the cycle began.

A detailed, race-by-race evaluation of the House suggests that Republicans already have 201 safe seats, with 11 more rated by my newsletter as “Republican Favored,” a barely competitive category. An additional 14 seats are rated as “Lean Republican.”

If Republicans lose every race my newsletter currently rates as “Toss-up/Tilt Republican,” “Toss-up” or “Toss-up/Tilt Democrat,” they would still win 226 seats in the House — eight more than needed for a majority.

That said, we should take nothing for granted, and should seek to hold onto our gains and maybe flip some more seats.

I’m running behind on the Operation Counterweight list, unfortunately.

I did not predict, and could not have foreseen, Elizabeth Warren’s Cherokee fiasco when I started considering the list in the late winter.  Although I swore to devote my limited resources elsewhere, Warren has become the No. 1 project here other than Obama, for reasons of her own making.

But the rest of the nation is not forgotten.

Here’s the list so far for the general election, in no particular order:

Richard Mourdock (Senate – IN)
Barry Hinckley (Senate – RI)
Allen West (FL-16)
Mia B. Love (UT-04)
Brendan Doherty (RI-01)
The Upstate NY Group, particularly Chris Gibson (NY-19), Matt Doheny (NY-21), Ann Marie Buerkle (NY-24), Maggie Brooks (NY-25), and Chris Collins (NY-27).

Possible addition — Whoever wins the primary to run against Dem incumbent John Barrow in Georgia-12.

Also, we’re following the Cruz v. Dewhurst primary at the end of the month.

Looking for 3-5 more congressional races.

I need to get the list completed, so taking final suggestions now that most of the primaries are over.


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