If the results of the latest Fox News poll are to be believed, Democrats may be closer than ever to turning the Lone Star State blue. A survey of registered voters showed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) trailing state Rep. James Talarico (D) in the Senate race by 3 points, 51% to 48%.
It’s worth noting that this is the first poll in which either candidate has surpassed the 50% threshold.
Although Republicans can take some comfort in the fact that this result falls within the poll’s margin of error and the RealClearPolitics average still shows the candidates tied, one finding is more difficult to dismiss: a significant enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters.
Democrats enjoyed a 7-point advantage over Republicans among voters who said they were “extremely motivated” to vote and a 6-point edge among those who said they were “extremely interested in the midterms.”
[The enthusiasm gap has emerged as a recurring theme in polls throughout this election cycle.]
The data showed that 68% of independents and 98% of Democrats back Talarico, while just 89% of Republicans support Paxton.
Fox attributes Paxton’s inability to win over a larger share of Republican voters to the poll’s finding that 24% of non-MAGA Republicans now support Talarico.
According to Fox:
Paxton is the choice among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attenders, men and voters ages 65 and older.Some of Talarico’s best groups are Black voters, moderates, voters under age 30, Hispanic voters, women and voters with a college degree.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2082957352526127474?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Fox News polls are managed by one Republican and one Democrat. The Republican, Daron Shaw, noted that Paxton’s “bruising” primary fight with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn “left scars.”
According to Shaw, “He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left.”
Additional results from the Fox survey:
By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve as a senator than believe Talarico is too extreme (59% vs. 47%).Twice as many Republicans are concerned about Paxton’s character as Democrats are that Talarico is too extreme (36% vs. 17%).Still, about 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people.Trump received a 55% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable rating in the 2024 Texas Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. Today, those numbers have flipped: 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, for a minus-9 net negative rating.Paxton garners a minus-6 net personal rating, 45% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable, while Talarico is in positive territory by 6 points, 49% vs. 43%.Talarico is more popular than the Democratic Party while the GOP edges out Paxton.While both parties are viewed negatively, the GOP is underwater by only 2 points (48% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable), compared with the Democratic Party at minus-9 (45% vs. 54%).
Political analyst Larry Sabato, editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told a beaming Erin Burnett, that since 1994, Texas Democrats have been calling him “virtually everyday,” saying, “This is the year. We’re finally going to do it.
“But, you know what, I’m starting to believe it’s actually possible this year. Not just because James Talarico is a great candidate, which he is. But Paxton is so awful.
“Donors won’t touch him. Notice he’s not doing well at all raising money. It’s because they have family and friends and businesses to protect and they really don’t want to identify themselves publicly with a candidate who has Paxton’s record.”
[I should note that while Sabato claims to be nonpartisan, he is a leftist through and through.]
Sabato is right about Paxton’s fundraising, which has undeniably been disappointing. Talarico recorded $54.5 million in donations on June 30, compared with just $3.9 million for Paxton. To be sure, Paxton did not secure the GOP nomination until May 26, leaving him less time to raise money, but the disparity remains striking.
But Sabato is wrong to say Talarico is a great candidate. His impressive second-quarter fundraising haul says less about his strengths as a candidate than it does about Democrats’ determination to flip one of the nation’s most coveted Senate seats. Beyond moving the party one seat closer to reclaiming the Senate majority, a victory in Texas would represent a massive symbolic triumph for Democrats.
Nor is Paxton an “awful” candidate, and despite the poll, Republicans hold several important advantages. While Paxton has a lot of personal baggage, he has won three statewide elections and defeated a well-funded incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, in the Republican Senate primary.
Paxton enters the general election with near-universal name recognition among Texas voters, strong support from President Trump and the Republican base, and a political profile closely aligned with the priorities of many Texas conservatives.
Regardless of the Democratic nominee, Republicans have won every statewide election in Texas since the 1990s, giving any GOP nominee a structural advantage.
These factors suggest Democrats still face a formidable challenge.
The Fox poll suggests Democrats have genuine reasons for optimism, but it is still only one snapshot of a race with three months to go. Both candidates have time to define themselves before voters cast their ballots. Whether Talarico’s fundraising advantage and current enthusiasm translate into votes — or whether Paxton consolidates Republican support and closes the enthusiasm gap — will become clearer as additional polling and fundraising data emerge in the months ahead.
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