Warning Signs for Paxton as Independents, Some Non-MAGA Republicans Drift Toward Talarico
The data showed that 68% of independents and 98% of Democrats back Talarico, while just 89% of Republicans support Paxton.
If the results of the latest Fox News poll are to be believed, Democrats may be closer than ever to turning the Lone Star State blue. A survey of registered voters showed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) trailing state Rep. James Talarico (D) in the Senate race by 3 points, 51% to 48%.
It’s worth noting that this is the first poll in which either candidate has surpassed the 50% threshold.
Although Republicans can take some comfort in the fact that this result falls within the poll’s margin of error and the RealClearPolitics average still shows the candidates tied, one finding is more difficult to dismiss: a significant enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters.
Democrats enjoyed a 7-point advantage over Republicans among voters who said they were “extremely motivated” to vote and a 6-point edge among those who said they were “extremely interested in the midterms.”
[The enthusiasm gap has emerged as a recurring theme in polls throughout this election cycle.]
The data showed that 68% of independents and 98% of Democrats back Talarico, while just 89% of Republicans support Paxton.
Fox attributes Paxton’s inability to win over a larger share of Republican voters to the poll’s finding that 24% of non-MAGA Republicans now support Talarico.
According to Fox:
Paxton is the choice among White evangelical Christians, White men without a college degree, rural voters, regular worship attenders, men and voters ages 65 and older.
Some of Talarico’s best groups are Black voters, moderates, voters under age 30, Hispanic voters, women and voters with a college degree.
New Fox polling has Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48% in the Texas Senate Race. pic.twitter.com/DqsQh8GpYr
— Acyn (@Acyn) July 30, 2026
Fox News polls are managed by one Republican and one Democrat. The Republican, Daron Shaw, noted that Paxton’s “bruising” primary fight with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn “left scars.”
According to Shaw, “He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left.”
Additional results from the Fox survey:
By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve as a senator than believe Talarico is too extreme (59% vs. 47%).
Twice as many Republicans are concerned about Paxton’s character as Democrats are that Talarico is too extreme (36% vs. 17%).
Still, about 8 in 10 Paxton and Talarico supporters say their backing is more about where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people.
Trump received a 55% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable rating in the 2024 Texas Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. Today, those numbers have flipped: 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, for a minus-9 net negative rating.
Paxton garners a minus-6 net personal rating, 45% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable, while Talarico is in positive territory by 6 points, 49% vs. 43%.
Talarico is more popular than the Democratic Party while the GOP edges out Paxton.
While both parties are viewed negatively, the GOP is underwater by only 2 points (48% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable), compared with the Democratic Party at minus-9 (45% vs. 54%).
Political analyst Larry Sabato, editor-in-chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told a beaming Erin Burnett, that since 1994, Texas Democrats have been calling him “virtually everyday,” saying, “This is the year. We’re finally going to do it.
“But, you know what, I’m starting to believe it’s actually possible this year. Not just because James Talarico is a great candidate, which he is. But Paxton is so awful.
“Donors won’t touch him. Notice he’s not doing well at all raising money. It’s because they have family and friends and businesses to protect and they really don’t want to identify themselves publicly with a candidate who has Paxton’s record.”
[I should note that while Sabato claims to be nonpartisan, he is a leftist through and through.]
Sabato is right about Paxton’s fundraising, which has undeniably been disappointing. Talarico recorded $54.5 million in donations on June 30, compared with just $3.9 million for Paxton. To be sure, Paxton did not secure the GOP nomination until May 26, leaving him less time to raise money, but the disparity remains striking.
But Sabato is wrong to say Talarico is a great candidate. His impressive second-quarter fundraising haul says less about his strengths as a candidate than it does about Democrats’ determination to flip one of the nation’s most coveted Senate seats. Beyond moving the party one seat closer to reclaiming the Senate majority, a victory in Texas would represent a massive symbolic triumph for Democrats.
Nor is Paxton an “awful” candidate, and despite the poll, Republicans hold several important advantages. While Paxton has a lot of personal baggage, he has won three statewide elections and defeated a well-funded incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, in the Republican Senate primary.
Paxton enters the general election with near-universal name recognition among Texas voters, strong support from President Trump and the Republican base, and a political profile closely aligned with the priorities of many Texas conservatives.
Regardless of the Democratic nominee, Republicans have won every statewide election in Texas since the 1990s, giving any GOP nominee a structural advantage.
These factors suggest Democrats still face a formidable challenge.
Why one of the nation’s top election forecasters thinks a Democrat could win the Texas Senate race for the first time in over 30 years: “I’m starting to believe it’s actually possible this year.” pic.twitter.com/IeZUua90pi
— Erin Burnett OutFront (@OutFrontCNN) July 31, 2026
The Fox poll suggests Democrats have genuine reasons for optimism, but it is still only one snapshot of a race with three months to go. Both candidates have time to define themselves before voters cast their ballots. Whether Talarico’s fundraising advantage and current enthusiasm translate into votes — or whether Paxton consolidates Republican support and closes the enthusiasm gap — will become clearer as additional polling and fundraising data emerge in the months ahead.
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Comments
Make a commercial with a split screen. One half is Talarico’s mug, the other is his Fauci bobblehead.
Cornyn shows his true colors by not telling supporters that Talarico is bad news.
Paxton hasn’t started campaigning yet.
He has no money.
No his campaign doesn’t have a large war chest, in part due to TX and DC establishment GoP country club Ned Flanders types pushing their favorite Cornyn in a multi round primary election.
The good news is the recent SCOTUS ruling that campaigns and PACs can now legally much more closely coordinate campaign expenditures. Once the truthful ads about just how weird and off putting Talarico actually is start-up that strange little dude gonna be cooked.
So there are still a lot of GOP/Independent retards out there, evidently.
There are a lot in Texas politics, that’s for sure. They have their own version of the McCain Family Curse.
One of the reasons I’m reluctant to move to Texas.
Is this a sign that the migration of people from California to Texas has resulted in migration of leftist ideology as we’ve experienced in many other states.
The pattern is clear. Leftists take over a state and rapidly begin destroying it’s economy and liberty. Rich people and the conservatives that can begin fleeing the state. The resulting increasing taxes, increasing cost of living and decreasing employment opportunities eventually results in leftists fleeing the state out of self-preservation.
But the leftists can’t admit that they had to flee because of their worldview so they bring their politics with them and immediately begin trying to turn the state the fled to into a political mirror of the one they just fled.
Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Virginia…is Texas next?
When the last red state turns blue, where do we flee to then?
I sure hope Elon has his Mars colony underway by then…might be the only place left to go.
Your doomsday scenario brings new meaning to the red planet.
Who is John Galt?
Exactly. If y’all don’t already live in a safe haven sort of area (in a deep red rural county) with a well, stocked ponds, some fruit trees, space for a garden and some smaller farm animals with a well supplied pantry, a full propane tank, some kind of independent power generation capability, a few pew pews and most important like minded neighbors ….you should consider getting with program. You definitely don’t wanna be the trail vehicle out of the burning remnants of suburban/exurban are of a large metro expecting/demanding some ‘kind rural folk’ to take.care of you in that scenario bringing no worthwhile skills and nothing but empty mouths.
Add Maine and New Hampshire to the list, both having fatally contaminated with Massholes.
We can add Colorado to your state list — a formerly reliably “red” state that incessant Dhimmi-crat migration flipped “blue.” New Hampshire seems in danger of following the same fate.
Some no-MAGA Republicans drift toward Talarico
Anybody that drifts toward Talarico is not a Republican
I wonder how much of this reporting is false flag operations to flip the middle.to the left?
I was wondering the opposite — how much of this is to loosen purse strings towards Paxton?
You could call them the Phelan wing of the Republicrat Party.
Time will tell but a poll in July before the campaigns really kick in gear don’t mean a whole lot particularly if like this one, they are registered voters not likely voters.
A few points about this poll in particular:
Fox polls in 2024 understated support for Trump
The Fox website is basically anti-populist pro GOP establishment
Their favorite Republicans are those who are most anti Trump
The fact that Paxton has not raised a lot of money may be less relevant as Trump and the GOP sit on a mountain of cash which can be unleashed as necessary and Musk says this week, he will fund the GOP midterm election effort
The summer speculation to divine the meaning of campaign polls an eternity from Nov elections is fun but mostly fodder. If you think ‘eternity’ is too strong a word to describe the distance between late July and the first week of Nov (95 days away) remember that the Nazi SS Totenkopf tattoo guy in Maine overwhelmingly won the d/prog nomination and then withdrew within 30 days.
Talarico is a store brand knockoff version of Beto. A creepy looking, odd white dude with questionable to false theological views who is simultaneously a vegan and loves TX BBQ, has a short term lease on a pickup (presumably to burnish his ‘manly/Texan’ persona) who claims to have a girlfriend but ‘we wouldn’t know her’, loves him some trannys, wants open borders, wants gun control and all sorts of other things that are not gonna play well with the vast majority of Texans.
Is Paxton a perfect candidate? Nope. He’s got some scars and some enemies in the State and within the TX GoP establishment. He has still managed to win multiple statewide elections including beating a powerful incumbent in Cornyn who was backed by tens of $millions from the DC GoP establishment. When he starts running ads and ordinary voters begin paying attention after Labor Day any shine on Talarico’s campaign will be worn down. Unless there’s some bombshell later then Paxton wins 52/48 at worst and that’s with low GoP turnout by lean GoP Indy and Establishment GoP country club types staying home.
America will not survive stupid people much longer.
“What do we mean when we say that first of all we seek liberty? I often wonder whether we do not rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.” — LEARNED HAND
We made the fatal mistake of allowing our educational institutions to be invaded and occupied by the enemies of liberty, and letting our children be taught by them to value dependency over freedom. Eventually, America will get a new government — a government that it has been taught to value over the one that kept them free.
Talarico has billions (literally) in outside campaign cash and free media. As a result it seems like his ads are non-stop on TV and radio.
By contrast the Texas GOP Establishment – enraged that Cornyn lost – is starving the Paxton campaign.
Paxton’s problem is he has no money. The RNC will have to spend all its money to prop him up, and that means they won’t be able to spend in other states.
Yes but the stupid party spent $100,000,000.00 (?) trying to keep Cornyn
That’s certainly the RINO BS line.
Funny how you didn’t complain when they spent a total of $150 million ‘propping up’ Cornyn to lose TWICE in the primary.
That’s money already spent that could have been spent on actual winning candidates.
No moderate would ever vote for Talarico. He’s a far left nut job. Any Republican who votes for him is no Republican.
When are the republicans, who have greatly out monied the Democrats, going to give Paxton the money he needs?
I have stated before, for 2 years the weasel trans loving God awful Talarico was my representative
Just insane, any interaction with his office… just so far far left
Anyway , I ride my bike all over the 1100 house neighborhood and Talarico has numerous signs , the usual houses, but maybe a few more.
He gets nothing but good press in Texas despite his insane positions
Paxton on the other hand gets, HE’S LOSING, HES CROOKED
And republicans don’t put signs out anymore cause they are afraid, and that’s the truth. They don’t want their cars scratched , animals poisoned, house put on fire
I’m going to knock on doors for Paxton, but this once red red district near Austin is purple, as Austin got to expensive, the monsters moved out here.
Doesn’t seem even having kids matters to them anymore
A Fox News poll had Kamala beating Trump by a wide margin.
Fox News is trash and its polls are trash also.
They’re pro Bush gop and hate Paxton.
Nothing here.
Get out and vote people.
There are (unfortunately) a number of ‘Doomer’ Republicans in Texas who would rather see a frothing leftist elected to public office than a Republican who has even the slightest hint of conservative. (we see them in Kansas far too often). This election will run on turnout. The Dems will whip their base into a frenzy with as many lies and media smears as they can in order to drive their sheep-like voters to the polls. All the proclamations of Talarico about how moderate and reasonable he is will fly out the window if he is elected, and he’ll vote like Stalin for the next six years. So I’m praying enough Texans see though the Dem BS and vote Republican. Yeah, we’re not perfect. But we are a (censored) lot better than the alternative.
“Some of Talarico’s best groups are Black voters, moderates, voters under age 30, Hispanic voters, women and voters with a college degree.”
They left out “the mentally ill, the gender confused, the lazy, and those with pink hair”.
This is what happens when people believe that sitting out an election “wastes their vote.” Republicans who don’t support the MAGA candidate should not vote for Talarico just in order to say “I voted.” If Talarico wins, they will have a share of responsibility for him. They would be on much higher moral and ethical ground by not voting at all. You only truly waste your vote when you give it to a candidate you don’t really support, but are voting for because of “the feels.”
Personally, I have withheld my vote entirely for some offices (including that of the POTUS) when none of the candidates were worthy of my support.
“Those who choose the lesser evil forget very quickly that they choose evil.”
Hannah Arendt
Hey Man I feel that. It could also be argued that by holding aloof and refusing to make the tough choice between lesser or greater evil one has usually enabled the greater evil. ‘All that is necessary for evil to prosper is for good Men to stand aside and do nothing’. I’ve voted for lesser evil quite a bit for lack of better options. Since I’m a (small l) libertarian at heart my perfect candidate is never a realistic option but just like the movie Hickory ‘my team’s on the floor’ b/c those.are guys we have who earned the right to be on the floor. I wish we always had great candidates but we don’t, we got what we got and its either the flawed guy or usually a far worse option. Politics isn’t about morality but about raw power and IMO if we choose not to resist the greater evil then at minimum no whining when he takes and uses raw power acquired when the battlefield was ceded to him against us.
And the key is to work to 1) produce better candidates that move closer to your “perfect” candidate, and 2) to work toward moving the electorate back in the direction of voting for those better candidates.
Anything else is either watching the airplane slowly accelerate into the ground or jumping out the door without a parachute. Failure is not inevitable here, but you have to work to change things.
Agreed. Its up to everyone at their local level to do what it takes to fix their own precinct, school district, municipality, County, Congressional District and State. The Parents entrenched interests and establishment will push back against reform b/c they either benefit from the current system or are too stubborn/hide bound to understand what they’re doing isn’t working.
Folks who sit back and wait on the Feds in Congress or at Presidential level to ‘save them’ from the politicians/bad policies closer to home gotta get out the wagon and push for themselves. Nobody can do it for them. Others can help but offering a hand is way different than doing it for them when they won’t be bothered or care enough to roll up their sleeves.
So, you’re going to fall for the Bandwagon Effect they’re trying to produce?
C’mon, Elizabeth, you’re supposed to be smarter than this.
Talarico SOUNDs like a reasonable person, but the Paxton campaign needs to really work on revealing his absolutely disgusting nature.
The Bushies are upset once again. This poll is meaningless. Typical push poll bs. The polls had Cruz losing to Beto right up until Cruz buried him.
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