Uh Oh: Democrats Far Outraising Republicans in Key Senate Races
“Strong fund-raising showings in the second quarter, combined with a dominant performance in the first quarter, mean that Democrats now hold a cash inflow advantage in all of the key Senate races except Iowa.”
Fundraising totals reported to the Federal Election Commission for the first half of the year suggest Republican Senate candidates are facing a formidable financial challenge this fall. In eight of the nine key Senate races, Democratic nominees have dramatically outraised their Republican opponents.
According to The New York Times, “Strong fund-raising showings in the second quarter, combined with a dominant performance in the first quarter, mean that Democrats now hold a cash inflow advantage in all of the key Senate races except Iowa.”
Nowhere is this more evident than in Texas, where Democratic nominee James Talarico recorded $54.5 million in donations on June 30, compared with just $3.9 million for Republican Ken Paxton. To be sure, Paxton did not secure the GOP nomination until May 26, giving him less time to raise money, but the disparity is still striking.
Talarico’s impressive second-quarter fundraising haul demonstrates how badly Democrats want to flip this seat. Beyond bringing them one seat closer to retaking the Senate majority, winning in Texas would deliver a huge symbolic victory for the party.
But Talarico’s commanding fundraising advantage has yet to translate into a lead in the polls. Despite his personal baggage, Paxton currently holds a narrow 0.6-point edge over Talarico in the RealClearPolitics polling average and is favored to win by a 57% to 43% margin in the betting markets. Most pundits believe that, as close as this race looks, Paxton will prevail in the end.
Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised $33.4 million during the first half of the year, dwarfing the $3.2 million raised by his Republican challenger, Mike Collins. Ossoff is widely expected to retain his seat. He is currently ahead by 5.5 points in the RCP polling average and the betting markets currently show him with an 86% chance of victory. This seat will likely remain in the blue column.
Former Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has raised $23.8 million through June 30 compared to Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, with $6.8 million. Husted was appointed to the Senate by Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine in January 2025 to fill the seat vacated by J.D. Vance.
This race is considered a true toss-up. While Brown has a slight 0.6% lead in the RCP average, Husted’s chance of winning in the betting markets is 52%.
Brown lost his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024. It’s important to note that Moreno did not lead in a single public poll until the final two weeks of the campaign and ultimately won by 3.6 points. Trump won the state by 11.2%.
Democrats’ best chances of flipping Republican-held Senate seats are in North Carolina and Alaska. North Carolina’s open Senate seat is currently occupied by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, who is retiring. The state’s current Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has raised $16.1 million this year compared to his opponent, former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, with $5.8 million. Cooper currently holds a 7.3 point lead in the RCP average and his odds of winning are 86%. This seat is likely to flip.
The jury is still out in Alaska. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has raised $15.5 million compared to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R) six-month total of $3.6 million. In a New York Times/Siena poll conducted in late June — the only national poll conducted of this race in 2026 — Sullivan was ahead by 2 points, making the contest a toss-up.
In Maine, as the world knows, Democratic candidate Graham Platner withdrew from his race against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner raised $13.1 million in the first half of this year versus Collins’ $8.4 million. His strong, early 7-point lead over Collins dwindled to 0.7 points as the drip, drip, drip of allegations against him took their toll. Collins is well-known for outperforming her polls and my guess is that she will hang onto her seat.
In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, is running for the open seat currently held by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who is retiring. Pappas, who has raised $6.8 million compared to his nearest Republican competitor, the former Gov. John Sununu, with just $2.3 million. Pappas leads by 3.3 points in the RCP average. Stripping out a March poll, Pappas’ lead increases to 4.5 points and his Polymarket odds of winning are 83%.
Michigan holds its Democratic Senate primary on August 4. Candidates are vying for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Gary Peters (D), who is retiring. Primary voters will choose between far-left candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who has raised $6.8 million and Rep. Haley Stevens (D), who is currently ahead and has raised $3.9 million. The winner will face Republican nominee Mike Rogers in the general election. It is anyone’s guess who will win. But even if one of the Democrats prevail in November, it will not be a flip.
That leaves Iowa as the only one of the key Senate races in which the Republican candidate has outraised the Democrat. Rep. Ashley Hinson has brought in $5.3 million, compared with $4.6 million for Democratic challenger Josh Turek. The race is tied in the RCP polling average, but Hinson holds a modest edge in the betting markets, with Polymarket giving her a 61% chance of victory.
🔵 Democrats are out raising Republicans in nearly every key 2026 midterm race. pic.twitter.com/Dhfh98MzE0
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 16, 2026
Democrats must retain their seats in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and flip four of the following red seats in order to win back control of the Senate: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas.
The latest data from the Federal Election Committee shows that Democrats have built an imposing financial advantage across the Senate map. It remains to be seen whether those dollars translate into the four-seat net gain they need to reclaim the majority.
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Comments
The enthusiasm gap is quite worrisome.
It is hard to get enthusiastic about voting for the lesser of two evils.
The Texas GOPe is furious that Cornyn got dumped by the voters. The scuttlebutt I have been hearing that the Texas GOP moneybags that usually fund Republican candidates are either sitting this one out – or funneling money to Talarico, who is ideologically similar to Cornyn. It would not surprise me if Paxton gets outspent 10-1 in this race.
I’m skeptical that Republicans are funneling money to Talarico. If push comes to shove, do they really want Talarico as their senator? I don’t think so.
Why would I (or any conservative) send money to the GOP? It’s not like they ever do anything when in office. They talk a good game and fundraise off of fear. But once in office they somehow always find out they’re powerless to actually DO anything. Unless you send them more money of course. Then they find out that’s not enough either….
I get weary of this position. “The Republicans are no where close to perfect, and even though even in their imperfection and corruption they are far better than the alternative, I refuse to support them.”
Lovely, simply lovely.
congress, not the house
This comment makes no sense. I hit the “thumbs up” too fast. How can you say
….Rs are not close to perfect, but in their imperfection and corruption they are better than the alternative…” And not support them.
LOOK WHAT DJT has done:
Reduced or eliminated taxes for seniors and PT workers who work overtime;
crime is plummeting, ;
So many kids disappeared after “crossing the Biden border) DJT’s NICE operation has found some but the Dems didn’t track where they (Ds) sent/sold them.
Income tax refunds appear to be up
Iran is dicey as because anyone, any country, etc. trying to deal with any Islamic practitioner learn THEY LIE. Trump tried the negotiation for three months – Iran won’t sign anything and abide by it.
Iran = Trump was the one who FINALLY did something about Iran
Fraud is off the charts – Trump is the first to go after it
Your comment ‘….far better than the alternative….I refuse to support them” – makes no sense.
You turn Congress over to Ds, the next cycle will simply eliminate the plusses I listed above (and this list is NOWHERE near complete). Sitting back is NOT the answer.
You mis-understand me. I am responding to Irish gladiator who says” “Why would I (or any conservative) send money to the GOP? It’s not like they ever do anything when in office.”
I criticize this refusal to support Republicans because in his opinion they never do anything. I say it’s stupid not to support Republicans because you think they don’t do enough. I am saying that the Democrats are worse,
Send them $5 with a note saying you hope when the dems take all the branches of the house they’re arrested and tried under the “new” supreme court let by ketangi.
Maybe Thune shouldn’t have pissed away $150 million trying to save Cornyn rather than pass the SAVE act, huh?
Republicans always poll poorly. A 50 50 race should at least lean red.
That and how much money did Harris go through (in record time) to no good effect?
Sometimes donations are a measure of panic, not of support.
Excellent point
There is no shortage of communist shitheads like “Stinky” Soros & Sons with money to burn in the attempt to promote subversive assholes, in order to overthrow our Constitutional Republic.
If fundraising determines victory, why should we bother to go through the mummery of voting?
It helps being the party of millionaires and billionaires. We are just the party of the trillionaire.
Trillionaire status was brief unfortunately.
Money is often an illusion in politics. Voting happens in November. All too often money is championed as the determining factor. It’s not. Beto out raised Cruz and still got shellacked. Cooper is carrying the weight of his soft on crime results. Multiple victims of murder from criminals who should have been behind bars. Ohio knows who Brown is and his abysmal track record in DC. The demonrats squandered 1.5 billion in 3 1/2 months in 2024 to no avail. As a donor I have made modest contributions to individual candidates. One of the races that was not covered in this story is Minnesota. Michelle Tafoya has a solid chance to pick up that seat. Minnesota is fed up with Waltz, Ellison, et all.
Very true. Most of the polling in MN has been of the Democratic primaries. The last public poll that included Tafoya was in Feb.
These Dems aren’t “Raising” money ion their states, it is all from out of state groups to oust Republicans. Talarico hasn’t a prayer in TX and they can spend billions but it won’t help. Ossoff in GA is a total loser and he one from almost total donations from out of state. Money is one way to judge a race but as Hillary found out, not the best!
$ isn’t everything in campaigns but it ain’t nothing either. It can show enthusiasm for a particular candidate when the local in district/in State small donor contributions are the driver. It can also be deceitful if we just look at totals and not how much was out of State $. Then there’s the separate PAC $. More import now b/c we’ve just expanded the amount of coordination of spending between PAC and candidate.
Shove a ton of $ into a particular contest and it does make a difference. It can create the appearance of inevitability which boosts actual enthusiasm to vote for on the fence voters who might otherwise not show up to vote for a ‘loser’ b/c they drank too much Doomer ‘it doesn’t matter, the fix is in’ kool aid.
As Rush Limbaugh used to say “I’ll tell you when it’s time to panic”
Nobody pays attention to politics at this time of year.
The polls will tithe up by October.
Who cares about how much money the dems raise.
Most of them are millionaires and billionaires.
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/07/18/no-mahalo-for-you-hawaii-supreme-court-issues-unhinged-screed-denoucing-the-united-states-supreme-court/
Notably, Eddins cited Justice Jackson as the model of true fealty to the law. He is not the first state supreme court justice to do so, as discussed earlier in a case from the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Since her confirmation in 2022, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has established a legacy that is fast becoming one of the most radical in the Court’s history. Her sole dissents have drawn sharp criticism from conservative and liberal colleagues.
These federal and state Supreme Court opinions are a glimpse into what awaits the country if Democratic leaders carry out their threat to take over the Supreme Court by adding four liberal justices in the image of Justice Jackson.
Looks like Soros and Gates are really spending this year.
I don’t live in Texas and was getting near constant youtube ads for talarico. That money is coming from*everywhere*. While it’s not great that these assholes are getting this much it’s not a strict indicator of how they’ll do in the actual election.
It’s war on Iran time, FIFA time, smoke from Canada time, China messing with our elections time; it’s explosive diarrhea time, oof! and it’s summertime, Who’s got time to pay attention to midterms?
The big donors of the Ds have learned to focus their money on races where they think they can control the votes of that particular candidate once in Congress. Won’t support DNC if they are unhappy with anything.
DNC is in debt and big donors are not contributing ti DNC
RNC – MUCH BETTER than DNC but they must start spending some of their cash.
When I’m not generally surfing the net or reading ebooks On my iPad, I’m viewing a LOT of YouTube content. Factual content and Reddit stories. When I’m doing so i get interrupted by multiple (D) ads asking for my help to fight against Orange Man Bad. Never seen an (R) ad.
So I’m not too surprised if (D) fundraising is doing OK.
We tried a new restaurant yesterday. I was just far enough away from the bar that although I couldn’t hear the TV, I could still make out most of the text if I concentrated. Ad after ad from Arizona RINOs slinging mud at Arizona MAGA candidates (who are well in the lead). Not a single ad from any of the MAGA candidates. I’m thinking to myself, what station have these people tuned into? If it’s the local ABC affiliate, I’m going to rethink patronizing this place. Come station break on the hour, it’s.. the local Fox network affiliate. SIGH.