Who will win Utah’s 4th district?
*UPDATE 11:56PM: Ben McAdams now leads by 739 votes.
*UPDATE 2:43PM: Love now has a lead of 1,516 votes over her Democrat challenger.
Rep. Mia Love (R-UT) has pulled ahead as officials continue to count votes for the race for Utah’s 4th Congressional District.
From The Salt Lake Tribune:
Rep. Mia Love widened her lead over Democratic challenger Ben McAdams on Monday after a morning update from Utah County.
Love, a two-term Republican congresswoman, is current winning the race by 1,516 votes, or 0.58 percentage points, outside the margin for a recount in Utah’s 4th Congressional District.
Counties must certify their election results by Tuesday, and thousands of votes remain outstanding in Salt Lake County, where McAdams has so far captured a majority of votes. But since jumping ahead on Election Day, McAdams has seen Love steadily bite into and ultimately reverse his winning margin.
The latest tally has Love up by 419 votes over Democrat Ben McAdams. She previously trailed by 1,169 votes.
— Ben Winslow (@BenWinslow) November 16, 2018
The lead comes after President Donald Trump bashed her for losing the election because she didn’t show him any love or embraced him.
However, Love never really lost because officials decided the race was too close to ever call.
The Salt Lake Tribune reported that provisional ballots is the only way for McAdams to regain the lead:
This is the first year Utah has had same-day voter registration, and in Salt Lake County, at least, about 9,000 of the 16,373 provisional ballots they have to count came from those same-day voters.
The bigger question is who will provisional ballots favor? There is a strong case to be made that they will favor McAdams.
Studies have shown that, nationwide, voters who cast provisional ballots tend to be younger and often minorities — those groups tend to vote for Democrats.
And in Utah, people who register on the day of the election are also likely to be first-time voters, meaning they are more likely to be young people. What brings them to the polls for the first time? Likely not the candidates, but the ballot provisions — especially Proposition 2, the medical marijuana initiative — that spiked turnout across the state.
But the publication admits that it’s hard to tell which way it will go “because Love so far has been beating McAdams three-to-one in Utah County returns.” The Salt Lake Tribune continued:
So here’s my thinking: McAdams has a floor on the Salt Lake County provisionals that is probably 54 percent. His ceiling could conceivably be in the low 60s, but I think something around 58 percent is more likely. (As it happens, he got 58 percent of the Salt Lake County votes reported Friday.)
Love will likely still see numbers hold around 75 percent out of the Utah County provisionals, and possibly drop a couple points (she got 72 percent of Friday’s Utah County report).
Net result: If we estimate that about 2,900 of the outstanding Utah County provisionals are in the 4th District and if Love gets 72 percent, she’ll gain 1,276 votes there, bringing the margin to a daunting 1,695.
In other words, McAdams needs 59% of the provisional ballots in Salt lake County.DONATE
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